n case you passed over this article today in the WSJ: "OPEC Says Market Woes Cloud Output View", OPEC just told you that they cannot increase oil production. Here is the lead to the story:

Dubai, United Arab Emirates – “Damping expectations that it will pump more crude to ease high prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said uncertainties over world economic growth were clouding the outlook for oil demand.” The Wall Street Journal August 14, 2007

OPEC went on to say that they expect demand for their oil to be DOWN next year by 239,000 bpd compared to forecast demand in 2007 (which they have not met), and that the sub-prime problems in the U.S., Blah, Blah, Blah, etc… Prices are over $73 per barrel, U.S. commercial inventories are down about 5% in the past 3 weeks, OECD total inventories as measured in days of supply is nothing short of ALARMING - but we don’t need more oil production because of the sub-prime issues! This would be hilarious if it wasn’t so serious.

I wanted to ask (to whom?) if there was any chance that the decline in world wide oil supplies contributed to the real estate declines and subsequent mortgage defaults… you know, who came first -the chicken or the egg - but at this point I think the subject quite moot.

I have never said this in my blog before, but there is only one conclusion that I can draw from the past 2 years of production data, price signals, and OPEC claiming that we do not need more oil, and it is this: Peak Oil is here.

Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com