There is a very good reason that our politics are failing us here in the U.S. and the West. Every single one of us (ok, that's an exaggeration) exploits the "sound bite" and ability to speak out of both sides of our mouths even when confronted with powerful facts contradicting our positions.
Allow me to point out some examples:
Peak Oil and Fossil Fuels -vs- Atmospheric Carbon Projections...
Well....... if we have limited Fossil Fuels (Carbon) to burn, then we cannot have unlimited Carbon entering the Atmosphere... now can we? Yet ALL, YES ALL, of the climate change projections assume unlimited supplies of Fossil Fuels to burn - meanwhile EVERY peak oil doom prognosticator (besides me) I can find on the web always seem to mention fossil fuel depletion and climate change as 2 sides of the same coin. There is simply no Universe in which that makes sense.
Peak Oil will happen, so will Peak Coal and Peak Gas... and they will happen LONG before the earth has 1000 ppm of Carbon in the atmosphere. It will happen LONG before the earth has 500 ppm of Carbon in the Atmosphere. We are already at 383 ppm. I am not a climate scientist, and I am not denying climate change is quite possible and probably not a desired outcome (to say the least). What I AM saying is that obfuscating any FACTS or TRUTH does not help the debate - yet that is EXACTLY what I see going on here (probably a good strategy to gain funding or grants).
Economic Growth -vs- Pay-As-You-Go Social Programs (Social Security & Medicare)...
Many on the Left have caught onto the idea that "Future Growth is Not Possible". As properly defined I firmly agree with them (more on that definition in a future post). Well that means the end of any and all government sponsored Ponzi schemes, doesn't it? Meanwhile certain groups decry the U.S. military from enforcing US$ hegemony while scooping money out of the Washington troff with both hands (and feet). You can't get a little bit pregnant.
Economic Solutions to make things "Fair" -vs- Resource Depletion...
There is not a Socialist/Left web site that does not blow out of one side of its mouth that the argument that the world's 6.5 Billion people can all live like American's with our current resource consumption is complete Bull Sh*t (and that is absolutely true)... and then goes on to argue that all of the poor need a middle class existence to be happy or to make life fair. We can't have it both ways. If the physical resources are not there, why do people make that argument? For political gain. If everybody had a personal jet, there would not be a drop of oil left on the planet. Jets are an extreme example. What would happen (don't worry, it CANNOT happen) if every family of 4 on earth lived in a 4000 square foot McMansion and drove a SUV? Same outcome, only worse. There wouldn't be a square meter of ground for growing food - it would all be covered by houses and parking lots.
In 100 years ALL of the world's oil will be gone... nothing we do now will change that outcome - the question is can we and should we use government agents with GUNS to make life more fair? I mean, there will always be a surplus of goose stepping jag offs willing to beat and shoot you at a particular government's behest, no questions asked. History is replete with examples. Is that really what we want?
What I am getting at is this:
Be careful what you ask for, you may just get it.
And...
You can't have it both ways, and it is very, very non-constructive to pretend or argue that we can.
20 comments:
The well-offs (Americans/Canadians/Europeans) are SO wasteful and overindulged, that we could easily drop our standard of living, be almost as happy, and provide the entire world with cars and air conditioners. The entire world is going to demand them anyway. Someday they are going to either get them or take them.
The whole climate change thing is based on bad arguments. I would LOVE for them all to have a reasonable debate INCLUDING the historical/cycle, sunspot and solar flare people. I think man-made global warming is non-existent (and crap); partly because the climate change advovates are so VIOLENT in their slamming down anyone who disagrees with them. Isn't trillions of dollars in future costs worth debating?
I'm an investor. I'm an optimist. It is theoretically possible to rearrange our living worldwide to better fit the remaining resources on this planet. You don't need a damn cruise to the Bahamas every year. And maybe, just maybe, the Chevy Volt will be as impressive as hoped for. :)
For your information today:
From www.ktar.com:
by "KTAR Newsroom (February 24th, 2010 @ 1:27pm) PHOENIX - Hundreds of Phoenix firefighters have voted unanimously to take a 2 percent pay cut and four furlough days over the next two years to save jobs.
The head of the United Phoenix Firefighters Association Pete Gorraiz (guh-'RYE-us) says the pay cuts will save three engine companies and 42 jobs.
Gorraiz says the Phoenix Fire Department will lose 40 jobs but those will be offset by retirements that will happen by June, meaning that no firefighters will have to face layoffs.
Phoenix Fire Chief Bob Khan tells KTAR Radio in Phoenix that firefighters like what they do, believe in what they do and want to protect the community and save jobs for fellow firefighters."
