Oh.... My...... G-d..... "Obama Rolls out plan to cut Oil Imports."
G-d is cutting Oil imports, not President Obama, or any future president for that matter.
Now that Peak Oil Exports has been fully embraced by an American administration... well, you gotta admire how they are taking credit for an ineluctable outcome.
My hat is off to the President for this one... he just one-upped President Clinton in the "Slick" category.
Ok... Just kidding. If I were working as one of his political operatives, this is pretty much the tack I would take. Might as well take credit for something that is going to happen anyway, selling the policy response as being a good thing, and hope to h*ll it gets me through the next election when gas is $5 per gallon.
Most of the reasoning contained in the speech was actually reasonably sound - all except for the actual, practical responses. Still, we are getting there.
Oh, and one last thing Mr. President. Imports will likely be down by 2/3 over the next decade... not 1/3.
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Here in western Kansas the thing we are seeing now is county roads, paved for 60 years, are being returned to dirt roads. I am waiting to see the first non-Amish horse and buggy!
Yep as I mentioned in my blog post today the gravel roads near my place, which have always been re-graveled in March were just lightly spotted with new gravel this year.
The signs are popping up all over it seems.
The major interstates are falling apart here. They aren't being converted to gravel by man but by nature and man's inability to maintain them..
Pot hole city at this point. A few more months and they will be all but impassable.
ChrisInGa
I think that was industrial strength stupid. Instead of just coming out and saying that we have no choice and while some may not be interested in change, that is not an option, so we either make changes or let the existential reality impose them on us. He decided to take credit for something he can’t control. As a result he owns the oil crash. Instead of arguing over whether peak oil has any merit, and what we should do about it; we will get to watch fatheads argue over whether we should follow Obama’s impoverish America plan or remove the restrictions on importing more oil. Brilliant!
Best,
Dan
One of our rural schools just put up a corral at the behest of students that can’t afford to drive to school anymore.
Best,
Dan
I was watching that speech today and all I could think was that I can't wait to hear from West Texas about the amount that imports would fall with the natural decline in exports from oil exporting nations. He actually took credit for the U.S. Importing less than 50% of its oil last yr. WTF, he is truly a politician in the worst sense. On top of it, he acted like drilling won’t help. That seems to be ridiculous considering that with falling imports you have to make up a massive amount of that fall to have anything resembling a working economy. At least the money is staying in the U.S. and creating jobs and not sending more money overseas. Even if they could not increase production we still need to offset production losses.
Jeffers how fast is the us domestic oil production suppose to fall over this period. If like you say we lose 66% of imports (was that just hyperbole) and something like 20% of domestic production (have no idea if this number is realistic). That would be around 42% of U.S. usage by 2025 or so. If we got on it and started updating heating in the Northeast to NG we might save what % of distillate (heating oil) production for transportation purposes.
I have said for some time that one of the major, yet unforeseen consequences of Peak Oil is Peak Pavement and I think we've already reached the latter.
There is no cheap, practical alternative to hot mix asphalt (HMA.) Concrete still takes lots of diesel to haul and spread along with lots of natural gas for the cement kilns. Either type of road takes lots of taxes to pay for and of course, governments are broke. There has been some talk of per-mile taxes being assessed to drivers to make up for the loss of per-gallon fuel taxes as fuel use goes down due to peak oil and increasing electric car use, but the opposition to that tax is fierce. So even IF we could get cheap electric or natural gas powered cars, we won't have nearly the pavement miles to drive them on that we do now.
Of course the remaining pavement dollars will go to downtown roads and high-use, urban and suburban roads. Redundant roads such as the many US Routes that parallel the US Interstates (Rt 1 and I-95 here in the Northeast, or I-95 and US Rt. 2 up in northern Maine for example) will force choices as to which road to abandon.
Most roads have already gotten the last coating of pavement they'll ever get. Dextred and I shared a conversation here some months ago where Dex remarked that it's possible to build a thick, deep roadbed that lasts decades between pavings and I wouldn't doubt it. But the chance to do so has passed.
In the end we'll have *some* pavement in town, and perhaps on a few key, intercity roads (though the latter will certainly lose the multiple lanes.) Most other roads are going back to dirt and gravel, as John, Pioneer, and several media articles I've read over the past two years attest to.
