"Who are?"
"Delta Team, Sir."
"Not Goldman or Morgan, they made it out alive."
"They're dead too, sir. Got killed on Wall Street, didn't even know it."
There are NO bids on Wall Street. There is no capital. Fundamentals do not, and will not, work in this environment. Even if they did, the fundamentals are not readily apparent at the moment. This does not mean that a huge rally could not happen tomorrow. Or a huge crash.
The big guys are gone. Gone are the days when "Big Broker" (Goldman Sachs)'s head equity trader would stroll up to the hoot and holler box (I KNOW I am dating myself with that one), and declare they were a million share buyer for any of the following 50 names at the then and there price.
Oil? Oil is priced by the marginal barrel of supply/demand. Right now, who can tell what that is? Visibility could show up tomorrow... but right now, I can't see my hand in front of my face. At the moment, Oil is following equities. If equities were playing to Oil, equities would be going up as Oil went down.
Stocks? Good grief, the rally could come soon in time, but far away in price - or not. (From Dow 6000 to Dow 7200 is a 20% rally, and at this pac that could happen next week. Does that give you any comfort?)
Bonds? TOO LATE.
The markets are pricing in the recession of the century, in breadth, depth, and length.
Good Luck!
Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
1 comment:
Yet because of the way humans are today, and our endless optimism in the future, we will never utter the unspeakable "D" word in mixed company. The times are indeed different. We appear to have enough food (transporting it is another matter), and government spending is 20% of GDP instead of single digits like 75 years ago. But what happens if the oil peaking changes the food calculus, and the Fed. govt. can't borrow anymore. A different kind of depression, perhaps. Stock up! On everything! :)
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