Friday, April 8, 2011

Saudi Solar?

Brent Oil traded over $125 today; front month WTI is over $111. I cannot fathom this spread. My bet is it simply won't last. I have read about the supply conundrum at Cushing, Ok. My sense is that the Oil now being piped there that caused this discount will not find its way to the origination point of that pipe system.  When, I can't say, but I will bet dollars to donuts that it happens, it happens soon, and when it happens it will happen (the spread will close) fast. Long WTI/Short Brent sounds like a reasonable bet to me (but this is not investment advice and I already have positions).

------------------------------------------

The KSA is in a hurry to spend some BIG BUCKS, no doubt on well connected Western contractors, on solar, nuclear, wind... but notice the silly conclusion/explanation of the author:
That means Saudi Arabia wants to wean itself off oil but keep the rest of us hooked (unless it has plans to become the world's largest solar-panel exporter, too). 

That's the writer's conclusion?  No wonder the public in the West is so kerbolixed up with this issue.... relying on the media to inform them.

The KSA's agenda ain't keeping us hooked on Oil; that was done long ago, far away, and by another party... their agenda is to matter, politically, to The Powers That Be, and TPTB won't give a good fart about the House of Saud when they are not an Oil exporter... heck, they might not give that good fart once it is common knowledge that Saudi export days are numbered.

The Saud's are between a far bigger rock and a much harder hard place than the U.S. is. Either way - they either skidaddle or wind up hanging on a hook with piano wire for a noose.

-----------------------------------------

I don't know Tracey McMillan, but I love her already.

-------------------------------------------

An excellent article on the merits. Don't miss it. My sense is that as the Oil supply declines, the better nature of man will shine through. Or perhaps I just hope so.

--------------------------------------------

I have more than a passing interest to see how declines in electricity availability in Japan this summer effects productivity and production itself. Before the age of AC for summer cooling, summer was a time of diminished work and production. Japan might well give us a good look at our own future.

More on this soon.



17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jeffers,

Surprise you did not mention the budget impasse. The funny thing is that these bastards are having a hard time cutting like 40 billion on top of the 20 the repubs already got. We are so screwed. I already stuck my ass up in the air to take it like a man :)

People in the past had a hard time working in the summer, with all the obese now forget it. Factories get real hot without fans and A.C.

As for this quote "That means Saudi Arabia wants to wean itself off oil but keep the rest of us hooked (unless it has plans to become the world's largest solar-panel exporter, too)."

I just don't think these idiots understand the concept of peak oil. I feel like I have some mystical esoteric information and most can't understand. Hahahahahh

Donal Lang said...

I was watching a program about how overdue Tokyo is for a Big One. As the stresses release further along the fault system, its only logical that Tokyo will be hit sooner rather than later. If/when that happens, Japan will never recover; there's not enough oil and money available right now to get their debt-ridden economy back to where it was 6 months ago.

Meanwhile, Saudi and the other ME countries are potentially the next boom economies; oil worth a fortune, sunshine for the next solar powered economy and a demographic of 50% under 30's.

Compare that to ageing Europe, USA, China and Japan, with not much oil, temperate climates and having to borrow (from the M.E!) to invest.

Here's a different thing someone just sent me;http://www.youtube.com/embed/LPjzfGChGlE
Very impressive presentation.

Anonymous said...

Donal,

You see that 7.4 they got, I think yesterday? Japan is in big trouble. Debt is massive, nation in shock, infrastructure destroyed and economy faltering. What would a similar event in Cali do to the U.S.?

dextred

tweell said...

Tracy McMillan had some interesting points, but she obviously can't follow her own advice. The problem is that women like to play with thugs/cads. They are exciting, unpredictable, and not marriage material. Bad boys get the babes, nice guys finish last. Since the feminist creed is that they can have it all, any nice guy is married only for his wallet, which gets removed and awarded to the gal by the divorce court a few years later.

Donal Lang said...

Dex, you already know what would happen to San Fran; just like New Orleans, but without the time for the rich folk to run away.

Anonymous said...

It is not just the West Coast that is prime for the big one. The East Coast is past due. It is on a 300 year cycle instead of the West's 100 year cycle. The Midwest is due, too. OY!

It seems to me that TPTB are making great use of emotions, relationships and the unconcious mind already. Seems to me that they are playing the masses like a fiddle. The research referred to in the article is not sponsored out of the goodness of someone's heart. Lord, please save us from the marketers and the social engineers!

Regards,

Coal Guy

Anonymous said...

Here's the deal on alternative power for KSA...

A 1000MW nuclear plant might cost $5Billion. It would replace 12.7Million barrels per year of oil consumption. At $125/barrel, that's $1.6 billion per year. A nuke plant in the KSA pays for itself in just a bit over 3 years. That assumes an oil fired power plant at 40% efficiency is replaced. If you go down the list of alternatives, there isn't much that is more expensive for them than burning their own oil. Same goes for the Egyptians, Iraqis, Iranians, etc. Some of them might have ulterior motives, however.

