Sunni vs Shia in MENA

Today's Quote:


“There has to be a major rethinking of how the U.S. engages with that (MENA) part of the world. We have to make clear that our security no longer comes at the expense of poor governance and no rights for the people in those countries.  All of the givens are gone.” - Christopher Boucek, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace


I got a couple of emails from old friends of mine that read my blog about my political analysis in the MENA.  Seems I have not been entirely clear.

I do not think that the MENA will erupt into handholding democrats singing the praises of James Madison anytime soon. I do think that after a period of insanity much of the MENA will evolve into something of a democracy. Could a protracted civil war between Sunni and Shia evolve in the region? Yes, but suspect it will not go on for all that long. In the meantime, I absolutely, positively foresee terrible struggles for power in much of the region that will send Oil to $150 - $250. If I knew exactly when any of this would occur, I would be able to save a great many lives with a few strategically placed phone calls.... alas, that is not to be. I am long WTI futures, so I am eating my own cooking.  Irrespective of whoever takes over from the regimes now in power I think the price of Oil goes much, much higher.

But I could be wrong. Oil could go to $300 (or $70, but I think that very unlikely as there is now a new, and semi permanent risk premium in the Oil markets.). No matter what, I would not be short Oil here.

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Not a smoker myself, but I love the premise. This is pretty much how I feel about growing my own food.

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Police agencies brace for federal budget cuts?  Wah. Best news I've heard in some time. Time for these people to engage in cost benefit analysis. We need police protection, not police harassment and loss of our Constitutional rights via silly legislation that has only been enforced because of outrageous government spending.

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The end of occupation land war?  Thank G-D!!! And its only a nice start. While we are at it, let's reconsider dropping bombs from airplanes onto population centers and wasting money on carrier groups that technology will make obsolete.  These forces were developed to protect petroleum tankers on the high seas and not for any other reason... we have less than 20 years of oil on ships left in the history of mankind, and perhaps less than 10 with volume worth sweating. Get with the program.

And Secretary Gates, you are a good and honorable man... you don't need to sugar coat things so much. It is what it is. Many of our best and brightest future military leaders will best serve society in other capacities.

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Not a few of my Liberal friends read my stuff, and couple of them actually called me in dismay after reading my post about my theory of how abortion, among other things, contributed to the liberal birth dearth/baby bust. Its brutal to be confronted with the realities of demographics. There is good news, dearest Libs: You can marry and have babies anytime you want to.  Here's an excellent piece on the analysis of home economics and relationship management using the classical economic theory of comparative advantage.  I thought you folks might find this helpful.

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When will people stop doing this to themselves? If we can figure that out, we will have the answer to inflation or deflation.



And the beat goes on.



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