I am interrupting my series for Memorial Day.
I want to speak for someone who cannot speak. Someone I barely remember, because he died when I was 11 years old. His name was Ronny Manca, and he was killed in Vietnam on February 25, 1972.
Ronny was close friends with 2 of my older brothers. He and his family went to the same church our family did, and attended the same very small parochial school my siblings and I attended. My brothers had been friends with him since he was 5 years old; they met in kindergarten. My father was friendly with his dad, who owned the local auto parts store. Unfortunately, what I remember of Ronny most was the news of his death. I came home from school, and brother number 3 was in the kitchen with my mother and they were both crying. He had just given our mother the news.
Ronny did not wish to go to Viet Nam. He did not wish to fight or serve in the military. He was drafted. From what I understand, he considered going to Canada. His father was a WWII vet, and perhaps his family convinced him to "do his time". Ronny lasted some 75 days or so in Vietnam. Not a lot of time.
When I hear people talk about those that "made the ultimate sacrifice" or "laid down their life for their country" I can't help but think of Ronny. Ronny wanted to ride motorcycles, make out with his girl friend down at the Hudson river swimming spot my brothers and I used to frequent, and drink beer. He was a young man in the full bloom of youth. At least these are my limited recollections... I don't think he was in any way interested in making the ultimate sacrifice and laying down his life in a rice paddy on the other side of the world after being shot by farmer/soldiers infuriated that he was walking armed in their backyard. If it weren't for the asinine policy of ego-maniac politicians, Ronny would be in his 60's now, his children in their 30's, and his grandchildren in grade school. But it was not to be. They made the ultimate sacrifice, too.
I get ill when I see the Memorial Day hoopla. The silly exclamations that I read on the Web about thanking the "men and women that gave their lives"... which really should read "were individuals killed while serving in hostilities to protect the elite's economic interests". Always it is in the abstract - BULLSH#!. Getting killed is never abstract - it is very personal. I never see someone say "I thank Ronny Manca for making the ultimate sacrifice". I get ill because it is all "survivor bias" (I think the saying "to the victors go the spoils" needs revision... perhaps it should read "to the survivors go the spoils"). The dead are not here to defend themselves, only the survivors. The dead are not here to tell you their side of the story. My bet is that if they could they would be furious at the people that took everything from them, and furious at the people that were only too willing to benefit from the actions and circumstances that took their lives. That led them to die a violent death in pain and agony far from the comfort of their homes and families. They didn't want to make the ultimate sacrifice! They wanted money for college, or to get away from poverty, or a pay check, or to see the world. I don't think being killed ever entered the equation.
As I remember it, after Ronny was killed, his family ceased celebrating many of the holidays and occasions that Americans and Christians mark throughout the year. I don't know that this went on for the rest of their lives. I hope that they had found some level of peace. I had heard that Ronny's father passed away a couple of years ago.
Ronny Manca wanted to live the life that was given to him. My bet is that the very young men serving in combat zones as I write this want to live the life that was given to them, too.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Feminists vs the Cheaters - cont.
In any political battle, it helps to have a boogey man, the way despotic regimes in the MENA have Israel (NAZI Germany disposed of any need for truth instead depending on propaganda to recreate "truth"). From there its a simple play book. Everything is the boogey man's fault. Everything. Whatever slight you feel, any shortcoming you have, any error in judgment on your part... all of it was caused by the "boogey man".
(In America we have entitlement AND military spending that is killing us... but the Left believes its the military and the Right believes its all caused by entitlement spending. Like I said, each side only needs a little bit of truth to mix in with their serving of Horse Sh#!.)
In building your boogey man, you only need (barely) enough facts. Most of it is lies, and you mix in enough truth to convince those that want to believe. This is not to say that women's suffrage or the civil right's movement did not have very, very legitimate grievances. They certainly did. What I am suggesting is that all SIG's outlive their originally stated purpose, often becoming the very pariah they so lugubriously decried.
The boogey man the Feminist/Left has created are crazed, if slightly daft and simple religious fanatics. Oh, there are a small cadre of loonies in that camp... but there is no data that I am aware of that supports the contention of a significant population within the electorate aligning with this faction. In fact, the F/L tends to lump anyone that does not support abortion as opposing "reproductive rights", and therefore a religious lunatic.
WTF??!! Men can spend decades in prison for groping a woman, married men can be convicted of a crime and sent to prison for forcing their wives to engage in sex. Access to birth control is near universal. What right to not reproduce is it that the "boogey man" is imposing on anyone? Not a one. When someone buys a car, they accept that they have increased the probabilities of dying in a car accident than if they did not own a car. When people have heterosexual sexual intercourse they are accepting the increased probability of becoming pregnant... that pretty much describes how the "boogey man" see's this. And since that is certainly somewhat reasonable, the F/L needs to infuse something more dastardly into the collective personality of the "boogey man". "They hunt. They love guns. They kill and eat animals. They believe in G-d." Oh, my! How awful. Of course the F/L are superior.... after all they only kill babies.
Inconsistancies do not help the "boogey man". But while there are simply too man people that support killing for economic interests (war) and capital punishment and police killings over drugs, there are millions of folks that (like me) reject all of that, and empire too. MILLIONS. Call us Libertarians or Constitutionalists (I suppose there is a difference, but I think that is really splitting hairs)... I prefer to label this group "thinking people"... the point is that not every pro-Life American is a nose picking war monger salivating to see a public hanging.
Take this Red and Blue state donkey dust you hear tell about. That may work when describing presidential elections, but the fact is that most states are purple, with only a minority of the county level starkly Red or Blue. The U.S. is purple, and world various shades of grey... but not for the Borderline Personalities dominating the "women's movement", a movement dominated by the progeny of the elite.
Let us look at some of the outcomes of said "movement".
Nearly 1/3 of female college graduates will not have children, with 20% of the general population leaving their childbearing years childless. I know this turns on the Zero Population Growth folks, but only because they have not given it much thought.
Highly educated women not breeding means that most (do the math... its the number of children born, not a binary code of "yes" or "no" to parenthood) of the next generation of Americans will be raised in a home absent an ethos of education. Further, education was supposed to increase well being and financial security... but with the exception of those with technical and professional advance degrees (physicians, dentists, lawyers, engineers) this hasn't exactly panned out.
It means MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of elderly women without families to interact with and care for them in their old age. It means millions and millions of immature middle aged adults, too... nothing matures you like having to be the being the adult... No matter how many articles like this are planted in the media to encourage people to join in the childless existence... this is not an acceptable path. What is the writer suggesting? That this is really a viable society-wide aspiration? Or is the writer merely recruiting and providing support for her constituency?
Special Interest Groups ("SIG's") do not wind down and go out of business once their stated founding intentions are accomplished. Nope, their goals continue to morph because the monster has to be fed... and all SIG's are monsters...
More soon....
(In America we have entitlement AND military spending that is killing us... but the Left believes its the military and the Right believes its all caused by entitlement spending. Like I said, each side only needs a little bit of truth to mix in with their serving of Horse Sh#!.)
In building your boogey man, you only need (barely) enough facts. Most of it is lies, and you mix in enough truth to convince those that want to believe. This is not to say that women's suffrage or the civil right's movement did not have very, very legitimate grievances. They certainly did. What I am suggesting is that all SIG's outlive their originally stated purpose, often becoming the very pariah they so lugubriously decried.
The boogey man the Feminist/Left has created are crazed, if slightly daft and simple religious fanatics. Oh, there are a small cadre of loonies in that camp... but there is no data that I am aware of that supports the contention of a significant population within the electorate aligning with this faction. In fact, the F/L tends to lump anyone that does not support abortion as opposing "reproductive rights", and therefore a religious lunatic.
WTF??!! Men can spend decades in prison for groping a woman, married men can be convicted of a crime and sent to prison for forcing their wives to engage in sex. Access to birth control is near universal. What right to not reproduce is it that the "boogey man" is imposing on anyone? Not a one. When someone buys a car, they accept that they have increased the probabilities of dying in a car accident than if they did not own a car. When people have heterosexual sexual intercourse they are accepting the increased probability of becoming pregnant... that pretty much describes how the "boogey man" see's this. And since that is certainly somewhat reasonable, the F/L needs to infuse something more dastardly into the collective personality of the "boogey man". "They hunt. They love guns. They kill and eat animals. They believe in G-d." Oh, my! How awful. Of course the F/L are superior.... after all they only kill babies.
