Wednesday, March 5, 2014

The Oil Export Cat is out of the Bag

Regardless of whether or not Putin pushes the Oil export/US$ issue at this time is not the issue. To me, the issue is now reasonably clear.

I pointed out in 2 earlier posts, here and here,  that something very big has happened in "Export Land". During the past 5 months, Oil imports into the U.S. have fallen steeply. Its a zero sum game. Either the exporters are exporting less or the other importers are importing more; given the $10 to $15 rise in Oil prices during the period, I am going with less Oil exported. I could be wrong, but if Oil was backing up from non U.S; deliveries I would expect Oil to have fallen by $10+, not gained $10+.

We are talking 1 million bpd from Q3 to Q4. Where would that kind of drop come from? Saudi Arabia or Russia.

Is this part of Putin's set up? If I were working for CIA/ONI/NSA I would know. They have the tanker data (there are 4000+ Oil tankers plying the world trade. Data collected via satellite makes clear, down to the gallon, how much Oil is going to who) so I don't think there is any question about this among the top brass in D.C.

Putin launches an ICBM test? And tells the West (thru an underling, but believe me, there are no undisciplined leaks when you work for the former head of the KGB) that he has them by the Gishga's (that's a yiddish technical term for important parts of the male human anatomy) and that he can demolish the Fractional Reserve Banking system with a wave of his pen?

At this level, I do not believe in coincidences. I believe that Putin wants the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Congress, the intelligence agencies, and the Pentagon to know where he stands because he does not want the Administration to make a serious mistake and force his hand. Putin thinks like a chess player/Judo competitor. He is not a Low T, botoxed, metrosexual American. He is a genuine tough guy.  The real deal. You don't rise through the ranks of the KGB without tolerating quite well the smell and screams generated when blow torches are applied to human flesh .

I am not trying to paint a boogey man here. Bobby Fisher, chess master and world champion famously quiped that you play the man, not the board. This is my understanding of the man and I would play chess with him accordingly.

I don't think Putin wants to end US$ hegemony this way, but I do think he wants to end it because it is in his best interests to do so. What is the point of US$ hegemony in a world without Oil exports and the massive social programs' impacts on a currency created via lending? There is none! Putin has the Oil. Japan and China want Putin's Oil. Why would these parties wish to involve the U.S.'s paper currency in these transactions if they can come up with a new arrangement?

The U.S. continues to build a massive military. Those weapons are pointed at who?

China and Russia.

Why would those nations be interested in continuing to fund a weapons system that has them in the cross hairs? These 2 political cultures are dominated by chess players, mathematicians, scientists, and intelligence officers. They think differently than our political culture, dominated as it is by word smiths and people concerned with flag burning and gay marriage.

I don't know when Putin will end the US$ settlement of Oil in the world markets. I am absolutely convinced that he will end it, because it is in his best interests to end it, and because he holds all of the cards.

When this happens the fireworks will be of the shock and awe variety, though I do not know if it will be deflationary or inflationary. I can make an argument for it both ways.


tweell said...

A slight quibble - Japan wants the US involved, because China is in an acquisitive mood like Russia is. Without us, Japan starts giving up territory.

Also, we're downsizing the military. Obama's looking at an army smaller than before WWII. Plus that army has been politicized for feminist/gay objectives and trained/equipped for fighting insurgents, not other military.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

I think that Japan DID want us for our nuclear umbrella... they can get the same service from Russia... and since they will be one of Russia's largest fossil fuel customers, it is in Russia's best interests to provide that service.

The rate of change here is bananas and it is accelerating.

PioneerPreppy said...

Russia or China (Or both) will end U.S. dollar domination when they are forced to. SO far they have not been forced to do it all they have to do is show the card. They have us just where they wanted us. Due to the US debt and it's dependency on debt fueled social programs which is the ONLY glue holding the Multi-Cult together.

So far it is more useful to them to keep us in a debt weakened state.

Publius said...

The best point you and other commentators have made is that the fallout from an end to US dollar hegemony, or economic warfare, would hit Americans far harder than most other peoples: Americans can't tolerate the slightest decrease in debt accumulation, income, or government spending.

Rural people in the USA, and those of us from rural areas and with actual skills will probably survive somehow, but the masses of people on welfare who don't even know how to grow a tomato - egads, it won't be pretty.

I second a few of the others, also, regarding Putin - he may be somewhat ruthless, but he doesn't seem to engage in cruelty for its own sake. I would have to say that our sociopathic politicians definitely revel in torture and cruelty. I am sure most here are familiar with Hillary Clinton's callous laughing about Gaddafi's death, or Madeleine Albright's cold calculation about a million children's deaths in Iraq being "worth it," or John McCain's jokes about bombing Iran. And it goes on and on... One does not hear that kind of sick bombast from the Russians.

Again, this American illness of cruelty and callousness is part of the reason I am now seriously trying to emigrate.

Anonymous said...

I think the fat lady's starting to make some noise...

Stephen B.

Anonymous said...

Just now got back online; but that is basically what I'm talking about. Japan wants security assurances but they want them to be credible. For maximum impact, and a reduction in risk, they want everyone involved to see them as credible; especially China. Russia's manufacturing isn't so hot and Japan's is excellent, so they have more to offer than yen or trade, they have technical knowledge.

KSA wants security guarantees, they sell their oil for dollars then buy t - bills. I'm also pretty sure they would also put us at the front of the line so to speak. After all we are premium customers. However, king Abdullah won't be doing it our of the goodness of his heart.

And so on and so forth. But, all of that depends on the quality of our guarantees.


P.s. Also I don't think China has all that much leverage with regards to our debt. If we just don't pay we're instantly screwed. However, in the event of a conflict, no one will expect us to give them money to buy weapons to fire at us. Our weakness can become their lack of foreign exchange reserves. Any of these chest beating exercises with Japan can be escalated.

tweell said...

Japan and Russia have been arguing over the Kuril Islands for generations. Russia would be sure to demand that Japan drop its claim there in return for protection.

Also, Russia's word has been shown to be good only as long as the situation benefits them (that treaty again). Sorry, not buying that one.

Anonymous said...

The Chinese aren't just chess players, their big into the much more complex game of Go.


Greg T. Jeffers said...

Every nation's word (treaty) is only good as long as it is in their "interests".

Once a treaty "violates" a nation's "interests", that treaty is up for immediate negotiation - by any means necessary. Russia is no different than the U.S in this regard.

Anonymous said...