Thursday, May 5, 2011

So Much for Commodity Inflation

Well, the bell has been rung, and its hard to un-ring a bell... That's the end of commodity inflation... and since that's the only inflation we had... well, there is no inflation.

8 comments:

James m Dakin said...

Seriously? Oil down $10+? Surely not enough people buy into the BS of the third or forth Lin Laden death? I'm totally lost nowadays with economics. Or geopolitics for that matter.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Oil is not the only commodity.

THe inflation argument used commodities as THE leg for its argument... that leg is completely broken.
Oil probably trades between US$ 85 and 110 for the rest of the year...

But Gold and Silver replacing the US$? Not until our political system breaks down. Now, that has a high enough probability of happening when Oil imports are closing in on ZERO; AND nothing else materializes; AND the folks in D.C. don't figure out that they can't spend money forever... but that is 7 to 17 years out. In the mean time, notice that the consumer staples and healthcare stocks did not get jacked with the rest of the market? People will need, and will pay for, band-aids and tooth paste.

PioneerPreppy said...

Nah Greg I am predicting oil goes up again as soon as a new MENA upset triggers it. Perhaps coupled with some perceived retaliation linked to the Osama killing. Wheat will go up and still waiting on corn.

We will see...

Greg T. Jeffers said...

PP:

WHeat and corn prices will be weather driven. If you can tell me what the weather for the big growing areas is going to be... boy will we be rich.

Oil.

Very tough because it IS so politically driven. Please keep in mind that I am not doing this in the abstract. Very, very tough.

Anonymous said...

Now what? Coal Guy called the market at 12,500 pts. 2 1/2 years ago on this site. Spot on. Mad Scientist called silver for what it was, short term and long. Oil has gone up and down, up and down, as has the economy.My concern is the call made here about a year ago on gas rationing in 3-5 years( last year prediction )75% and 100% respectively. Just hope the long term prognosis is correct with a slow decent. This site has been fairly consistant. I also listen to Rush and Ticker Guy regularly, however neither are peak oil type of guys. Makes mean wonder if there long term outlook is not slightly wrong.

peace

PioneerPreppy said...

Actually you can get a good feel for some crops by what the weather is like going into the season. A few more weeks of rain and we can write off corn production in some very big swaths. Why I said I was waiting on corn. Wheat on the other hand will be affected by the Western drought which has already done it's job.

Who knows the corn could bounce back if it warms up rabidly and dries out. There is still enough time.

As for oil I keep going back to that statement the OPEC spokesman made about $100.00 oil. I think they will find a way but of course I am only guessing so no real conviction behind it.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Pioneer:

Oil is my favorite in the commodity patch. Most of the rest look terrible for my money. I expected a pull back in Oil, but nothing like 114 to 98 in a week...

I am unwilling to put my money on the weather... my sense is that the risk is to the downside, but I'll not short Mother Nature! Especially when I think the Aussie $ is like shooting fish in a barrel.

dennis said...

So has the sinking of the QE2 spurred this comodities drop?