Inconsistancies do not help the "boogey man". But while there are simply too man people that support killing for economic interests (war) and capital punishment and police killings over drugs, there are millions of folks that (like me) reject all of that, and empire too. MILLIONS. Call us Libertarians or Constitutionalists (I suppose there is a difference, but I think that is really splitting hairs)... I prefer to label this group "thinking people"... the point is that not every pro-Life American is a nose picking war monger salivating to see a public hanging.
Take this Red and Blue state donkey dust you hear tell about. That may work when describing presidential elections, but the fact is that most states are purple, with only a minority of the county level starkly Red or Blue. The U.S. is purple, and world various shades of grey... but not for the Borderline Personalities dominating the "women's movement", a movement dominated by the progeny of the elite.
Let us look at some of the outcomes of said "movement".
Nearly 1/3 of female college graduates will not have children, with 20% of the general population leaving their childbearing years childless. I know this turns on the Zero Population Growth folks, but only because they have not given it much thought.
Highly educated women not breeding means that most (do the math... its the number of children born, not a binary code of "yes" or "no" to parenthood) of the next generation of Americans will be raised in a home absent an ethos of education. Further, education was supposed to increase well being and financial security... but with the exception of those with technical and professional advance degrees (physicians, dentists, lawyers, engineers) this hasn't exactly panned out.
It means MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of elderly women without families to interact with and care for them in their old age. It means millions and millions of immature middle aged adults, too... nothing matures you like having to be the being the adult... No matter how many articles like this are planted in the media to encourage people to join in the childless existence... this is not an acceptable path. What is the writer suggesting? That this is really a viable society-wide aspiration? Or is the writer merely recruiting and providing support for her constituency?
Special Interest Groups ("SIG's") do not wind down and go out of business once their stated founding intentions are accomplished. Nope, their goals continue to morph because the monster has to be fed... and all SIG's are monsters...
More soon....
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Feminists and Cheaters - cont.
Continued from previous post...
As I said in my last post... if you place men and women in proximity of each other under ANY CONDITIONS - battlefield, college, corporate office, boardroom, restaurant/bar, hayloft - many, many, many of these individuals will engage in sexual congress.
"It takes 2 to Tango", or so goes the saying... so how did it always get to be the man's fault? Biology, and brilliant marketing on the part of Leftist/Feminist movement. BRILLIANT. We all know the biology, I'll spare you the discussion... suffice it to say that men and women use each other to advance their interests/agenda in line with what natural law intended - men are attracted to young women (those that were attracted to post-menopausal women over the eons did not pass on their genes), women are attracted to the things they deem desirable.... we all know that this just is what it is. The Left/Feminists have assiduously (or with blind luck) cultivated a system of discrediting those they view as impeding their agenda.
I have written before of the Liberal/Feminist birth/dearth baby bust. Leftist/Feminists do not breed more feminists; from my observation, a higher percentage are gay than is represented in the general population, and they are invariably college educated, which results in decreased fertility (see link below for the effect that has on baby production), ergo they must recruit Leftist/Feminists... and they do so at the top colleges and universities.
Now stay with me, this is going to get tricky... The Liberal/Feminist agenda has dominated college campuses, politics, and corporations for the past 30 years. Our largest corporations almost exclusively recruit from the 50 most competitive colleges and universities. It is FAR EASIER to fill a slot at a corporation or government agency than founding and growing a successful business! While the vast majority of millionaires in America are family men that started rather unglamorous businesses with the help, support, and cooperation of the wives (look, I am not religious and do not support marriage/family life for religious reasons... I don't have to, the data overwhelmingly supports the idea that people live longer, happier, more satisfying lives as members of a family), it is the corporations that wield the power. I assert that corporations are NOT RUN by their managers and executives; I assert that the corporation RUNS the managers and the executives. VERY little talent is required for the vast majority of these folks. One "Steve Jobs" can keep a great many execs and managers busy. The other area that requires very little talent but yields enormous power is the Law. And Finance. Medicine requires somewhat more brains and talent than the previous 2, it seems... though we don't seem to be getting much.
(Here's a fun fact to know... in 1980 only 10% of American women exited their childbearing years childless. Today, that number is 20%. For those with a bachelor's degree the percentage rises to roughly 1/3. I have seen no scientific data covering women with graduate degrees, but my personal observation tells me that the number likely approaches (or exceeds) 50%, with the vast majority of those with children having an only child. I will wind this data point into where I am going with this series. Bear with me... but on a side note - if you want grandchildren, best to pay close attention!)
The Feminists have figured this out! We don't hear Feminists clamoring for more women to start small businesses and become self-made millionaires... the easiest path to power is within the corporation... since nearly ANY nitwit can run a near monopoly (how hard is it to manage Coke's franchise? Really? How about Clorox? Let me take some of those Coke execs and put them in a local printing, pest control, or contracting business... we'll see how f***ing smart they are...) the Feminists (quite correctly and brilliantly) promote those positions for women in order to gain power.
OK, so you are in a blood match for a political position for which there is no empirical way to judge who is better than whom... what better way to demolish the competition than by creating sexual traps that will ruin the them? Because of the vagaries of natural law, a great many more middle aged male execs get caught in the honey trap than middle aged women (per capita; I recognize that there are more male executives.... but this roughly reflects the numbers of math, science, and engineering grads) execs... and, presto! Leverage.
(And contrary to what you might think.... I have nothing but respect (the kind of respect one pays to an enemy in the midst of war) for people that play chess this well!)
For every man out there sexually waltzing around there is a woman dancing just as fast but backwards and in high heels. The Leftist/Feminist agenda made this a crime on the man's part... and a victim out of the woman! Mankind has been shagging each other since the dawn of time... but now it is been made into a political opportunity.
If the Feminist agenda was only to bring equality to women, wouldn't they concentrate on the area that creates the most wealthy people (starting small businesses)? This ain't about equality. Its about power.
If the Feminist agenda was only to bring equality to women, wouldn't they concentrate on the area that creates the most wealthy people (starting small businesses)? This ain't about equality. Its about power.
Gotta hop... more soon.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
The Feminists vs the Cheaters
This series of posts is going to examine the hyper-politically incorrect reality of sex between American men and women. Don’t read it if that bothers you, or if you only are interested in energy and the markets. I am going to pull no punches nor sugar coat anything. Rational co-examination of the facts and opinions are welcome. Any ad hominem attacks will be deleted.
---------------------------
Arnold had a "love" child, as did presidential candidate John Edwards. Governor Spitzer of New York probably (hopefully) wore a condom with his lover.
Notice the rage within the feminist community at Edwards and Schwarzenegger that seems to be lacking when directed at other politicians who had affairs?
Know why that is?
Because these men and their lovers did not abort their un-born children.
That’s it. Nothing more to it than that (well, other than that elitist feminists feel that the mothers of these children are beneath them). See, the feminists will look the other way if a pro-abortion pol has an affair... Ted Kennedy, Bill Clinton et al.... but don't let that baby be born!
Think I am out of my mind? Only because you have not pondered this issue. Follow my reasoning. When people have sex, pregnancy often results. There have been unlimited numbers of famous and powerful politicians having affairs with nubile young women.
And these are the only 2 pregnancies? Out of thousands of affairs?
Bullshit. There were LOTS of pregnancies. Rather than face up to the responsibilities of the result of their affairs, the other guys were complicit in the murder of their own children.
And what is our response? The U.S. is going to indict John Edwards (and for all I know he violated federal campaign laws).
No one has come to Governor Schwarzenegger’s rescue. Governor Spitizer had Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz come to his aid, with Dershowitz telling American’s to “grow up”. Liberals give other liberals cover, especially if they "do the right thing" and abort the baby!
Allow me to tell you my vision of the truth: If men and women are in close proximity for any length of time they will have sex. The feminists will tell you that this is about powerful men and their subordinates… someone should remind them that correlation does not imply causation. There is no “blame”, dear feminists. Nature, G-d, the Universe… however you prefer to define this has a simple set of rules. These are the rules:
If men and women are brought together, they will have sex. It does not matter who is in charge.
If men and women have sex, it will absolutely, positively result in pregnancies.
