"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unkowns. That is to say, there are things we know we don't know. But, there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we don't know we don't know." - Donald Rumsfeld discusing the War in Iraq (but it could easily have been the scientific community discussing world oil production)

This Blog focuses on energy, and how the inevitable decline in oil production will affect the financial markets, food supplies, and politics. These subjects require their participants to look forward decades, not months.

There will likely be no sudden confirmation of Peak Oil or its impacts (unless politics screws things up). If you are looking for this to be definitively declared in some reliable venue you will likely be disappointed. I continue to point to data from the EIA that appears to support the "Peak is here/near" camp, and the probability is increasing with data from each pasing month supporting this position. Still, this data, by no means, indicates a certainty - but a high enough probability in the near term for people interested in the above fields to hedge their bets accordingly. No more, no less. This story continues to evolve, and one must react to the data, not read into the data that which is not there.

March 2007 data is due out shortly and I will report back forthwith.

Yours for a better world,


Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com