Just a bit overwhelmed with Spring duties on the farm. Not Spring where you are? It is here in the Southland... or nearly so.
More on the homestead later.
Events in the MENA are careening where they will, with no shortage of propaganda being planted in the MSM (remember Jeffers Media Theory: No story makes its way into America's media bottleneck that has not been paid for and planted by a very powerful special interest group). Since Al Queda has been impotent for nigh on a decade (and it only cost us a couple HUNDRED BILLION $ per year), and they are being swept aside by the tides of history, those that benefit from America's humungous war machine needs a new Boogey Man ("BM", perhaps for bowel movement), and we seem to have found our BM, at least for now, in Iran. Aside from Iran's attempt at a nuclear threat, which is very real and must be addressed (even a pacifist like me sees a problem with that bunch of loonies having a bomb lying around) I have absolutely no fear of Iran's Revolutionary Guards taking the beach near my Florida home. Not even a little bit.
Like it or not, democracy is spreading to the MENA AND China. Its coming to a city near you. The U.S. doesn't have to lift a finger (although it will, but that will likely do more harm than good). Problem is, it DOES mean the end of 2 figure Oil. The PEOPLE (remember THEM?) of the MENA know that they have not benefitted whatsoever as these regimes squandered their precious resources to keep the ROW happy (and the bribes and tributes coming).
Of course, some of these nations will go through some terrible stuff to get where they are going. Believe you me, not a single person in the Special Interest Groups gives a good fart about the suffering of The People of the MENA... anything they have to say is a manipulative effort to further their own interests. But say it they will. This will needs be sorted out by The People, and I completely reject the idea of Americans shedding any blood in the process (or helping anybody else shed theirs).
The tidal wave builds, and nothing can stop it. The regimes in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Nigeria, et al, have all got a laser gunsight covering them. They will not survive for long.
(Speaking of Saudi Arabia.... an unidentified source said they flipped a switch and made up for the 1 million BPD in Libyan light Sweet! LMAO!! ROFL!! LOL!! Oh, my goodness... get a grip. IF, and its a big IF, KSA has that kind of shut in (and boy are we about to find out the TRUTH about all such claims) that they can flip a switch on it most certainly is not light and sweet, and it most certainly has not made its way to the markets. Please think of the shipping logistics. I am getting peptic just writing this... the level of unhanded disinformation is just outrageous.)
We here in the U.S., and the rest of Oil importing West, are back on borrowed time. The Mother of ALL oil shocks is on its way, as the Mother of ALL political shocks is coming to Saudi Arabia.
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10 comments:
Jeff,
I am somewhat disappointed with your political analysis of the MENA. You really think for a second the people there want democracy? You really think the individuals who set themselves on fire in Tunisia and Egypt were calling out for a voice, the right to vote and human rights? Get a clue, these people were brutally oppressed for decades and you think over night they decided to start a revolt? These people are living off $2 per day and the price of food has nearly doubled in the past 8 months. Who gives a damn about democracy and human rights if you can't put calories in your stomach! This is a food led revolution and the MSM are spinning the story as a fight for democracy.
As for Iran, you really think the government want these weapons to blow Israel off the map? C'mon if they were to do that Israel will retaliate and wipe out the entire culture of the pride Persians. Perhaps Iran wants these weapons to protect themselves from Western aggression? Iran isn't producing their oil at its fullest potential and that's incentive for us to change their regime and fix the problem. That's why we went into Iraq. The Iraqi oil ministry there thinks they can get oil production up to 7-8 million barrels per day, up from their 2.5 million historical production. Sure it might take 8 years to ramp up but that's a significant increase in the country's oil production potential.
-Liberal Arts College Student
This ME chaos with triple digit oil will be a game changer for the overindebted western nations- particularly the US which is losing control over the oil, security, and petrodollar system.
Best, Marshall
Dear Liberal Arts College Student:
I will be happy to lay out my sense of things and vision of what I think is going on in the MENA... but please don't tell me to "get a clue". I HAVE a clue, though I may be proved wrong... but not because I haven't given it hours of thought and gamed theoried it till I held my breath... OF COURSE, other outcomes are possible... but not in the medium or long term... only in the short term. What I am saying to you is this: irrespective of what the individual that set himself ablaze WANTED forces have been unleashed.
The MENA will get some form of democracy. Their people are all under 30! And have been exposed to the internet (porn, facebook, youtube....) and they are completely uninterested in going back to the 15th century. There are other forces at work (financial dealings in the international banking markets in particular) that will make further dictatorships very, very untenable.
Will Libya enter a decade of civil war? Perhaps. Certainly not every country in the region.
Time will tell, my young friend. Don't watch too much TV... it will taint you mind...
Also...
These countries are not created equally... food prices for the major oil exporters are a political issue, not an economic one.
More on this when I have time
And no, I don't think these peoples are hearing the echos of Thomas Jeffers and James Madison... I think that they recognize that they have only one workable option.
I was thinking about the food issue too. Food prices certainly seemed to be the trigger in Egypt but not the cause. The unifying cause across the Middle East seems to be repression. In Libya poverty is much less than the regions average in both nominal and real terms, which contrasts with Egypt where it is much greater. However, unemployment is much higher in Libya, my guess is Kadafi used foreign workers on his public works projects instead of Libyans in order to keep Libyans completely dependent on him. A semi-functioning economy would lessen his power.
My guess is we will see many different triggers across the Middle East and many different outcomes. Some places like Egypt have a decent chance, while others will probably remain shi&holes. Poor Libya will probably descend into a Islamic caliphate and get even worse. It’s worth noting that freedom also means freedom to fail; or freedom to choose one man, one vote, one time.
N.b. I include North Africa in the Middle East; it makes more sense than the arbitrary lines on the map.
Best,
Dan
Some writers have reported a slightly different bent especially pertaining to the Algerian explosion. The case of the fruit vendor was given as a protest to needless regulation and fees with the final straw being that he was slapped and fined by a woman.
Of course if the food imports are being subsidized then it would not be out of the realm of possible that the governments are increasing fees and fines to off set it. Whatever the case is Greg is right there is no way SA is going to just flip a switch and make up for lost oil exports.
Just saw on the news where Egypt has the proposed reforms to their constitution and parties with religious affiliations remain banned from political activities. Still a long way to go but things are looking up for them.
Best,
Dan
Re; the other posts, I'd say the big factors in the ME are 50% or more of the population under 30 (big changes tend to be generational)and, as the country makes all its money from selling oil, the government doesn't need the tax revenue from creating jobs so has no incentive towards full employment, or even education.
On a different point: until now the USA has supported the oil-producing regimes in the ME, especially Saudi. They sell oil to the USa, and the USA sends them its money. Then Saudi et al invests or lends the money back to the USA.
All that is about to change. The new democratic regimes will have a more open agenda about who its friends are and, as the USA is tainted by its historic links, the USA'll find a lot less oil revenue coming back home. After all, if I were a Saudi, Egyption, or whatever investment manager, I'd be looking at BRICS and a whole long list of other countries before I'd go for dollars-denominated investments.
Bad news for the dollar and for interest rates, methinks.
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