The final city budget hasn't been set but it will be in early March. No matter what they do the city council's action seem to enrage somebody, lots of somebodies. the public hasn't come to realize yet that less and less is what's ahead of us for a few years.
Peace , shamba
Bur,
You are looking at a standard of living below that of the "poor" of this country. Many people's a$$ ends would get a bit chaffed were some socialist !@$#*%d were to try to impose that on us. Maybe even you.
As best I can tell from what I've read, your fair share is about 150 sq ft of living space, no car, and a lot of rice and beans or cabbage and potatoes, depending on the latitude you live at.
You are an engineer. Do the research. Do the math. Read up on the sustainability folks and what they expect and propose. And PLEASE, there is no reason for you to continue your wasteful ways. You can live the ascetic life today and bank 90% of your take home at the same time. GO FIRST! Let us know how it's working for you.
Also, please be aware that even after we have been pushed into poverty, our Blessed Socialist Masters will still be flitting around the globe in jet aircraft, living large, and slapping each other on the back, and congratulating each other on being such Men of the People and all around Great Guys.
Regards,
Coal Guy
Coal Guy:
Have you walked thru your local WalMart on a Friday night recently? A lot of Americans are already living your 'socialist dream' without the benefits.
Most peak oil websites I look at mention Cuba (booga,booga socialist nightmare) or Russian after the crony capitalists took over as examples for decline.
Well poor little Cuba manages to provide health care for everyone and still be able to export doctors and still be waaay ahead of the Shining City on the Hill in health care.
Most of the US energy use is waste in an absurd transportation system, an imperial military with it's 1000 foreign stations and inefficient tech around the house.
Mr. Free Market and the Invisible Hand don't know how to make the
necessary changes and the corporate boyz certainly don't.
And don't get all hysterical about coffin sized dirt floor huts for everyone.
A cheap,sane,reasonable public transportation system, downsize the military and upgrade housing should work for a start.
Please, quit reciting the BS from the left, and do the math. But, you are the same guy that believes a 12 oz bag of potato chips is a better buy than a 5lb sack of potatoes at the same price. Done wasting my time.
Regards,
Coal Guy
I want it only one way, an end to our fiat currency...
http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=259
From the link above...
When President James A. Garfield, an opponent of central banking, was inaugurated in 1881, he said “Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce”. On July 2, 1881 Garfield was shot, he died on September 19.
"Give me control of a nation's money
and I care not who makes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild
From the lawmaker to the banker... the truth.
Happy Tax Season People!
Hey Anonymous who responded to Coal Guy, if Cuba is so great go live there. I'm so sick of you pukes spouting off crap about how great other countries are. Please feel free to leave. In fact, I will pay the airfare. And when you get to Cuba and have a problem with your 57 Chevy or aren't thrilled with your free health care, talk to one of the Castro brothers. I hear they are real nice guys who love to listen to the needs of their people and take care of them. I've grown partial to my freedom but if you're tired of yours, please go. Really, just go.
I was sick of arrogant Americans so I departed for Asia years ago. The feds are real nice guys who love to listen to the needs of their people and take care of them. Those people do not include most American citizens.
Hehe, I don't completely live an austere life (I eat too many bad things for one thing), but I have committed to "reducing my footprint" at least somewhat for now. I have a 100 year old house, and an 18 year old car. In winter, temp is set at 63 around here. All the furniture is used. I don't do repairs/replacements on the building unless they are really needed (roof, windows, bathrooms -- yet I'm leaving the plaster walls and old electric for now). No real vacations, no new clothes, walk-able/train-able Chicago, etc. Turn off the lights. I think it can make an impact -- naive little me. :)
Cuba can be complemented for only one thing --- that they've lasted as long as they have. That took moxie (and repair capabilities). But no one wants the government to run everything. We're not always good at it. ;) Competition is the way to go. Always has been, and the government steps in to regulate and where it makes sense. I'm not suggesting we greater socialize everything. I'm saying that before we have "my ideas" shoved down our throats and we are priced out of the oil economy, we can be pre-emptive.
Cuba has no need of heating! Plenty of rain! Seafood in abundance! Plenty of land vs population!
I don't know where this "look Cuba" BS started, but it is BS. And its from a bunch of jag offs that have never been there, or Venezuela, or Columbia or the rest of the third world central and south america. I have. Extensively. Anon @ 1:40 - you don't know what you are talking about.
Cuba is great. That's why they all want to come here.
