"When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."
Regular commentator "Publius" suggested I read the recent posts at the archdruidreport. I did.
I recommend the blog highly. Greer strikes me as a somewhat Left of Center Libertarian willing to question the "conventional wisdom" of his side of the isle, and I applaud him - especially as I view myself as a Right of Center Libertarian willing to question HIS side of the isle, too.
I am as disgusted with the state of affairs here in America as Greer - but I BLAME the misguided notions of the Leftist political elite. A Nation does not become an honorable society by whining about being a victim, promoting abortion, spending without saving, failing to provide for the future, refusing to accept responsibility, and promoting a culture of "government will provide".
I watch in horror as Jag-Offs like Michael Moore lie and distort history to the delight of many, just as I watch in horror as elected officials betray their claim of "fiscal restraint" and "responsible government" only to spend like Liberal Democrats. That Barak Obama effectively won the Nobel Peace prize for being able to read a f&*^&ing teleprompter says a great deal about our sorry state of affairs.
Just boil down the argument between America's Left and Right. The Left wants the right of abortion and the right to seize other people's property to right the wrongs of an unfair world. The Right does not. The rest is just NOISE. Championing these ideas of the Left does not appear to do much for the improvement of the "human condition" or the fiber of our society - irrespective of how one might like to define those terms. A society that stands for the slaughter of the innocent, the confiscation of hard work, and the promotion of living beyond its means is unlikely to be remembered in history for anything positive - if you disagree, please, by all means, point out my error.
And here comes the Oil Import Crisis.
The Oil exporting nations are placing less and less oil on to ships to be sold around the world because their own internal consumption is increasing and their internal production is not. It is just simple arithmetic, and our society is unprepared for this unhappy outcome precisely because for 40 years we have promoted a culture of "something for nothing". I always love James Howard Kuntsler's vitriol directed against Disney World and Las Vegas. A nation wishing on a star at Disney, and believing that something can be had for nothing in Vegas is halfway through a sh*t sandwich - without noticing what's for dinner. But they will.
I will be the first to admit that I missed the U.S. equity market rally since March. We all knew there would be one, but not a one of us saw the strength of the rally. I think that that event is going to lure many into peril. People are back buying U.S. equities for the worst reason imaginable - that there will be a greater fool willing to pay more. Not for earnings, or dividends, or sales growth - but because the US$ is falling, and it appears that (monetary) inflation is driving equity prices. Maybe for now, but I doubt for long. Retail has outperformed Energy in the U.S. equity market. The market seems to think we need more mall space than Oil wells. Go figure. My bet is that this is a temporary state of affairs, and you won't get any warning when the ship lists to the other side.
Oil imports into the U.S. are falling hard, and have been for nearly 3 years. To me, this is THE metric, and then there are all of the others. GM and Chrysler DIED, and Ford was knocking on heaven's door, the Airline industry is on the ropes, and housing hasn't got a prayer. This is all happening because the U.S. is MISSING nearly 3 million barrels of OIL per day that it had available to it as recently as 2006. Our response? To print money and give it away in an attempt to lift asset prices and expand debt. The world is recognizing our dilemma, and has taken it out on the US$. Eventually, the U.S. will raise rates, causing the US$ carry trade off of the table and that will likely be your last chance to reposition your savings. Or not. Maybe the US$ just continues to leak without reprieve. Either way, in 5 to 10 years (or less), dollars will likely be cheaper than match sticks. (Only a slight exaggeration.)
We are in a bad spot here. Yes, corporate interests back in the 1950's had something to do with it... but they were small change compared to the San Francisco City Hall sh*t heads now running the train set, and whose policies have doomed America - if we are LUCKY - to a very, very tough slog over the coming decades. And if we are not so lucky? A political crisis out a Steven King novel.
Way to go, San Fran! You guys fired the shot that heard 'round the world.
In the end, the Libertarians are going to win by default. Personal responsibility and enlightened self interest are going to rule the day once again, because the Oil simply will not be there to fund the Left anymore. And you thought the Left hated "Big Oil". The was the Left's propaganda machine talking. At the base of Left's political power is the money provided by the very people and industries the Left claims to despise. Oil dominates politics in EVERY country around the world. The U.S. is no exception. The only thing backing modern fiat, or paper currencies, is energy - primarily Oil.
As the energy supply declines, the value of money declines.
The political implications, permutations, and combinations are limitless.
Libertariananimal (at) gmail (d0t) com
12 comments:
In the end, Libertarians are going to win by default?
How long are you willing and able to wait?
Recall how long of a wait there was in the Soviet Union.
If there is a slow decline, the preppers, libertarians, and self-sufficient will be preyed upon by the collective. If there's a fast crash, they'll be the prey of the mob.
If they try to organize, they will be called dangerous. If they don't, they'll be easy pickings.
The future is unknown. Maybe someone will develop a cold-fusion power plant you can put in your basement that will heat your house, power your lights, and recharge your Chevy Volt.
Maybe a die-off of the type that occurs for many or most species when they research the "hockey stick" phase of exponential growth is on its way.
If one were to bet, the safe bet would be something in between.
History shows us that all is possible, from the greatest tragedy to the greatest triumph. Unfortunately, no nation is so special or wise that it can guarantee triumph
Glad you liked the Archdruid guy. He's odd. I find he doesn't really engage in alternative viewpoints, although he is very conscientious about responding to comments and not censoring anybody who isn't offensive.
He seems to be very anti-gun and self-defense on the individual level. Don't know where he stands on abortion.
Publius:
The Family unit and its extended "Clan" (not the KKK) DOMINATED the America's since its European settlement, and will do so again.
I have a farm in rural Tennessee. Believe when I tell you, no one is going to come and take ANYTHING from my neighbors. They are armed to the teeth and most have military experience.