The vast majority of pregnancies of the rich and powerful and famous have been terminated. Why? Because of the fear these men have of their wives and divorce, and the female electorate. A fear so powerful, these men are willing to be complicit in the murder of their own unborn child.
One of the unintended consequences of technology is that babies that would have been born because paternity identification was not perfectly certain are now being aborted. How screwy is that?
On the subject of “destroying a family”… how is a man having sex outside of a marriage worse than a woman filing for divorce because of “irreconcilable differences” when there are children involved? Is a lover more damaging to a family than a divorce lawyer? Is a lover more of a betrayal than a divorce lawyer? I am not terribly religious... but it seems to me that sex is a venal sin while abortion is somewhat more serious...
Sometimes I think I am the only normal person left.
More on this soon...
---------------------------
Arnold had a "love" child, as did presidential candidate John Edwards. Governor Spitzer of New York probably (hopefully) wore a condom with his lover.
Notice the rage within the feminist community at Edwards and Schwarzenegger that seems to be lacking when directed at other politicians who had affairs?
Know why that is?
Because these men and their lovers did not abort their un-born children.
That’s it. Nothing more to it than that (well, other than that elitist feminists feel that the mothers of these children are beneath them). See, the feminists will look the other way if a pro-abortion pol has an affair... Ted Kennedy, Bill Clinton et al.... but don't let that baby be born!
Think I am out of my mind? Only because you have not pondered this issue. Follow my reasoning. When people have sex, pregnancy often results. There have been unlimited numbers of famous and powerful politicians having affairs with nubile young women.
And these are the only 2 pregnancies? Out of thousands of affairs?
Bullshit. There were LOTS of pregnancies. Rather than face up to the responsibilities of the result of their affairs, the other guys were complicit in the murder of their own children.
And what is our response? The U.S. is going to indict John Edwards (and for all I know he violated federal campaign laws).
No one has come to Governor Schwarzenegger’s rescue. Governor Spitizer had Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz come to his aid, with Dershowitz telling American’s to “grow up”. Liberals give other liberals cover, especially if they "do the right thing" and abort the baby!
Allow me to tell you my vision of the truth: If men and women are in close proximity for any length of time they will have sex. The feminists will tell you that this is about powerful men and their subordinates… someone should remind them that correlation does not imply causation. There is no “blame”, dear feminists. Nature, G-d, the Universe… however you prefer to define this has a simple set of rules. These are the rules:
If men and women are brought together, they will have sex. It does not matter who is in charge.
If men and women have sex, it will absolutely, positively result in pregnancies.
The vast majority of pregnancies of the rich and powerful and famous have been terminated. Why? Because of the fear these men have of their wives and divorce, and the female electorate. A fear so powerful, these men are willing to be complicit in the murder of their own unborn child.
One of the unintended consequences of technology is that babies that would have been born because paternity identification was not perfectly certain are now being aborted. How screwy is that?
On the subject of “destroying a family”… how is a man having sex outside of a marriage worse than a woman filing for divorce because of “irreconcilable differences” when there are children involved? Is a lover more damaging to a family than a divorce lawyer? Is a lover more of a betrayal than a divorce lawyer? I am not terribly religious... but it seems to me that sex is a venal sin while abortion is somewhat more serious...
Sometimes I think I am the only normal person left.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Israel is the ONLY democracy in the M.E.
Israel is the ONLY democracy in the Middle East, and the only country in that region in which I would enjoy living.
Whatever kudos I handed President Obama from his decision making in the OBL/UBL strike have faded in my memory. I am once again disappointed by Mr. MTVPresident.
Israel has been a tremendous friend to the U.S. The U.S. needs Israel, and Israel needs to know that we stand with her. Peace must be made, and that cannot happen until Israel's enemies, and they are legion, acknowledge Israel's right to exist.
The people of Israel deserve the support of the West. It was the West that failed these people in their time of peril and it is the West that must endorse AND SUPPORT the legitimate right of the Jewish state to exist in peace. I would ask liberal Jews here in the U.S. to step up and press this administration to do the right thing... he's your guy and these are your people. To my conservative, libertarian and orthodox friends - Now is the time to let the administration and your members of Congress/Senate know that we are watching and that we support the Israeli people.
Whatever kudos I handed President Obama from his decision making in the OBL/UBL strike have faded in my memory. I am once again disappointed by Mr. MTVPresident.
Israel has been a tremendous friend to the U.S. The U.S. needs Israel, and Israel needs to know that we stand with her. Peace must be made, and that cannot happen until Israel's enemies, and they are legion, acknowledge Israel's right to exist.
The people of Israel deserve the support of the West. It was the West that failed these people in their time of peril and it is the West that must endorse AND SUPPORT the legitimate right of the Jewish state to exist in peace. I would ask liberal Jews here in the U.S. to step up and press this administration to do the right thing... he's your guy and these are your people. To my conservative, libertarian and orthodox friends - Now is the time to let the administration and your members of Congress/Senate know that we are watching and that we support the Israeli people.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
A Wider View - Part 3
Where was I?
Oh yes, how most folks have gotten the Oil supply and pricing story wrong - so far.
See, "no battle plan survives contact with the enemy". In this case, I think a great many folks are going to pull their horns in right when they are going to be very, very right.
I am not terribly bullish on Oil prices in the near term, primarily because I foresee one final deflationary disaster that will create the greatest buying opportunity since Noah built hisself a boat... UNLESS something bad happens within the boundaries of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Look, the U.S Federal Reserve forced a great deal of money into risk assets, and when the Fed begins its exit it is going to have the opposite effect, not to mention all of the emerging markets whose central banks have been printing like mad will have to stop printing and tighten liquidity, too. If this proves correct, then the deflationary wave will be dumbfounding/tidal in its magnitude. While the Fed has made me look dopey in the near term, I am going to bet big on my vision of the outcome. I know a great many people - the "shorts" and the "doomers" among them - that absolutely HATE Bernake & Co. Not me. I underestimated the capacity of the Fed, and missed a big opportunity. Oh, well. I didn't lose, I just didn't capture the opportunity. You gotta be able to forgive yourself and move on to the next trade. I remember a smart, older trader from my time at Laidlaw; he would say "don't get stuck in a rut on your thinking... keep thinking - and trade."
Too many people in the "Peak Oil discussion" universe get stuck on the price of Oil. Don't. If my deflationary wave comes to pass, it will wash Oil out with everything else - and that includes precious metals, grains (weather permitting), equities, maybe even bonds (got noodle that some more). We are getting a hint of things to come from housing and wages, neither of which are responding positively to the Fed's inflationary call to buy risk assets. These aren't canary's in a coal mine; these are freaking Ostrich's.
I have been hanging onto to my view of that one last deflationary wave, and missed the trade on QE2. I forgive myself. Now what? Now the Fed does not have the political cover to do QE3, and by the time they do, the wave will be overwhelming (my friend, the Mad Scientist, thinks QE3 is in the cards. Maybe. Even probably. But not until the water is coming over the bow, me thinks).
So what's this have to do with Oil supplies, politics, Matt Simmons, and Dan Yergin?
Simple. The emerging markets are going to continue to compete with the U.S. and the West for a declining volume of exported oil even as the deflationary wave (brought about by the withdrawal of liquidity in the same developing nations that are competing for said Oil) makes the production of marginal, unconventional oil very, very unprofitable. This, and I reserve the right to change my mind on a dime, will create the entry point for Oil that most of us missed in 2009. Actually, the entry point for equities, real estate, and other commodities, too.
BTW... I was kidding when I said "Simple". Also, shorting is for pros and big boys. Don't try it at home unless you know what you are doing and what risks you are taking.
Oh yes, how most folks have gotten the Oil supply and pricing story wrong - so far.
See, "no battle plan survives contact with the enemy". In this case, I think a great many folks are going to pull their horns in right when they are going to be very, very right.
I am not terribly bullish on Oil prices in the near term, primarily because I foresee one final deflationary disaster that will create the greatest buying opportunity since Noah built hisself a boat... UNLESS something bad happens within the boundaries of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Look, the U.S Federal Reserve forced a great deal of money into risk assets, and when the Fed begins its exit it is going to have the opposite effect, not to mention all of the emerging markets whose central banks have been printing like mad will have to stop printing and tighten liquidity, too. If this proves correct, then the deflationary wave will be dumbfounding/tidal in its magnitude. While the Fed has made me look dopey in the near term, I am going to bet big on my vision of the outcome. I know a great many people - the "shorts" and the "doomers" among them - that absolutely HATE Bernake & Co. Not me. I underestimated the capacity of the Fed, and missed a big opportunity. Oh, well. I didn't lose, I just didn't capture the opportunity. You gotta be able to forgive yourself and move on to the next trade. I remember a smart, older trader from my time at Laidlaw; he would say "don't get stuck in a rut on your thinking... keep thinking - and trade."
