Friday, March 12, 2010
Its 2015 - 2019
I thank the commenters from my previous post, especially those that could manage to stay on topic and within the parameters of the given scenario.
Let's move the time scale forward.
Oil imports have fallen to 5 million bpd at the beginning of 2015. But time does not stop there, and that isn't that far away... Oil imports continue their decline, though the rate of decline on a percentage basis slow so that by the end of 2019 oil imports are down to 1.5 million bpd, the vast majority coming from Canada's Tar Sands.
Peak to trough, the U.S. has lost 55% or so of its liquid petroleum supplies over a period of 14 years. Personal "Car Consumption" - gasoline, tires, repairs, insurance... is down 80% to 85% in this scenario. Heating Oil supplies are down 45%, while jet fuel supplies are down 80%, and over the road diesel for trucks is down 65% (triage has occurred in distillate fuels). We have invented a 100mpg diesel motorcycle and a 150mpg one seat car, but still have not figured out how to use it move large and bulky goods like food, clothing (cotton, wool), commodities (tomatoes, apples, and oranges) from the field to the rail and then from the rail to retail distribution... but at least you can drive these vehicles back and forth to the mall... will there be anything in the mall to buy absent truck delivery? (Driving around in circles does nor do much for the economy, but moving essential goods and services by truck and rail does.)
Bunker fuel, now supplying 8% of the energy for power plant electrical generation is down 50%.
How much has natural Natural Gas production increased/decreased? Is it sufficient to cover the loss of heating oil and bunker oil? How much Nuclear power electrical generating capacity has been built? Is there sufficient capacity increases in these 2 to support economic growth? If not, what are the economic consequences of the decline in imported Oil over the 2015 -2019 time period? What happens to the US$?
What happens to the population now living in the American industrial belt? Did they find jobs? What about the financial services worker in the Northeast? Has unemployment benefits been extended for 10 years? If not, what are these folks doing? If so, how did the international bond market react? What percentage of the population is receiving food assistance, healthcare, shelter or other service from the various governments? Again, how does the international bond market feel about that (they fund every thing we do)? Has the U.S. defaulted on its debt? Has the U.S. engaged in full scale monetization? If either of the previous has occurred how will essential goods and services be delivered absent energy and money?
How are children transported to school? What about ambulance and emergency services? Police patrols? (motorcycles and bicycles might be decent substitutes for patrol cars, but for ambulances and school buses they seem to come up short).
How are pensions funded? How are criminals punished? How is healthcare administered?
What are the environmental impacts? Is there a single tree left standing in places short of heat and or cooking fuel? Has the U.S. tried to make up for declining electrical generation by increasing coal consumption?
More questions soon. Clearly the solution for everything will not be golf carts and mopeds. I am still looking for more intelligent idea flow; comments remaining on topic will be greatly appreciated.
Posted by The Short Story Man at 4:40 AM