Is the Glass half full or half empty?
Have I overstayed my welcome in the Bear camp?
Yes, unemployment is a lagging indicator, but new claims for unemployment are a leading indicator. Is the contraction over in manufacturing? Or was this month's data the inevitable bump? The stock market seems to be telling us that things are improving... or is it that inflation has finally been reigited?
The data for Oil inventories still says the world is contracting, and that the world is sending more of its oversupplied Oil to the U.S., which is still oversupplied at the moment... yet oil has caught a bid...
At times like this a trader has 2 options: Go with the trend... or stay out of the game. If you go with the trend, have no patience for positions that go against you.
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One of my personal "indicators" is finally getting some press:
"Number of Americans receiving food assistance at all time record"
Nah... it will never make the economic indicators radar screen in Washington or Wall Street, but it should.
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Here is a prime example of a social program run awry.
Disability is easily one of the most abused programs in America. We all know that more than half of these claimants are just life's failures: N'er do wells, drunks, addicts, etc... among other things. Yes there are real people that are disabled. Then again, one of the top producing brokers on Wall Street is paralyzed from the chest down - somehow he makes it into work and makes 7 figures every year... The truth is most of these claimants have lost their enthusiasm for work and life, and now they want you to provide for them.
Hell of a program!
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The market is burying the shorts alive. Glad I am not short.
Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com
2 comments:
Its interesting to watch the markets bounce on the feelgood of Obama and World Leaders (sounds like a rock band!) smiling and making happy-sounding noises at G20. But nothing has changed and when the dust settles reality will reassert itself, as it always does.
The debts, the unemployment, the stagnant retail, auto and housing markets, the bankrupt banks, the lack of credit; none of it has gone away.
I think the markets are just gathering themselves for the next leap into the chasm. Wanting there to be good news doesn't mean that good news is really there.
Hey Donal:
Perhaps. Or perhaps market prices fully reflect all of those issues. That is the $64 Trillion question.
Our family vacation happened to coincide with the biggest monthly rally in 25 years... AGHGHGHGHGH!!!
I can't help it. I love to trade. Maybe I need and "Intervention"...
Hope all is well.
G
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