Too many people in the "Peak Oil discussion" universe get stuck on the price of Oil. Don't. If my deflationary wave comes to pass, it will wash Oil out with everything else - and that includes precious metals, grains (weather permitting), equities, maybe even bonds (got noodle that some more). We are getting a hint of things to come from housing and wages, neither of which are responding positively to the Fed's inflationary call to buy risk assets. These aren't canary's in a coal mine; these are freaking Ostrich's.
I have been hanging onto to my view of that one last deflationary wave, and missed the trade on QE2. I forgive myself. Now what? Now the Fed does not have the political cover to do QE3, and by the time they do, the wave will be overwhelming (my friend, the Mad Scientist, thinks QE3 is in the cards. Maybe. Even probably. But not until the water is coming over the bow, me thinks).
So what's this have to do with Oil supplies, politics, Matt Simmons, and Dan Yergin?
Simple. The emerging markets are going to continue to compete with the U.S. and the West for a declining volume of exported oil even as the deflationary wave (brought about by the withdrawal of liquidity in the same developing nations that are competing for said Oil) makes the production of marginal, unconventional oil very, very unprofitable. This, and I reserve the right to change my mind on a dime, will create the entry point for Oil that most of us missed in 2009. Actually, the entry point for equities, real estate, and other commodities, too.
BTW... I was kidding when I said "Simple". Also, shorting is for pros and big boys. Don't try it at home unless you know what you are doing and what risks you are taking.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
A WIder View - cont...
Before I get on with my rant, this article on why insider trading should be legalized appeared on the front page of Marketwatch.com. Laws regarding drugs, alcohol, tobacco, insider trading, etc... are ill considered and rarely, if ever, in the interests of The People. That is, The People that don't enjoy a good "perp walk". (Nancy Grace and her merry band of fat jag-offs are only too happy to ditch the presumption of innocence... and Habeas Corpus while they are at it). Speaking of which... how embarrassing to our Constitution, particularly the 4th Amendment, is the "prep walk"? Its not just embarrassing - it is a disgrace. An action unworthy of our role in the world. No wonder Ruddy Giuliani invented it; Giuliani might be the worst excuse for a human being here in America since gold ol' Senator Joe McCarthy.
Ok. On to my rant.
Oil supply has proved particularly vexing to the Cassandra's, while Oil price predicting have been unkind, in the extreme, to the Cornucopians. As it turns out Matt Simmons was right about prices for all the wrong reasons, and Dan Yergin was wrong about Oil prices for all of the right reasons... or as we say on Wall Street: "A great call - with nothing to show for it".
Yes, Oil prices are up (and lately down) back around $100 per barrel, and are almost entirely at this lofty price due to the US$'s decline relative to the rest of the currencies AND the political situation in the MENA countries, with just a little "Peak Oil Light" thrown in to screw up the parade. Oil exports might well have peaked, but ethanol, Nat Gas, and the Tar Sands have certainly lessened the blow.
See, that's the thing about the End of the Oil Age or even the End of the World. Industrious folks will try to profit from it. Maybe even call it off (for a while, anyway). They will convert corn into ethanol, build nuclear plants, maybe poison all of Canada to convert the Tar Sands if necessary.
I have mentioned before how much I am impressed with the handling of the financial crisis by the American Fed and Treasury. I am equally impressed by the world Oil industry's ability to squeeze production from non-conventional sources. Think things are bad? If it were not for the motivated actions of these 2 groups they would have been infinitely worse. Yes, I know gasoline is $4 or so, but that's a great deal better than the $6 I was thinking 2 or 3 years ago would be likely at this time.
As it turns out, the world doesn't want to end without a fight. It took 12 years for Oil to go from $10 glut with increasing production to $100 with relatively flat production. It might be another 10 or 15 years of price spikes and collapse before we know what's what with production. And that might be a good thing... because its all about the rate of change.
Everything is relative, and everybody's gotten this thing wrong. While the Cassandra's thought the world would end in 2010 and the Cornucopians said it was all tin-foil-hat B.S. my bet is most can't admit their own errors in calculation. The trend is your friend, and the trend suggests a long, drawn out slug-fest. Said slug-fest will likely eliminate the middle, but not the have's and have not's.
to be continued -
Ok. On to my rant.
Oil supply has proved particularly vexing to the Cassandra's, while Oil price predicting have been unkind, in the extreme, to the Cornucopians. As it turns out Matt Simmons was right about prices for all the wrong reasons, and Dan Yergin was wrong about Oil prices for all of the right reasons... or as we say on Wall Street: "A great call - with nothing to show for it".
Yes, Oil prices are up (and lately down) back around $100 per barrel, and are almost entirely at this lofty price due to the US$'s decline relative to the rest of the currencies AND the political situation in the MENA countries, with just a little "Peak Oil Light" thrown in to screw up the parade. Oil exports might well have peaked, but ethanol, Nat Gas, and the Tar Sands have certainly lessened the blow.
See, that's the thing about the End of the Oil Age or even the End of the World. Industrious folks will try to profit from it. Maybe even call it off (for a while, anyway). They will convert corn into ethanol, build nuclear plants, maybe poison all of Canada to convert the Tar Sands if necessary.
I have mentioned before how much I am impressed with the handling of the financial crisis by the American Fed and Treasury. I am equally impressed by the world Oil industry's ability to squeeze production from non-conventional sources. Think things are bad? If it were not for the motivated actions of these 2 groups they would have been infinitely worse. Yes, I know gasoline is $4 or so, but that's a great deal better than the $6 I was thinking 2 or 3 years ago would be likely at this time.
As it turns out, the world doesn't want to end without a fight. It took 12 years for Oil to go from $10 glut with increasing production to $100 with relatively flat production. It might be another 10 or 15 years of price spikes and collapse before we know what's what with production. And that might be a good thing... because its all about the rate of change.
Everything is relative, and everybody's gotten this thing wrong. While the Cassandra's thought the world would end in 2010 and the Cornucopians said it was all tin-foil-hat B.S. my bet is most can't admit their own errors in calculation. The trend is your friend, and the trend suggests a long, drawn out slug-fest. Said slug-fest will likely eliminate the middle, but not the have's and have not's.
to be continued -
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Meanwhile, Back at the Ranch...
Spring chores on the family homestead have been overwhelming my blogging efforts this week... before I get off into my rant I want to give a plug to the folks at scythesupply.com
I have been experimenting with ways to bring fresh grass, clovers, and weeds to my pigs (and goats when I confine them early in breeding season). I have tried raking up after my lawn mower, a rotary line cutter, an old-fashioned weed whacker, and now a scythe. The scythe wins hands down. In about 10 minutes of quiet and peaceful scything I have a wheelbarrow full of freshly cut green matter that I deliver to my hogs and chickens. I do this because I want all of my livestock to be as "grass fed" as possible. This is easy with the goats and cattle - just leave them out on the pasture - but not so much with confined poultry and hogs. However, with a scythe this process has now become infinitely more pleasant.
I am reading an excellent book, "Cold Mountain" by Charles Frasier (it was made into a good movie, too... but the book is simply excellent). I highly recommend it. In it there is a great deal about the need for knowledge when providing for oneself, and in particular a passage about how without ground working equipments - plows & harrows - nothing much beyond a kitchen garden is possible. I can tell you that that is quite accurate. Besides a huge vegetable garden we have several acres of corn, beans, and sunflowers planted for feed for next winter, as well as for corn flower - wheat will be next years project - that would not have been possible without equipment. If you are serious about homesteading, its either tractor or animal pulled ground breaking and clearing equipment... or failure.
---------------------------------------------
Now to my rant... I will get back to my "wider view" oil post soon, but some things have been bugging me lately... specifically the idea that our Federal Law Enforcement and Military personnel are currently being deployed to protect American Freedoms.
What a bunch of Bull Sh#!!