I do respect Greer's obvious intellect, just as I respect Sharon Astyk and Granny Miller - wisdom can be found on many sides - that doesn't mean we are kindred spirits in the political realm. I support the right to bear arms, the Constitution as a strict constructionist, despise an activist judiciary, and will always side with the sanctity of life in the death penalty and abortion debates - because I firmly believe that I am not smart enough to decide correctly at all times, ergo I refuse to play G-d.
As "Coal Guy" pointed out so very poignantly, the elitists on the Left appear only too willing to play G-d.
This is not to defend many of the decisions of so called elected "Conservatives" in recent years. I do not see a shred of difference between them and the Left. I have seen the current political situation in the US described as a "2 heads one party system". I think that sums it up.
By the way, Greenspan, the man who drove us into this next depression, was and is a libertarian and follower of delusional Ayn Rand (though he looked more sanguine -- defeated is the word -- in front of Congress trying to explain what he, a libertarian, did wrong). Libertarianism sounds great until you hit the reality of life today. The people want their benefits, and no politician who wants to stay in office (all of them) will vote against any cut in govt. benefits at any level. You say we don't have the oil to continue as we have been. Fine. But we've had a remarkable ability to "muddle on thru" anything, and that's what we will continue to do, inflating the dollar or not.
Everyone missed the stock rally cause it is a phony rally ;). It was driven by money infusions by the Fed into the banks, where a lot of the money still sits but some of it got invested in stocks (where else was it going to go? Loans? To Americans? Please.) The "historicals" say every major drop in the market is followed by a surge upward (1930 for instance), but without fundamentals (and we don't have any), it is a suckers rally that is going to come back down soon.
So far the gas stations are full, even as the price of oil goes to $80 a barrel. At $80 or thereabouts, the economy starts to heave. The dollar is set to rally too. Nothing ever goes one direction for long (your words :)). Long term, however, ....
Kunstler was at my house on Thursday night for tea and conversation after he spoke at an event hosted by our sustaibility group. The Disneyland/Los Vegas line stuck with with me too. It occors to me that many ills are tied to the idea of SFN. Even pour appaling divorce rate speaks to the idea that things will be plyboy/GQ perfect. Give me a guy who loves me when I have the upchucks and country that requires me to make real sacrifice every time.
<< Believe when I tell you, no one is going to come and take ANYTHING from my neighbors >>
Believe me when I tell you they will and are today. They carry the title IRS most of the time but it could just as easily be FBI or ATF if they get resistance. Ask those at Ruby Ridge or Waco..
Any other examples, I mean other than what you read in the headlines or on daytime TV? One in a thousand incidents does not a trend make. If you don't want us Federales kicking in your door, make it at least a challenge. I watched fuel theft cases for awhile. You know how I caught the few cases of fuel theft? The dummies kept doing the same thing over and over, going to the same gas pumps and stealing the fuel the same way, over and over. Since govt. people, like me, are lazy, use some creativity, and we'll never catch you and kick down your door. :)
“The market seems to think we need more mall space than Oil wells. Go figure.”
It makes perfect sense to me; the government id driving the markets and the policy is that we should go out and double down on our credit cards. I’ll go out on a limb and estimate that it will go on, until it doesn’t.
On the left and the right I would say that they are both looking out for themselves and are in complete agreement, the divisions are just theater.
“1. There is a sharp divorce between what I have called the formal meaning, the formal aims and arguments and the real meaning, the real aims and argument (if there is, as there usually is not, any real argument). 2. The formal aims and goals are for the most part or altogether either supernatural or metaphysical-transcendental- in both cases meaningless from the point of view of real actions in the real world of space and time and history; or, if they have some empirical meaning, are impossible to achieve under the actual conditions of social life.
… The high-minded words of the formal meaning serve only to arouse passion and prejudice and sentimentality in favor of the disguised real aims.” -James Burnham.
It’s just as true now as it was in 1943.
I have been saying for a several months no that a period of rapid elite turnover is inevitable; the clowns will all be brought low by their folly if we are lucky; if not, to quote John Kennedy “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” Which way it goes remains to be seen.
Hi Kathy:
All "grown ups" know that there is no such thing as something for nothing. Only the childish and the childlike believe in SFN. Smoke? You get cancer. Have sex? Get pregnant. Drink alcohol? Gamble? Whatever it is, as the man said "by 50 everyone has the face they deserve".
We all live with the circumstances of our birth and the consequences of our decisions. Cheap oil made that seem an antiquated notion.... but here we are, at the end of cheap oil.
An unresolved experiment underwritten by fossil fuel.
Greg,
You said in an older post that Right and Left are dead, and the new axis will be between Libertarianism and Fascism. If you define fascism as the unholy alliance of business elite and government elite to the detriment of the populace, we are in trouble. The Democrats and making the Neo-Cons look like Libertarians. And they are not! But, as an example, that New Green Company, GE, contributed over $100,000,000 to Democrat candidates last election cycle, then got TARP money as if it were a bank, though it is not a bank, and is earmarked to run the Cap and Tax market. GE is a key contributor to the Cap and Tax legislation. What is it about companies that start with the letter G? GE, GM, GS???
The outcome of all this could be very brutal and oppressive. I can't tell the Democrats from the Republicans anymore either. Neither is tending toward Libertarianism.
Also, I'm still hanging in equities, but I'm watching like a hawk. Things that can't last forever don't.
Regards,
Coal Guy
Also, my company has been through a merger, and has reorganized its 401(k) plan. They are still pumping out the same risk/reward, 8% growth crap like the last 20 years have never happened. Talk about FOS! Who can be trusted?
Regards,
Coal Guy
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