Sunday, January 20, 2008

“They’re here!’ – Poltergeist

The ghost of 1973 is here, and it is here to haunt the U.S. for a long, long, LONG, long, long time to come.

In my last post I covered U.S. population increase of about 1% per year. Since total oil supplies to the United States PEAKED in 2005 at 20,802,000 barrels per day (“bpd”) and the 2005 mid year population for the U.S. was 295,895,897 (U.S. Census Bureau data), each and every American consumed 7% of a barrel (.07) of oil per day during that year.

For the 10 months data available for 2007 U.S. mid year population was 301,621,157, and this increase population had less oil, 20,683,000 bpd available to consume – or 6.86% of a barrel of oil.

The average 2007 American had 2.4% LESS OIL available to consume than the average 2005 American. Natural Gas use and availability fell during this period, too (though this is more closely tied to wheather than oil is). Total coal availability BY VOLUME was up roughly .5% in 2007 from 2005, though it is likely that total production of coal BTU's fell as U.S. supplies are declining in BTU content.

What does it mean? That the average American lifestyle will decline until/unless this trend reverses. No matter what fiscal or monetary stimulus our government attempts. Either population falls, or per capita oil supplies increase… or our consumptive lifestyle declines.

Argue what you will as to whether this is good or bad, a blessing or a curse, for our humanity, etc…. It is without debate that the political, economic, and social impacts of this phenomenon will be felt in increasing measure over the next several years.

My bet is that the U.S. dollar’s decline versus commodities will likely be BREATH TAKING.

Yours for a better world, one way or another.

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

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