For this reason alone I think we will see a resurgence in freight if not passenger rail. Two steel rails last far longer at much less financial cost (with only some tie and ballast work needed occasionally...and the ties are renewable) than HMA roads do.
(Blog note: I've had a lot of trouble posting here over the past few weeks. Several times I've typed in comments only to have the server generate an unspecified error. I've usually then given up. It happened again this time, but I simply rewrote a second time what I wrote the first time. From here on it seems I have to cut and save my writings here before I submit them....'Not sure if anybody else has had this happen.)
Dan @4:34.
You're kidding !?!
I have had a lot of problems posting to. That is why I was not using my account name. My account is working now, but sometimes it does not, so I just started using my id at the bottom like the other anon's until the last couple of days.
By the way in Michigan we are having some real debates about road funding right now. I agree most roads will go to gravel if not heavily used. I think this might even be a good thing, the only problem is many people buy cars that can’t handle the pounding dirt/gravel roads provide. I change my struts and shocks every couple yrs on my trucks and car.
We did not get plowed from Friday at 5 p.m. to Monday 7 a.m. on the side roads this winter and the county only bought enough salt to take care of highways because of federal and state mandates to get the road building money. Luckily I have a snow plow and pushed the worst storms myself to get to the main roads.
It was on the news a while back. They put up a little corral for some teen then a few more joined in. I think they said he was riding about twelve miles each way. I reckon he could have ridden a bicycle just as easy but that wouldn’t have been newsworthy.
Best,
Dan
That is great. I wish I could ride a horse, don't have one yet. That is my goal for this yr, haha. Then maybe my kids can ride them to school in 5 yrs. That thought cracks me up. What was that Arab saying "my grandfather rode camels, my dad drove cars, I fly on planes and my children will ride camels” I think that is how it goes. Anyways that could be more predictive than we could have known.
I've given some thought to what it would be like to be the first non-Amish riding around on a horse and/or buggy and I've come to the conclusion that it'd take some nerve, at least for now. There would be a lot of explaining to do for one thing. 'Not sure of what the Amish would think either...not that it would matter.
Horses are pretty expensive in their own right. Only the well to do owned horses back in the day, especially in the cities, any how.
I think there are some of the cement parts of route 66 have not been repaved since the 30’s and are none the worse for wear. They have a somewhat annoying rhythmic clop, clop, clop as drive down them, however you can still fly down it at 65MPH no problem. It’ll probably still be a fine road in another 80 years, we should have made them all that way. I know that is considered gold plating it, but when you consider that it outlived the bonds used to build it…
There are a lot of things like that. I have a Ford 9N tractor that will probably be put to pasture by one of my great grandkids (great-great?) after the oil supply is totally gone. All of the stress points are massive pieces of iron. When you consider that it has toiled away for 70 years and is still going strong, it’s obvious it was NOT an inefficient use of materials.
Best,
Dan
I have had the same issue with blogger when I stopped signing and started posting anonymously.
Best,
Dan
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Route 66 runs through fairly dry, fairly snow-free country.
The New York State Through-way had some large concrete sections, built in the 50s and 60s, and IIRC, most all of those sections deteriorated pretty badly and got HMA coverings about 25 years ago.
The major highways and interstates around southern New England go at best, 15 years before needing another layer.
From Chicago to LA via Oklahoma City. Throughout Oklahoma there are good sections that appear to be the original cement. The north-eastern part of the state, where it enters, is a temperate forest that gets good rainfall and freezes, the west central part where it leaves is mixed short and tall grass prairie with little rainfall though it freezes.
Asphalt still needs regular resurfacing here.
Best,
Dan
BHO wants another pile of regulations and subsidies to promote what the pricing mechanism and free market would take care of more quickly and efficiently. More stupid socialist mumbo jumbo. I'm just sick of these butt heads. All the regulation will do is give bad solutions an economic advantage over good ones as each special interest is serviced in turn. Phooey!
Electric cars will be economical when the price of oil is high enough. Same for CNG. There is a CNG gas station on Rt 1 half way between Providence and Boston. It's already starting. Same for heat pumps to replace oil heat. Same for solar and wind and on and on. Each will naturally take its place, if left to the market.
Regards,
Coal Guy
Coal guy,
The o'bum has just took credit for peak oil, how cute. HAHAHAHAHAHA.
Dex,
I hope it's his albatross.