I love being an American. I love the idea of being able to vote for our president AND my local sheriff. I love our Constitution (with all of its wrinkles and warts from the stain of slavery). I F**king HATE when I am told that the above mentioned forces are being used to protect me and my rights. I have nothing but respect for our military personnel - but they are being placed in harm's way to PROTECT THE ECONOMIC INTERESTS of America's elite. They are not being used to protect The People and serve the Constitution. Iraq??!! Are you f***ing kidding me??!! And Af-stan? Perhaps somewhat more supportable than Iraq (and then again, perhaps not)... but now that we have figured out how to maul al-Queda at will, isn't it time to bring our military personnel home? And now that every federal official with a pulse knows that America's oil importing days are extremely numbered... under what pretext are we still fighting over Oil? So that America's elite can maintain their illusory wealth for a couple extra years.
Bin Laden deserved what he got. What about the group of men killed in Af-stan 8 years ago by drone strike because the U.S. thought one of the men was Bin Laden? Nobody even remembers this missile strike (except the dead men's family and friends). Turns out they were a completely innocent group of human beings going about their lives... Where is the outrage about their murder? Is collateral killing in "The War or Terrorism" somehow higher minded than those that killed on 9/11? NAFC. Worse, it gives incentive to a whole new generation of angry men bent on revenge to harm Americans (which is what a certain part of the establishment wants, no doubt, so that they can keep their outrageous budget's funded).
America's commander-in-chief(s) have not used American military forces to "support and defend the Constitution" in generations. That's the oath sworn by U.S. military personnel, and "preserve, protect and defend" for the president. Law enforcement officials take a similar oath. Where, exactly, in the Constitution is it written that these people have been empowered to protect the economic interests of The Corporations? Of The Pensions? I want to know, because that's what our military personnel have been killing and dying for.
Why are my fellow Americans only too willing to send young people off to war and prison? We have forgotten how to exercise our right to nullify stupid f***ing laws while serving on juries, as well as to nullify the budgets of the very agencies that cause what the CIA colloquially refers to as "Blow Back" (pissing off people to the point where they are willing to swap themselves for an opportunity to mass murder innocent Americans).
Why?
Because our economic system is all about enslaving people. We have given up our Constitutional rights in this plague we call the War on Drugs. Said war hasn't been won, nor even a single battle, and now our prisons overflowith. The establishment fears that addictions would keep the masses from the appointed rounds at the f***ing salt mines (well, that and we love our prison industrial complex... how else can a lawyer make several million dollars per trial unless the sentences are brutal?); its not your health and well being that concerns them.
Look at this asinine waste of resources that is known in the media as this generation's great "insider trading" scandal. What a f***ing joke. Do you know when these laws regarding insider trading were enacted? Back when we were still using rotary phones (if you are not over 50 you might not even know what that is). In the age of instant communication why not deregulate the flow of "insider information" both civilly and criminally? There would be NO WAY to gain the upper hand in that environment - the data would be out on the Web on thousands of blogs, wire services, news aggregators, etc... instantly. That would make things INFINITELY fairer than they are now.... but fair IS NOT what the establishment wants... what they want is to put people in prison and maintain their budgets at the SEC, FBI, and the rest of the alphabet jagoffs running around D.C. You think the U.S. Attorney's office in New York is filled with high-minded Dudley DoRights? Bull Sh#! That office is full of future defense attorney's interested in polishing up the resume and gaining a little experience before working for the other side - and the 7 figure per trial compensation. You think these guys want SANITY in the rule of law? NAFC. What they want are looooooong prison sentences and arcane rules so that the guys in the poke will be willing to write some serious checks to get off the hook.
Anyway, so these Dudley DoRight's have harpooned their whale. And nobody gives a second thought that this is silly and scientifically unsupportable law, and that the system just spent ten's of millions of $$ enforcing something that would not exist if it were handled otherwise, but handled as is will go on forever more. We have hungry children and illiterate adults as far as the eye can see, and an energy crunch looming that will make most of it moot... but the Mob wants blood.
When in Rome...
I have been experimenting with ways to bring fresh grass, clovers, and weeds to my pigs (and goats when I confine them early in breeding season). I have tried raking up after my lawn mower, a rotary line cutter, an old-fashioned weed whacker, and now a scythe. The scythe wins hands down. In about 10 minutes of quiet and peaceful scything I have a wheelbarrow full of freshly cut green matter that I deliver to my hogs and chickens. I do this because I want all of my livestock to be as "grass fed" as possible. This is easy with the goats and cattle - just leave them out on the pasture - but not so much with confined poultry and hogs. However, with a scythe this process has now become infinitely more pleasant.
I am reading an excellent book, "Cold Mountain" by Charles Frasier (it was made into a good movie, too... but the book is simply excellent). I highly recommend it. In it there is a great deal about the need for knowledge when providing for oneself, and in particular a passage about how without ground working equipments - plows & harrows - nothing much beyond a kitchen garden is possible. I can tell you that that is quite accurate. Besides a huge vegetable garden we have several acres of corn, beans, and sunflowers planted for feed for next winter, as well as for corn flower - wheat will be next years project - that would not have been possible without equipment. If you are serious about homesteading, its either tractor or animal pulled ground breaking and clearing equipment... or failure.
---------------------------------------------
Now to my rant... I will get back to my "wider view" oil post soon, but some things have been bugging me lately... specifically the idea that our Federal Law Enforcement and Military personnel are currently being deployed to protect American Freedoms.
What a bunch of Bull Sh#!!
I love being an American. I love the idea of being able to vote for our president AND my local sheriff. I love our Constitution (with all of its wrinkles and warts from the stain of slavery). I F**king HATE when I am told that the above mentioned forces are being used to protect me and my rights. I have nothing but respect for our military personnel - but they are being placed in harm's way to PROTECT THE ECONOMIC INTERESTS of America's elite. They are not being used to protect The People and serve the Constitution. Iraq??!! Are you f***ing kidding me??!! And Af-stan? Perhaps somewhat more supportable than Iraq (and then again, perhaps not)... but now that we have figured out how to maul al-Queda at will, isn't it time to bring our military personnel home? And now that every federal official with a pulse knows that America's oil importing days are extremely numbered... under what pretext are we still fighting over Oil? So that America's elite can maintain their illusory wealth for a couple extra years.
Bin Laden deserved what he got. What about the group of men killed in Af-stan 8 years ago by drone strike because the U.S. thought one of the men was Bin Laden? Nobody even remembers this missile strike (except the dead men's family and friends). Turns out they were a completely innocent group of human beings going about their lives... Where is the outrage about their murder? Is collateral killing in "The War or Terrorism" somehow higher minded than those that killed on 9/11? NAFC. Worse, it gives incentive to a whole new generation of angry men bent on revenge to harm Americans (which is what a certain part of the establishment wants, no doubt, so that they can keep their outrageous budget's funded).
America's commander-in-chief(s) have not used American military forces to "support and defend the Constitution" in generations. That's the oath sworn by U.S. military personnel, and "preserve, protect and defend" for the president. Law enforcement officials take a similar oath. Where, exactly, in the Constitution is it written that these people have been empowered to protect the economic interests of The Corporations? Of The Pensions? I want to know, because that's what our military personnel have been killing and dying for.
Why are my fellow Americans only too willing to send young people off to war and prison? We have forgotten how to exercise our right to nullify stupid f***ing laws while serving on juries, as well as to nullify the budgets of the very agencies that cause what the CIA colloquially refers to as "Blow Back" (pissing off people to the point where they are willing to swap themselves for an opportunity to mass murder innocent Americans).
Why?
Because our economic system is all about enslaving people. We have given up our Constitutional rights in this plague we call the War on Drugs. Said war hasn't been won, nor even a single battle, and now our prisons overflowith. The establishment fears that addictions would keep the masses from the appointed rounds at the f***ing salt mines (well, that and we love our prison industrial complex... how else can a lawyer make several million dollars per trial unless the sentences are brutal?); its not your health and well being that concerns them.
