Friday, June 11, 2010

BP WILL SURVIVE

My bet is that BP will survive. The company is just too important to the UK pension system, and is fairly important to various state pension systems here in the U.S.

This has been my position, but it is nice to see that others are recognizing the effects of demonizing a multi-national company of BP prominence. What's to stop another blow out in an Exxon or Chevron or Conoco well? Want to put them out of business, too?

Really? 90% of the world's Oil reserves are held by state owned Oil companies... Saudi Aramco et al. Look before you leap.

This is not recommendation to buy BP' stock. I said they would probably survive... I didn't say at what price.

I like Ag commodities, Farm Land, short term treasury paper and energy equities. Still have my precious metals... but that can go either way.




9 comments:

bureaucrat said...

BP and the oil companies had no problems for 40 years with deepwater drilling until this year. They had too many people in charge of Deepwater Horizon, and so no one was in charge. They botched the drilling itself using a busted blowout preventer (which likely would have stopped any blowout and leak at the source) and commiting other freshman errors. If BP survives, it isn't because the big, bad world was against them. They were arrogant and careless in an operation with no margin for error. Now everyone has to suffer for their pound-foolish stupidity.

A Quaker in a Strange Land said...

Thanks Bur. No need to run an inquiry now.

Anonymous said...

Bur-

You are right, unforunately.

I have worked for BP as a contractor with no complaints at the time. Also, I have a bunch of their wonderful BP/Solarex solar panels- these panels are really works of art. Probably the best solar panels made.

However, in this case, it is obvious to those who know the business that a lot of bad judgements were made. The lack of proper engineering plans and the decision to pump seawater down the hole of a well with a history of severe gas kicks appear to be near the top of the list. It is difficult to control a well that is kicking badly and exhibiting reverse flow without having properly weighted drilling mud.

It is a shame as all this could probably been avoided if basic procedures had been followed- even if just common sense had been employed.

Regards, Marshall

bureaucrat said...

Thank you Marshall. Dad worked for Amoco (now BP) and we oil families hate it when we get bad PR. :)

Anonymous said...

BP will survive but the share price may continue to decline before it becomes a truly good investment. The US government does not want to destroy BP, they want the company to prosper and pay off all the damages and clean up the mess.
This was the first time they had tried to drill this deep below the ocean surface in an ultra deep water drilling way off the Continental shelf. They should have gone in on a smaller scale and prepared for the worst case scenario. They screwed up.

Bankruptcy would be the simplest solution for them, as it would consolidate all the class action lawsuits and other claims as well as legal fees, but the jurisdiction would be a problem. They are a British company, but the US would probably not allow them to declare bankruptcy in a British court. If they end up selling off some assets, the US wants to make sure we have first lein on their assets.

bureaucrat said...

Theyve been doing deepwater drilling for years. Perhaps in a backwater like Nigeria you can get away with befouling the whole country, but they knew they had no room for screwing up in U.S. waters.

This Sunday morning, the political talk shows (including McLaughlin Group) were filled with blaming Obama for his lame response (my mom felt the same way). While Obama could have been more attentive, there is nothing Obama and the military can do now to fix anything. It is time for "fly by the seat of your pants" engineering, the same engineering that stopped the oil fires in Kuwait that the Iraqis set on their way out.

Donal Lang said...

I wouldn't take too much notice of the Daily Mail - its right-wing sensationalist rag and doesn't let too many facts get in the way of a good story.

Meanwhile BP is making fortunes, even more so now the oil price is back up to $75. It could pay for the spill AND pay its dividend and not dent its profits.

That's not to say that it couldn't have a problem in the future, at a time when Peak Oil kicks in and profitability suffers, but its still paying damages from any lawsuit someone can dream up.

I have to say all the bullshit makes me laugh; where was the US govt when banks, companies, individuals and even countries have been going bust over the US sub-prime scandal? When is Obama going to pay us all? OUR environment is certainly suffering!

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