Thursday, May 10, 2007

February EIA data

The world's oil production numbers for February 2007, are up on the EIA's web site (
Crude and condensate production numbers continue to point to a peak in production of Q2, 2005. We have 21 months of data showing a slight decline in production, while reports from major oil fields of production declines continue. 2005 average production of C&C was 73,687 bpd, 2006 was 73,387 bpd, and the first 2 months of 2007 73,078. During this 21 month period we consumer about 53 BILLION barrels of oil, about twice the known reserves of the United States.

There are 2 primary organizations advocating that peak oil is at least a decade away - Cambridge Energy Research Assoc. and the U.S. Geological Survey. Their prognostications on natural gas supplies and oil prices in recent years would have closed a for-profit investment house down. I would suggest that the only reason these organizations still exist is that their respective patrons are pleased with their reports, irrespective of their accuracy. In a word - Propaganda.

I think that we are at the point where it is worthwhile to spend more time in contemplation of the consequences of Peak Oil Production, rather than expending any more energy as to its date of arrival, which may in fact lie in our rearview mirror.

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