Tuesday, April 7, 2009
I cannot give specific trading advice in this forum. I can say that we have had one hell of a rally, earnings season is here, and the economies of the West continue to contract.
Yes, markets tend to bottom before the economy does. "Tend" is not a bl**dy guarantee. The U.S. equity market P/E is nowhere near past ratios at market bottoms. That does not mean all sectors will bottom at the same time, and that some might be close. I am not long much in the way of equities at the moment, though I am not nearly as gloomy about them as I was a couple weeks ago.
We all know the 3 kinds of lies: Mine, yours, and statistics. Well, the government statisticians are among the best when it come deception.
Since they must come clean at some point, it seems to be that they simply understate a problem in the current month news cycles, and then use revisions for months past to bring the data into sync. I do not know the wisdom of this course of action - maybe it serves a purpose of confidence - but it does mean one cannot depend on the data in order to make decisions. This is a big problem, in my opinion, as there is no other entity which compiles the data.
The ticking time bomb that is our PUBLIC PENSION SYSTEM has gone off, and they only thing that our state and local governments can think to do is attempt to extract BY FORCE more money from their citizens to pay for STUPID PROMISES made to municipal workers.
There is no better propagandist than the N.E.A. Your local P.B.A. (police) might not be too far behind, but they PALE in comparison to the MASTER (second only to religion in the false claims and exaggerated promises department) - the National Education Association.
You can't get through a newspaper article it seems without some reference to teachers pay and how they have the most important job in America Blah, Blah, Blah... (BS! PARENTING is the most important job.) Don't pity the poor teachers. Nobody held a gun to their head, and they have more time off than anybody I know. The sad fact is that the Teacher's lobby, the NEA, has held education BACK in America AND extorted one hell of a pension deal in the process.
A pension deal that WILL absolutely, positively be defaulted upon. BUT, not until attempts by our local and state governments to continue this &%^!! mess lead to tax revolts and foreclosures for PROPERTY TAXES. Think about that... putting people OUT OF THEIR HOMES in an attempt to keep the NEA, PBA, etc... happy by continuing an outrageously stupid system of public employee pensions.
I get peptic just thinking and writing about it.
Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
Posted by The Short Story Man at 5:21 AM