Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Inflation/Deflation and market price mechanisms
I have been in the deflation camp now for over a year... my timing certainly could have been better.
I have been pulling the ethanol/corn/soy bean thing apart now for a couple of weeks... and in spite of the U.S. consuming 42.5% of its corn crop for ethanol, the price of corn is falling hard - and that's with fairly high oil prices. Should Oil prices fall, you could see corn under $3/bushel.
At first blush this might not make sense - but that is what is happening. Gold and silver have come in. Oil prices have declined. Ag prices are down. Equities have fallen. Small businesses cannot get loans.
This is what deflation would look like to me...
If this kept up you could have commodity prices fall and actually become MORE unaffordable for John Q. Public.
What a f*&^%ed up set of data... I am thinking of opening a surf/ice cream shop or applying for a job at the Anti-Christ... anything has to be easier than this.
Posted by The Short Story Man at 2:33 PM