When the U.S. tries to get up, the oil import crisis will be there (and may already be here... the question is who is going down faster oil imports or the economy).
Holy Moly!
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This Blog is a forum for an ongoing discussion of energy and politics. All political commentary is admittedly Libertarian AND Pacifist in its leanings in the extreme. If you have a particular bias to believe what you read in the Mainstream Media... this is not the Blog for you. If you are willing to question everything... read on!
5 comments:
And yet today energy prices across the board are down. There must be a few investors who realize the oil supply is about to contract. Where are they?
Jeffers is referring to Jeffrey Browns idea that this will be a race to the bottom between oil depletion and economic contraction.
In other words, assuming that the US and global economy are on a general path of contraction mainly due to contracting energy supplies......
>When economic contraction surges ahead of geologic depletion (or oil imports to the importing nations), oil will be temporarily be in over supply and oil price will temporarily drop.
>When oil depletion surges ahead of economic contraction(either geolologic depletion or Export Land), then the world will be in undersupply and prices will rise. This would also happen during periods of economic growth that spike demand.
>So, theoretically, we could go all the way down to neglible oil production and have the oil price remain stable or even drop throughout the period because the general havoc(war?) would be destroying economic demand faster than oil depletion is proceeding.
Realistically, as depletion proceeds, the value of petroleum will rise because it is finally recognized that you can't have economic growth or stability(or food for 7 Billion people) without it. It would also drive up prices of everything because oil is the critical link in every chain.
Of course, the oil importing nations(us) will really be under the gun because of oil nationalism and ELM principles ie producers going into hoard mode and cutting oil exports faster than general depletion.
http://agonist.org/don/20081006/tshtf
If you can't stand a cuss word or ten, don't go.
So whats the deal with Iceland. It appears they are about ready to pull an Argentina?
Hummm new issue I never even thought about. Can the European nations coordinate with one another effectively enough to implement any real bailout in Europe or will their national differences result in complications.
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