The Western political establishment still seems to believe in a sort of reverse "Exceptionalism". The Arab world CAN NEVER operate in a democracy. They will ALWAYS turn to despots OR religious extremists.
DONKEY DUST!!
Much has changed in the world since 9/11/2001. While those that benefit financially, or by prestige or status from the insane security apparatus that the West, and especially the U.S., has constructed are too busy compiling worthless reports to be read by those without the capacity for abstract thought, the world has moved on.
Under no circumstance is Egypt the next Iran. Iran won't even be the next Iran for long (provided Iran does not become a nuclear power). Egypt might well roil for some time, but anybody that thinks that that society is going to tolerate a theocracy has rocks in their head. This is not 1990! That pitch from the Despots: "It is us or the Islamic extremists" is Bull Sh#! No matter how censored a society is it is damn near impossible to keep out the influence screaming out of the Web. Don't be fooled by the illiteracy pitch, either... illiterate people in every society get very little done, that rule applies to the Arab world.
"Stability", as far as the OECD is concerned, in the region has only one definition: Stability in the flow of Oil out of the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea. None of the feel-good-Lefty-weenies of the social-safety-net-variety in the Welfare/Euro Zone gave a good fart how many Egyptians, Tunisians, Yemenie's, or Saudi's had their armpits cooked with a blow torch by their respective "secret police" - the prisons in these countries would make Papillon's skin crawl - as long as the Oil kept flowing.
Yemen is days or weeks away from full scale revolt, and Algeria ain't far behind... and with approximately 25% of the Oil exports of Saudi Arabia, Algeria is a problem all its own... but in the end, it was the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ("KSA") for whom all Western (read U.S.) policy regarding the Middle East and North Africa has been promulgated; I have already covered Saudi Arabia in my previous post.
Events are overtaking most of the West's liberal-democracies, and they are scrambling to "respond". A great deal of blame and claim is going to go around, most of which is not warranted. The Arab world is not doomed to an eternity of ignorance, though they might be doomed in the short term to violence. In the final analysis the flow of Oil from what is now the KSA is going to be determined by what is in the best interests of the Arabian people, no Saudi about it.
4 comments:
I hope your right Greg.
Any information or knowledge I had of the area personally is so dated I couldn't respond either way, except to say if you are right it must be driven by the younger generation.
In that respect I kinda agree with a point Bur made in the last post.
One thing I have been wondering about is that the U.S. had a rather large contingent of troops in Egypt. I believe it was brigade sized or larger built around elements of I wanna say the 4th or 8th cav. Anyway I wonder if those troops are still there? I know they were there for years and years but I haven't heard anything about them in years either.
The mutuation from good political intentions to totalitarian politics is short and easy. Everyone loves a strong man at the helm (Putin, Hussein, take your pick).
But as Egypt has shown, there is, in such an environment, a point at which you have mass-buildup of "I'm not gonna take this anymore, no matter what," with thousands of others agreeing with the same thinking, and as a group they are able to throw out the "strongman."
As South Africa showed, it takes a long time, and people have to be patient, but it will happen.
Whether Eqypt or Iraq or anyone else can make democracy work with such corruption at its base, and no tradition of democracy, is problematic. But being an optimist, I will hope for the best for Eqypt. Not all Islamic people believe in "Islamic law," just like not all Christians believe in eye for an eye. :)
PP:
More than half the Arab world's population is under 30! My bet is their young people are pulling a Viet Nam type moment... where they just aren't buying the BS anymore.
The Web might have existed on 9/11.... but boy has its influence grown, and it has changed all societies forever.
Jerusalem Post “Muslim Brotherhood: Prepare Egyptians for war with Israel'". Me think you are being naive if you think this ends without a war. That is what the radical Muslims want. The funny thing about the article is the pretense for war is to get rid of Mubarak. What kind of nonsense is that? Anyways I think you have more trust in human nature than me.
There was a book wrote in the early 2000's called Neighbors Jan T. Gross. The basic story was that Poland just before and after German occupation. The setting was a little town (Jedwabne) with a large minority Jewish population who were mostly farmers, shop owners, some bankers, etc. (middle to upper class) The point is that this little town had none of the propaganda that the Germans were being fed, yet as soon as they were given approval or should I say cover by the Germans on July 10 the poles went about murdering their neighbors to gain the earthly possessions of Jewish community and redistribute them to the local community. The culmination was when they forced some amount like 400 Jews in a barn and burned it down. There was no order by the Germans; the townspeople just wanted their stuff. The Nazi’s were only too happy to let the dopes in Poland perform this for them. The thing that really stirs the drink is the Nazi’s had the same plans for the poles as they did for the Jews. I only read excerpts for a sociology class so don't remember all the details, I need to read the whole book.
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