The U.S. Air Transportation Association reports that for the first time, fuel has become the single highest cost component – 25.4 %. And fuel was about 20% cheaper in Q3 than today’s price. Meanwhile, FedEx issued its second profit warning in as many months on increasing fuel costs and declining demand.

Major investors in the U.S. automobile industry forecast 2008 to be the worst car market in 15 years.

China’s year over year October oil imports increased 16.5%, while world production declined just under 1 % and net exports of oil declined better than 3%.

Heating Oil for this winter’s delivery are at record prices, while inventories are declining at precisely the time when they were building in the past.

The U.S. Housing market, essentially our only manufacturer, is on the canvas bleeding from every hole in its head. (Where are those experts that were quoted in South Florida’s newspapers in early 2006 saying the market would recover within a quarter or two? Laughing all the way to the bank at your expense, cashing checks from the developers and brokers that paid them, sometimes directly and sometimes through “public relations” firms, for their expert spin.)

Yet the American mainstream media continues to report our energy situation in a “balanced” way, a way that gives equal exposure to the thoughts and ideas of a very vocal, and very wrong, few. A few who clearly did not put their money (or their client’s money) where their mouths were – if they had they would have been reduced to penury and litigation long ago and even the myopic morons calling themselves journalists would be able to clearly see that these emperors have no clothes. A few who continue to make their case in the complete absence of empirical data, while the media continues to abdicate their responsibility of keeping the American people informed and instead continues to opt for Mark Twain’s famous “misinformed”.

For those of us who have worked a lifetime to provide for our families and secure their future, we are at a cusp; choose wisely and prosper, or choose poorly and see your life’s efforts confiscated in a vicious bout of hyperinflation, disappearing home equity, and the shrinking purchasing power of your diminishing sources of income.

The markets are shouting their dire warnings to you in the form of commodity prices and oil supply constraints. On the other side are the establishment Wall Street firms, politicos, and media with a tremendous interest in maintaining the status quo for as long as possible - irrespective of the certainty of the outcome I describe.

What to do? Follow your mother’s advice: DO YOUR HOMEWORK!! And reading the newspapers does not count.

Yours for a better (post fossil fuel) world,


Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com