Regards,

Coal Guy

kathy said...

Gee tweel. Thanks for letting me know what exactly my problem is. If you'd ever like to hear what's wrong with you, just let me know. I'd be happy to oblige.

PioneerPreppy said...

Kathy... Kathy

Haven't we had this discussion before? Please do not take an (accurate) observation of feminist raised female bias quite so personally. The entitlement driven, family court backed beast feminism has become today was a gradual affair that crept into some generations and geographical female populations before others.

Although you have been infiltrated by feminist doctrine I believe you are a fair minded individual with a huge heart and I doubt Tweel was aiming anything at you. I imagine you come from the "can do anything and keep some morals" generation of feminist who still view marriage as more than a paycheck. Not so your younger sisters.

As for SA solar I would rate that in the same area as Iranian nuke plants... they are worried and they have been over estimating their oil supply for years. They have an insider view of the actual crisis coming.

Kathy said...

I learned about peak oil 5 years ago. I immediately started to research because I needed to know how to prepare for the future for my kids. The relationship between energy and economics was very clear. The big problem I had was that I was a teacher who left the classroom to raise children. I was a writer of books and a gardener and many other things but I was definitely not an economist. I was delighted to find this site as it made the economics accessible to a number challenged, middle-aged housewife. Can you imagine what it feels like to come here and have to listen to descriptions of woman that have no relationship to anybody I know. The negative stereotypes don't fit my mother or my sisters or my daughters and they certainly don't define me. If you found a really helpful place but had to read descriptions of men that were insulting and demeaning, would you continue to visit? This isn't about being indoctrinated. It's about speking up for anyone, including myself, who is unfairly characterized. Do some woman fit the description? Sure. Are some men fat and lazy and mean? Yep. Is that you? Probably not and I would never insult you by ranting about the men who are. There. Rant over. I just want to be educated about how money and energy work. Maybe this isn't the place for me to do that.

PioneerPreppy said...

Well Kathy let's see every time someone on here lays out their opinion on the mythical "patriarchy" or perpetuates the fraud of the "bad ol days" they do make the same generalities.

So be it take it as you will....

My opinion is your getting the most honest economic/social discussion here than you will ever get anywhere else.

Kathy said...

As I continue to faithfully read, in spite of feeing like a bald-headed man in a barbershop, you must be right. I do appreciate that you don't mean it personally.

Anonymous said...

Manufacturing solar panels in KSA is actually an excellent ideal. They can afford the infrastructure and use the sun to power the operation. Once set up they can use any excess inventory to expand the operation. With Europe cutting feed in tariffs all the other players are going to take it on the chin. So they could supply themselves for the time being, and then be in a position to dominate once it becomes obvious solar is necessary. The only thing they lack is the skilled labor and the right attitude.

Best,
Dan

Anonymous said...

Kathy,

There are a lot of women attracted to real losers, you ain’t one of them. If you were you wouldn’t have felt a personal insult; but instead would have been offended that someone was telling the truth about your (insert scumbag’s name here.) You’d also probably also know full well that the aforementioned scumbag was incapable of caring about anything or anyone but himself and was going to kick you to the curb as soon as he no longer needed you.

Best,
Dan

kathy said...

My husband was very glad to hear that. We have been watching the news on the budget cazies and needed a good laugh. Thank you. I got a gem. Almost 40 years and going strong. (I was a child bride.)

tweell said...

Kathy, that comment was obviously not with you in mind. Are you a three-time divorcee with a teen-age son in tow? No, that would be Ms. McMillan (and my sister - sigh). As the father of four women (including one who can't keep away from the bad boys no matter what my wife and I said and have done) I know that not all women are like that. The problem is that over half of American women of marriageable age (18-50 or thereabouts) are like that, and the grown children from these broken families have filled our prisons to overflowing while the government grows and grows.
I do not regret my marriage to my beloved wife (four years ago she passed away, and it still hurts). However, I have reluctantly explained to my son that marriage for him is a very dangerous idea, especially since he is a good and honest man. He agrees, seeing some of that fallout, two grandchildren that we help take care of while their father works and their mother - my daughter- isn't in the picture.
As far as misogyny goes, I have only to turn on the TV or pick up a newspaper to get a heaping load of how men are regarded in society.

kathy said...

Tweel. I'm so sorry about your wife and daughter. I can't imagine life without my husband and I share the pain of a kid gone wrong in spite of doing everything right. Life, I fear, will not be kind to many of our young people used to a society that props them up when they refuse to stand alone.

On another note. We have a budget. I'm pleased for many reasons but primarily because my son and his wife are graduating from college out west next week. They are planning to drive home and hit the National Parks along the way before returning home to put those degrees to good use working on the beekeeping business, helping to get in wood for the winter, baking and canning for the farm stand and otherwise making themselves useful while looking for non-exisent jobs. I am so glad that I can at least offer them a free roof over their heads and as much food as they can pack away. Non of these new graduates will be counted on the unemployment rolls but they will certainly be sitting there.