The Disappearance of the Natural Gas Glut
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2010/0224.html
Carbon emissions from human activities are nearly irrelevent to greenhouse gas buildup. One good sized volcanic eruption can put more CO2 into the atmosphere in a few minutes, than all of human activities since we migrated from the African savannas. Until recently, forests could quickly absorb and balance CO2 levels. It would only take about 10% to 15% of the forests we have cleared to absorb all of the CO2 from our activies--but that would not be enough to prevent buildup. Without those forests, the buildup will happen just from natural oxidation of organic material, volcanic eruptions, and animals breathing--regardless of fossil fuel emissions. It's all about deforestation, NOT fossil fuel emissions.
"Peak Oil and Fossil Fuels -vs- Atmospheric Carbon Projections..."
Bingo on this one! I love Kunstler and Astyk, but I am baffled at how worried they are about "climate change". Peak Oil will take care of that problem (if it really even is one) naturally.
Good blog, but there's so much bullshit in these comments I don't know where to start! How about this;
So climate change isn't happening? The UK has just had 51 days of continuous rain; a record. France had 50 killed in a Force 12 storm; a record. 7 of the hottest days on record in the last 10 years. Etc, etc... Whilst the IPCC has had some justifiable criticism lately, your personal beliefs do not negate the facts, however much you may want to ignore them. CO2 levels are higher now than before humans were on the Earth - you think that's unimportant? Or irrelevant?? You really think we can burn up 150 years of solid carbon fossil fuels and NOT put CO2 into the atmosphere??? I heard American education wasn't so great but.....!
I've mentioned Cuba before, not as a paradise, just that how is it that their healthcare system is SO much better than yours in terms of outcomes for a fraction of the price? Cuba has a higher life expectancy too (dropping in the USA). Can't afford it, huh? Maybe too many fatcats in the trough.
I work with a UK architect and we are designing zero carbon homes now (UK Code 6) which work out about 20% more to build than 'old' designs. They are generally about 1200 to 2,000 sq ft and as our energy bills are rising very fast, will save money/pay for themselves over about 15 years for the extra cost. Efficiency isn't poverty, American profligate energy use isn't luxury; many Europeans have higher standards of living than Americans on 1/3 the energy! Grow up!
Who was it that said,
"Be a pessimist with your head and an optimist with your heart". First bit is easy, last part is hard to do with some of these comments.
Please note, those with thinking ability, that the sustainability folks seem to have done a good job at determining that everyone's "fair share" of the Earth's resources is about the productive capacity of two hectares of land. That's just under 5 acres. They estimate that Ugly Americans and those Evil Aussies and Canadians consume at about 5 times this rate. Western Europeans consume about 3.3X.
Now consider what you have to give up to get to 1.0X. For Americans, Australians and Canadians this means cutting about 80% of consumption. For Western Europeans it is about 70%. Further, not much of that decrease coming out of food. It is impossible to cut your caloric intake by 70% or 80%. To maintain body weight, caloric intake must remain with in a few percent of what it is now. Only the composition of what is eaten can be changed. Mostly, meat consumption is reduced and staple grains and beans are increased.
So, given that food intake remains constant, practically all of that 70% or 80% reduction in consumption must come from everything else. That means that well over 80% of housing, transportation, furniture, clothing, sundries, heat, electricity, hot water, etc., must go. Also, 80% the industry that produces these things will go with it. It cannot be accomplished by giving up that Mocha-Latte and taking the bus. That is not even a scratch on the surface. By any Western standard sustainable living is extreme poverty.
Regards,
Coal Guy
Donal,
These comments about the Cuban health care system are just a reiteration of the law of diminishing returns. The first 10 cents of the US health care dollar buy a lot more health care than the last 10 cents. The Cubans get just the first few, most efficient, percent of possible health care. Of course Cuban health care is more efficient. Health care in the rest of the world could be made just as efficient by denying treatment beyond anything that doesn't get treated in Cuba. Is that reasonable to do?
Regards,
Coal Guy
CG; the point is, 50% of your healthcare is going to old terminally ill people who die within 3 years, and yet 40 million people (most of which are working, making the stuff that keeps your economy going)can't afford the insurance to get then that first 10 cents worth!
And medical bills are the biggest cause of personal bankruptcy!
I'd have thought your nation's self interest would make it obvious that you need these people to be healthy, if only so they can work!
20,000,000 are illegal aliens, who should go home. I feel for the working poor. They have always taken it in the neck because they are too proud to take the easy way out. They could better off by working the system than by actually working. I do think that Greg is right, though, within the next 10 years this will become a moot point.
Regards,
Coal Guy
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