He wants to own it so he can regulate it for the benefit of all the big money guys that paid for his election. He is the ultimate tool.
Regards,
Coal Guy
Reason TV’s Ted Balaker offers a lengthy look into how government and academia teamed up in California to stifle scientific dissent and pass new environmental regulations on the basis of fraud. This shows the complete fraud of the left and their agenda. Watch and learn the insanity of the left, Only 10 min.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5J32_ba-y0
I saw this today. No details but you can never quite count technology out of the game even if it looks unlikely..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110331/bs_afp/spainenergyalternativeenvironmentresearch
Dan I would bet that 9N will be going even after we have switched to synthetic fuel of some sort that costs an arm and leg. Those 8 and 9N's are the bomb. I grew up with an 8N and bought a 9N with my father just recently. I think they are the best tractors ever made. I am betting some sort of propane or NG conversion is out for them as well.
Concrete, at least the mixture from 20 years ago that I poured at the in-law's subdivision, will last at least 12 to 15 years or so with no maintenance needed I was told. Slab road is the best but depending is usually so expensive you can resurface yearly with asphalt for 20 years and still spend less than the initial cost of concrete. Again dated info maybe different these days.
As imports trend downward in tandem with GDP, BHO has just jumped up and screamed BLAME ME!!! In 2024 idealogs on the right will still be blaming BHO; and there is a good chance the average uninformed public will believe it. It’s been a long, long time since I have seen a politician do something this dumb. The only question now is how long until this blows up.
Best,
Dan
The tractor is awesome. She’s been doing light duty as a big ole lawn mower for the last several years, and I hadn’t seen the plow since I was a kid. However I found it in a wooded area that had grown up around the implements, hitched it up and she pulled it just fine. However I think I’ll get a rototiller attachment instead. It’ll use less fuel to do it in one pass, and it’s easier. The other implements are going to need a lot of work before they are useable, except the rake. I found an old horse drawn hay rake that had been converted to hook to the tractor that I don’t recall having seen before. I reckon it will make sense to buy gas for it regardless of the cost, unlike my car.
On the cement, I am assuming that it hasn’t been resurfaced. I could easily be wrong. It is definitely old though, they haven’t paved highways like that in decades. If it only lasts twenty years it would make no sense however I think it lasts much longer. I’m certain several of the concrete residential roads around here haven’t been resurfaced. However they don’t get the same wear. The longevity may have a lot to do with the frost line. It’s 18” around here so getting under it isn’t quite the problem it is up north. I wonder how thick the concrete is on those roads?
Best,
Dan
Well my figures from way back when were what it was reported to last as a minimum. I know slab road as slang around here for concrete was thought by the old timers as lasting "darn near forever". Heh some of the Roman concrete has lasted this long although I am not sure of the actual chemical makeup of it.
I wonder what kind of tractor tiller would hook up to the 9N PTO? The tiller I use actually goes on my step dads Massey I don;t think it would fit the old ford.... hmmmm but I haven't actually tried it either.
I never even considered that, I just thought that the three point hitches were standard.
Best,
Dan
If we extrapolate the 2005 to 2009 rate of decline in the US oil consumption to production ratio, it would hit 100% around 2024 (which means zero net oil imports into the US).
Coincidentally, if we extrapolate Chindia's 2005 to 2009 rate of increase in net oil imports, as a percentage of global net oil exports, they would hit 100% in 2025 (when they would consume all global net oil exports).
Going to be an "interesting" 15 years.
The comments on the longevity of certain cement roads are interesting, but of course, that's beside the point that the vast majority of roads aren't built this way and it's too late to rebuild them.
We couldn't afford to build all the roads to these "overbuilt" concrete standards the first time when energy and oil were cheap. We certainly are too broke to do it now.
Dan
Yes I think the shaft on some PTO's are shorter or longer depending on type, especially when dealing with the older tractors. I could be wrong on that since I have never done more than hook up to the "accessories" left for me. Now I am interested though so I will ask this afternoon.
Stephen there are other aspects of road composition and type which come into play. While the subject maybe a bit off topic I believe it will be part of the whole eventually. Concrete is lasting but the real killer of concrete roads isn't damage directly to the material like potholes but damage along the seams by organic growth. Eventually asphalt roads may remain passable longer than concrete once the huge slabs are splintered and pushed up. But who knows.
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