Look at this asinine waste of resources that is known in the media as this generation's great "insider trading" scandal. What a f***ing joke. Do you know when these laws regarding insider trading were enacted? Back when we were still using rotary phones (if you are not over 50 you might not even know what that is). In the age of instant communication why not deregulate the flow of "insider information" both civilly and criminally? There would be NO WAY to gain the upper hand in that environment - the data would be out on the Web on thousands of blogs, wire services, news aggregators, etc... instantly. That would make things INFINITELY fairer than they are now.... but fair IS NOT what the establishment wants... what they want is to put people in prison and maintain their budgets at the SEC, FBI, and the rest of the alphabet jagoffs running around D.C. You think the U.S. Attorney's office in New York is filled with high-minded Dudley DoRights? Bull Sh#! That office is full of future defense attorney's interested in polishing up the resume and gaining a little experience before working for the other side - and the 7 figure per trial compensation. You think these guys want SANITY in the rule of law? NAFC. What they want are looooooong prison sentences and arcane rules so that the guys in the poke will be willing to write some serious checks to get off the hook.
Anyway, so these Dudley DoRight's have harpooned their whale. And nobody gives a second thought that this is silly and scientifically unsupportable law, and that the system just spent ten's of millions of $$ enforcing something that would not exist if it were handled otherwise, but handled as is will go on forever more. We have hungry children and illiterate adults as far as the eye can see, and an energy crunch looming that will make most of it moot... but the Mob wants blood.
When in Rome...
Monday, May 9, 2011
A Wider View
Let us take a 25 year view. One generation or so. Let us put ourselves right in the middle, here, in 2011.
12.5 years ago Oil was going down like a rock in a pond, Nasdaq was screaming to the stars, everybody had a job and everybody expected to get rich by buying a house, leasing a Mercedes, and starting a dot.com. You were nobody without an MBA from a prestigious institution (unless you were a Billionaire... even self made multi-Millionaires - doctors, lawyers, small business owners - were second class citizens).
Over the next 5 years, until 2005 or so, the stock market tanked, then rebounded, and the housing market went ballistic. While on very few people's radar screen Oil was making its way higher. Not alarming at first - until it crossed the magical $50 line and Goldman's Murti called for a super spike - maybe as high as $105. A little known brokerage firm in Boca Raton, FL, with yours truly's name on the door tried to tell this story to the individual investor. We made a good living peddling the story... but most people thought I was out of my freaking tree (this is 2000, mind you... many of my old staff read here regularly... most of them thought I was out of my freaking tree, too. It was a hard sell. The Euro was in the crapper, Oil was, too, and the US$ was ascendent. Then came Ken Deffeyes' book "Hubbert's Peak" which gave us some cover, but not enough to make sales.)
From 2005 - 2008 the battle was on. The Fed tried to expand credit, destroyed the financial system, and Oil took flight from $50 to nearly $150. The fight raged between the Cornucopian's and the Cassandra's. The price collapse in late 2008 and 2009 gave the Cassandra's the upper hand, only to be TKO'd by $100 plus Oil in 2011. Over the 2005-2011 housing crashed, banks crashed, precious metals flew, Oil seesawed ever higher (average yearly price, that is), and the U.S. worker earnings crumbled.
Pretty much what the Cassandra's were saying would happen in a fractional reserve banking system given the end of Oil supply growth. Not exactly, and not in line with the more vocal fringe doomers... but close enough for government work.
With me so far?
Oil and the housing crash were coincidental... sort of... for the most part. Oil's price rise certainly put a crimp on extending the housing bubble, but these were 2, very independent events.
Taking that into consideration, I think the end of steady growth in the supply of Oil has had a tremendously negative effect on the U.S. economy over the past 6 years. It is very likely (to me a near certainty, but you never know) the next 12.5 years will see a dramatic decline in the supply of Oil to the industrial West, and the U.S. in particular. Perhaps within 15 - 20 years Oil exports, and therefor imports, will cease altogether.
Looking back on what happened to the U.S. economy when Oil supplies ceased growing and comparing that scenario to one in which Oil supplies are cut by 50% or 60% (imports into the U.S. cease other than those from Canada) is going to take some amount of abstract thinking.... and a willingness to refuse to suffer a failure of imagination.
Markets will tell you all you really need to know IF you pay attention and do not take in only the data that supports your prejudices. Silver and Gold seemed to be predicting some type of currency crisis... yet homesteads, livestock, gardening equipment, "prepper" gear... were all going begging. There is no doubt in my mind that the world's currency system will absolutely, positively blow up at some point... but that point is likely quite a few years out; and you will be able to know when it is real - when consumer goods are in short supply and family farms have become quite dear, the currency crisis is upon us.
That this will unfold at some point I have little doubt... that it will happen in the near future is almost completely up to the politics of the MENA - something that is difficult, if not impossible, to call AND profit from.
-to be continued...
P.S. I pick up my bee hives tomorrow morning. I am very excited about this new addition to the farm.
12.5 years ago Oil was going down like a rock in a pond, Nasdaq was screaming to the stars, everybody had a job and everybody expected to get rich by buying a house, leasing a Mercedes, and starting a dot.com. You were nobody without an MBA from a prestigious institution (unless you were a Billionaire... even self made multi-Millionaires - doctors, lawyers, small business owners - were second class citizens).
Over the next 5 years, until 2005 or so, the stock market tanked, then rebounded, and the housing market went ballistic. While on very few people's radar screen Oil was making its way higher. Not alarming at first - until it crossed the magical $50 line and Goldman's Murti called for a super spike - maybe as high as $105. A little known brokerage firm in Boca Raton, FL, with yours truly's name on the door tried to tell this story to the individual investor. We made a good living peddling the story... but most people thought I was out of my freaking tree (this is 2000, mind you... many of my old staff read here regularly... most of them thought I was out of my freaking tree, too. It was a hard sell. The Euro was in the crapper, Oil was, too, and the US$ was ascendent. Then came Ken Deffeyes' book "Hubbert's Peak" which gave us some cover, but not enough to make sales.)
From 2005 - 2008 the battle was on. The Fed tried to expand credit, destroyed the financial system, and Oil took flight from $50 to nearly $150. The fight raged between the Cornucopian's and the Cassandra's. The price collapse in late 2008 and 2009 gave the Cassandra's the upper hand, only to be TKO'd by $100 plus Oil in 2011. Over the 2005-2011 housing crashed, banks crashed, precious metals flew, Oil seesawed ever higher (average yearly price, that is), and the U.S. worker earnings crumbled.
Pretty much what the Cassandra's were saying would happen in a fractional reserve banking system given the end of Oil supply growth. Not exactly, and not in line with the more vocal fringe doomers... but close enough for government work.
With me so far?
Oil and the housing crash were coincidental... sort of... for the most part. Oil's price rise certainly put a crimp on extending the housing bubble, but these were 2, very independent events.
Taking that into consideration, I think the end of steady growth in the supply of Oil has had a tremendously negative effect on the U.S. economy over the past 6 years. It is very likely (to me a near certainty, but you never know) the next 12.5 years will see a dramatic decline in the supply of Oil to the industrial West, and the U.S. in particular. Perhaps within 15 - 20 years Oil exports, and therefor imports, will cease altogether.
Looking back on what happened to the U.S. economy when Oil supplies ceased growing and comparing that scenario to one in which Oil supplies are cut by 50% or 60% (imports into the U.S. cease other than those from Canada) is going to take some amount of abstract thinking.... and a willingness to refuse to suffer a failure of imagination.
Markets will tell you all you really need to know IF you pay attention and do not take in only the data that supports your prejudices. Silver and Gold seemed to be predicting some type of currency crisis... yet homesteads, livestock, gardening equipment, "prepper" gear... were all going begging. There is no doubt in my mind that the world's currency system will absolutely, positively blow up at some point... but that point is likely quite a few years out; and you will be able to know when it is real - when consumer goods are in short supply and family farms have become quite dear, the currency crisis is upon us.
That this will unfold at some point I have little doubt... that it will happen in the near future is almost completely up to the politics of the MENA - something that is difficult, if not impossible, to call AND profit from.
-to be continued...
P.S. I pick up my bee hives tomorrow morning. I am very excited about this new addition to the farm.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
US$ could rally - BIG (especially against some ridiculously valued currencies)
The Mad Scientist has been beating the drum, along with Mike Shedlock, about the coming disaster in Australia. I had put off addressing that issue... until today.
Australia's currency, stock markets, and banking system are likely to go through what the U.S. went thru 3 years ago. I have thought their currency to be bubbling for sometime... but I don't short things that are still going up - they have to break first, then I short. I think The Australian $ is doomed, the Canadian $ is over-priced, as is the Yen and the Euro... but the best opportunity to score big is betting against Australia.
