Today's disappointing non-farm payroll data is an excellent test of my "no-spare-capacity" theory, and of the recent rise in energy prices to their near term resistance point.
Please keep in mind that my "theory" is based entirely on the price action in the commodity and the fact that this is happening with inventories at multi year highs... you see, I have started to see those inventories as the first wave of hoarding - and that is a very, very serious accusation on my part. Please keep in mind that I reserve the right to change my mind on a dime, I don't stand on ceremony... "if I am wrong I am gone"... but hoarding, IMHO, would first show up in inventories - NOT with John Q. Public showing up at gas stations, filling his containers and hiding them at home.... but we shall have to wait and see.
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11 comments:
Jeffers,
How could we bust the oil cartels? I mean by we the government? Is there a way at least in the short term? I know long term price is going up, but maybe for a couple yrs. I fully expect it to happen if there is a way. Plutacrats like to be reelected!!!
Dex:
If my assertion proves correct there IS NO CARTEL left.
The only power now left to the cartel is to withhold oil by decreasing production... they cannot increase production.
If that is the case, at these high prices, THEIR bureaucrats and plutocrats will want to sell as much as possible.
We will have to wait and see. If Oil is $100 this winter, we will have our answer.
Is it just me or do you guys love all of the info coming from those dumps. We are a open society and I feel like we are acting like the SS about this whole thing. People calling for assasinations, prison, Etc. Good for him for giving out the info. He is not a U.S. citizens how can we charge him with treason? He never came on shore. No republic can stand when the sheeple are blind to the truth. Now if we could just get someone to hack the fed! haha. Maybe we could find where that other 850 billion went. Ron Paul is right they are backing the whole damn world now. Industrial companies, U.S. banks, Foreign banks, insurance companies, etc.
Good call, i needed to get out of the box for a second to see it.
Dex:
It is NOT just you... what is the purpose of all of this data being secret? Nothing righteous you can be sure.
And of course the SS types will have their excuses as to why it was necessary... thanks, but the people should be the judge of that, me thinks.
As for all of the not wits calling for assassinations and prison... they merely give away their true NAZI nature.
DEx, back to Oil... I have taken a position... that does not mean that I will be proved correct... I merely lay out my reasoning, bought my tickets, and took my chances... if any of you folks take exception to my thinking, well, I am all ears.
I am with you, those oil markets can turn with a vengence though.
Re: "Busting the Cartels"
I agree with Greg; the post-2005 pattern has been one of demand having to accommodate constrained supplies, and as I have said several times, I think that the US is well on its way to becoming "free" of our dependence on foreign sources of oil.
re: Westexas
what did you mean by 'free'? That only implies the gas shales and nuke plants 'Plan B'. But I think you were speaking tongue in cheek that reality will impose itself.
Both Westexas and I have have been saying that we don't have to worry about our foreign oil dependence... that situation is going to solve itself without any work on our part... we just won't like the way it gets solved.... oil imports are going to cease - with the exception of Canada - in a decade (or 2 at most).
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