Downunder is about to Slip under...
You heard it here first.... sort of. Those guys have been jumping up and down about the Aussie impending implosion... my money says it is here, now, and this is the moment - today's events were the breaking point.
---------------------------------------------------
ROFL!! What Rail system?
----------------------------------------------
The Baltic Dry Goods Index has fallen completely out of bed. Not a good sign for commodities or commodity currencies. Nor a good sign for industrial growth in China.
----------------------------------------------
Propaganda is everywhere... read this Drek on why you should step in front of a freight train regarding silver. To tired to pull it apart here, but the writer is worse than ill informed... he's FOS. Silver might go higher soon for all I know (though I doubt it... once a bubble gets popped its hard to put humpty dumpty together... even Silver), but not for any of the reasons this jerk lists.
------------------------------
Its all about Oil, and it ain't getting any easier to read the tea leaves. Except the Aussie $$. Party over.
------------------------------
Its all about Oil, and it ain't getting any easier to read the tea leaves. Except the Aussie $$. Party over.
So Much for Commodity Inflation
Well, the bell has been rung, and its hard to un-ring a bell... That's the end of commodity inflation... and since that's the only inflation we had... well, there is no inflation.
Oil, Silver, Markets in General
The bloom is off the rose in commodities for a while... Oil might be the only commodity to hold up reasonably well, and then again it might not. I am not long Oil yet, but I do like buying the drillers and Oil services when they are getting beaten up. While AVERAGE Oil prices may have ceiling to them, I think that the ceiling is MUCH, MUCH higher in the budgets of the producers for spending on production and exploration... at least that has been the case for the past 5 years where the Oil service industry revenue has DOUBLED but the equites have not budged.
In short, for investors (as opposed to traders) I think energy equities will outperform Oil for a while. And one day, Nat Gas will outperform them all - and I am working on which day.
The easy money in shorting silver has been made... I still think it is going down, but there can be painful rallies if you are caught short. Best to short rallies and miss opportunities, me thinks. On Gold - I have no opinion.
Remember, there is a big difference between the short and long term. I made that critical mistake and missed one of the biggest rallies ever in the equity markets. There is also a big difference between a "trader" and an "investor". Traders buy "green" and sell "red"; investors buy "low" and sell "high" - there are several world's of difference between the 2.
In short, for investors (as opposed to traders) I think energy equities will outperform Oil for a while. And one day, Nat Gas will outperform them all - and I am working on which day.
The easy money in shorting silver has been made... I still think it is going down, but there can be painful rallies if you are caught short. Best to short rallies and miss opportunities, me thinks. On Gold - I have no opinion.
Remember, there is a big difference between the short and long term. I made that critical mistake and missed one of the biggest rallies ever in the equity markets. There is also a big difference between a "trader" and an "investor". Traders buy "green" and sell "red"; investors buy "low" and sell "high" - there are several world's of difference between the 2.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Short and Long Term
There is a big difference between the short and the long term. And it helps to have definitions.
Long term ALL paper currencies are doomed. DOOMED. 10 - 20 years out, I think the US$ and the rest of the major currencies will be FUBAR. What's that have to do with 6 months from now?
There are battles, and then there's the war. In chess we have a open/beginning game, mid game, and an end game.
There is "survive" and then there is flourish. There is a great deal one can do to help themselves flourish before the end game.
Like... sell silver and use the down payment for a homestead. Someone who bought just 1000 ounces of Silver back a few years ago when I first started writing about it would now have enough to put 20% down on a homestead and have enough left over to provision it. They would also have the luxury of time to adjust to their new life style (because it takes some getting used to).
I bought my homestead with the proceeds of my Oil trades over the last decade. I PUT my money where my mouth is. I DO think that the homestead was the right investment (though I would like more land and a bigger house). And still I think commodities will break big at some point before they become the only investment worth owning (and not just precious metals.... and of course, I could be wrong).
Silver has become dear, and homesteads are cheap.
----------------------------------------------
On my pet peeve against sports related injuries....
The report is in on Dave Duerson's brain: "moderately advanced" CTE (Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy) is the diagnosis. If you have children, I hope you will reconsider sports like football and boxing (guilty on both accounts). Heck, not reconsider... I hope will NOT consider these sports whatsoever. Going through life with undiagnosed brain damage from something you did as a kid is just unacceptable. We can't change the past, whatever you did is done... but we don't have to do this to our children... and no amount of denial from the NFL or the UFC or the Nevada bBoxing Commission is going to put the shaving cream back in the can.
The end of the Oil Age is upon us. Sports injuries (WTF??) have NO PLACE in your child's future.
------------------------------------------------
I wonder what the feminist/abortion rights folks make of this unintended consequence.
------------------------------------------------
I added to certain energy equities today... but I am flat Oil.
Long term ALL paper currencies are doomed. DOOMED. 10 - 20 years out, I think the US$ and the rest of the major currencies will be FUBAR. What's that have to do with 6 months from now?
There are battles, and then there's the war. In chess we have a open/beginning game, mid game, and an end game.
There is "survive" and then there is flourish. There is a great deal one can do to help themselves flourish before the end game.
Like... sell silver and use the down payment for a homestead. Someone who bought just 1000 ounces of Silver back a few years ago when I first started writing about it would now have enough to put 20% down on a homestead and have enough left over to provision it. They would also have the luxury of time to adjust to their new life style (because it takes some getting used to).
I bought my homestead with the proceeds of my Oil trades over the last decade. I PUT my money where my mouth is. I DO think that the homestead was the right investment (though I would like more land and a bigger house). And still I think commodities will break big at some point before they become the only investment worth owning (and not just precious metals.... and of course, I could be wrong).
Silver has become dear, and homesteads are cheap.
----------------------------------------------
On my pet peeve against sports related injuries....
The report is in on Dave Duerson's brain: "moderately advanced" CTE (Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy) is the diagnosis. If you have children, I hope you will reconsider sports like football and boxing (guilty on both accounts). Heck, not reconsider... I hope will NOT consider these sports whatsoever. Going through life with undiagnosed brain damage from something you did as a kid is just unacceptable. We can't change the past, whatever you did is done... but we don't have to do this to our children... and no amount of denial from the NFL or the UFC or the Nevada bBoxing Commission is going to put the shaving cream back in the can.
The end of the Oil Age is upon us. Sports injuries (WTF??) have NO PLACE in your child's future.
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I wonder what the feminist/abortion rights folks make of this unintended consequence.
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I added to certain energy equities today... but I am flat Oil.
Great Call, Mr. President!
After further reflection, I am impressed with the political courage of President Obama.
The president made what many are describing as a "very gutsy call" in sending U.S. Navy SEALS by helicopter to kill or capture Osama bin-Laden.
I have to agree - and I have a new found respect for our Commander-in-Chief's decision making. Helicopters are notoriously dangerous equipment, and given President Carter's experience in the Iran Hostage Crisis, one could see how the president might rely on long range missiles or drones. But killing innocent people to avenge the murder (or bring justice, whatever term of art you will) of innocent people, which is what missiles do, seems altogether unacceptable.
It WAS a gutsy call, and we must give credit where credit is due. A president is first and foremost our Commander-in-Chief, and this president just proved he has the stuff to make very tough decisions. This could have easily gone very wrong, and the president would have had to answer for that at the polls in what will be a bruising election.
Also, I mentioned that there will be unintended consequences - such as ambush of American service personnel in Af-stan. To be fair to the president, I do not think that this "gutsy call" has been lost on a great many other adversaries - open or otherwise. Having a president knocking around the White House with some steel in his spine is worth more than a couple of fancy weapon's systems.
Hail to the Chief!!
The president made what many are describing as a "very gutsy call" in sending U.S. Navy SEALS by helicopter to kill or capture Osama bin-Laden.
I have to agree - and I have a new found respect for our Commander-in-Chief's decision making. Helicopters are notoriously dangerous equipment, and given President Carter's experience in the Iran Hostage Crisis, one could see how the president might rely on long range missiles or drones. But killing innocent people to avenge the murder (or bring justice, whatever term of art you will) of innocent people, which is what missiles do, seems altogether unacceptable.
It WAS a gutsy call, and we must give credit where credit is due. A president is first and foremost our Commander-in-Chief, and this president just proved he has the stuff to make very tough decisions. This could have easily gone very wrong, and the president would have had to answer for that at the polls in what will be a bruising election.
Also, I mentioned that there will be unintended consequences - such as ambush of American service personnel in Af-stan. To be fair to the president, I do not think that this "gutsy call" has been lost on a great many other adversaries - open or otherwise. Having a president knocking around the White House with some steel in his spine is worth more than a couple of fancy weapon's systems.
Hail to the Chief!!
Monday, May 2, 2011
Commodities best streak since 1997
Commodities have had their best streak since 1997 vs financial assets.
Markets zig and zag, they do not zig and zig. Its best to buy low and/or sell high. If you miss buying low, you can always short them high. When one sided markets begin to break... it usually ain't over in a day.
Markets zig and zag, they do not zig and zig. Its best to buy low and/or sell high. If you miss buying low, you can always short them high. When one sided markets begin to break... it usually ain't over in a day.
U.S. $
The U.S. $$ has been going down like a rock in a pond. The price decline versus the other major currencies since 2010 has been unprecedented.
Markets, including currencies, do not zig and zig and zig... they zig and zag. I don't know exactly when the US$ will find a bid, but I do think it will happen relatively soon. The End of the World is not upon us - yet.
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Just because I think the US$ and the world are not coming to and end doesn't mean that I think our system won't grind average "Joe" into the muck and mire - I do think that. My response is is to not be "Joe"; its still good to be King, however you define that, and its more fun, too.
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Osama Bin-Laden Dead. Even with my rock hard belief in the sanctity of Life, I am having a hard time feeling that this killing was wrong. I did not lose any friends or family on 9/11 but I knew many of the people that died in the Towers from my time working in the Securities industry. I hope that their families, and all of those killed by al-Queda and like minded organizations experience a bit of closure in this.
Of course, there will be consequences; unintended consequences. Killing will always beget more killing. The execution of Bin Laden will result in the ambush of American service personnel in Afghanistan. Somewhere in America, there is a mother who may be celebrating Osama's death... only to receive a knock on her door from a military chaplain and a Major General... and an American flag.
Still, my sense is that Bin Laden had worn out his welcome on this earth... and to our intelligence agencies and the military's credit, a message has been delivered, Israeli style, to those who would commit mass murder of innocents. Rot in H***.
"I've never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure." - Mark Twain
Yours for a better world,
Greg
Markets, including currencies, do not zig and zig and zig... they zig and zag. I don't know exactly when the US$ will find a bid, but I do think it will happen relatively soon. The End of the World is not upon us - yet.
----------------------------------------------
Just because I think the US$ and the world are not coming to and end doesn't mean that I think our system won't grind average "Joe" into the muck and mire - I do think that. My response is is to not be "Joe"; its still good to be King, however you define that, and its more fun, too.
--------------------------------------------
Osama Bin-Laden Dead. Even with my rock hard belief in the sanctity of Life, I am having a hard time feeling that this killing was wrong. I did not lose any friends or family on 9/11 but I knew many of the people that died in the Towers from my time working in the Securities industry. I hope that their families, and all of those killed by al-Queda and like minded organizations experience a bit of closure in this.
Of course, there will be consequences; unintended consequences. Killing will always beget more killing. The execution of Bin Laden will result in the ambush of American service personnel in Afghanistan. Somewhere in America, there is a mother who may be celebrating Osama's death... only to receive a knock on her door from a military chaplain and a Major General... and an American flag.
Still, my sense is that Bin Laden had worn out his welcome on this earth... and to our intelligence agencies and the military's credit, a message has been delivered, Israeli style, to those who would commit mass murder of innocents. Rot in H***.
"I've never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure." - Mark Twain
Yours for a better world,
Greg
Sunday, May 1, 2011
"Known Unknown's"
Calling markets is tough enough. Calling them when the rules and policies change everyday is impossible.
Market's that are head up, including those in bubbles, will keep going up until they stop going up (no sh#!, eh?). Still, this commodity bull's day's are numbered. One, competition from stocks and bonds is going to be steep. Two, the end of the bond buying means the end of that supply of money into that market place. Three, the Fed & the Treasury and the various central banks have proven beyond a doubt that will do ANYTHING to achieve short term policy objectives (think about that for a moment). Four, grains led the market up, and good weather will change that in ways I am not poetic enough to describe.... and bad weather will have the same effect, in the opposite direction. (Making bets on global weather has never been a great way to make a living.) Notice I said grains led the market up - NOT OIL. And Gold is not a reasonable comparison as Gold, unlike Oil and Corn, is not consumed.... only produced. FIVE, and MOST IMPORTANT: There is no inflation in real estate or wages. The market for homes and jobs DWARF'S the commodity pits. If there were any threat of inflation, you would see it in homes and wages.
(BTW... on food inflation? Do you know what would happen to food prices if poor, working class, and middle class American's were incentivized - either positively (a PR campaign) or negatively (denied food stamps) - to produce food? From city gardens to back yard chickens to neighborhood dairies this increased margin of production would/could crush food prices, farmers, Ag companies, etc... think I exaggerate? Any gardener knows I am not. A small plot will yield ALL of the veggies and chicken/hog feed for a month or 2. No, not all year... but think of what would happen to prices in this very inelastic market when food supply increases by 1/12 (the summer harvest)! There is a reason that for THOUSANDS of years Agriculture has not been a profitable business for commerce... and that is because there are no barriers to entry for people to grow their own food... and each and every tomato or potato grown at home eats into the commodity price of the commercially produced tomato or potato.)
(BTW... on food inflation? Do you know what would happen to food prices if poor, working class, and middle class American's were incentivized - either positively (a PR campaign) or negatively (denied food stamps) - to produce food? From city gardens to back yard chickens to neighborhood dairies this increased margin of production would/could crush food prices, farmers, Ag companies, etc... think I exaggerate? Any gardener knows I am not. A small plot will yield ALL of the veggies and chicken/hog feed for a month or 2. No, not all year... but think of what would happen to prices in this very inelastic market when food supply increases by 1/12 (the summer harvest)! There is a reason that for THOUSANDS of years Agriculture has not been a profitable business for commerce... and that is because there are no barriers to entry for people to grow their own food... and each and every tomato or potato grown at home eats into the commodity price of the commercially produced tomato or potato.)
I know many people here HATE Bernake, but I gotta take my hat off to him. When I hear him state that "the inflation we are experiencing now is transitory" I believe that he is likely to be very correct. The only place we are seeing price inflation of any sort is in commodities. Some commodities are VERY price inelastic - a small move in supply/demand makes for BIG price moves.
Translating Bernake's "transitory" comments leads me to believe that he is more concerned with deflation (of credit) than inflation, and if correct that dovetails nicely with the Fed's and the U.S. Treasury's seeming unconcern regarding inflation and the US$ (and of course, they could be wrong).
So... here it is... EITHER; Real Estate & wage inflation rises to meet commodities, OR; Commodity prices fall to meet Real Estate and wage price deflation.
EXCEPT!
For Oil.
Oil remains the f*&^*%ing fly in the G** DA** ointment in all of this.
Let me give you an example (of several things, including that journalists continue to prove incapable of independent, abstract thought). Read this article.
Got that? See any conundrum's there? How can the market support higher prices of all of these industrially produced consumer goods with item #9 - falling or stagnant wages? By deficit spending AND/OR increased energy prices/declining energy supplies (and or some combination of the 2). In fact, shouldn't this be the exact outcome of declining energy inputs? After all, declining energy inputs leads to production of less (per capita) consumer goods and lower productivity?
(BTW... Let us define productivity. If you measure it using currency/GDP you will be misled as far as production applies to the USE OF ENERGY. If one used the total weight of goods produced multiplied by the total distance those goods were transported one would have a decent "apples to apples" comparison of productivity, or production, than using GDP (which is not adjusted for currency and a bizzilion other variables that have nothing to do with how much energy was brought to bear)).
(More on that productivity comparison soon. I have been noodling it for a while and I want to open that up for a proper discussion.)
We are back to "its all about Oil" once again. The financial system is functioning reasonably, and likely will until the derivative bomb goes off... and that will probably be brought about by Oil...
One could go looney thinking this through...
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