“Twenty in Ten”

The President’s State of the Union speech is history. As its centerpiece, the President chose to “challenge America” into using 20 % less gasoline (and jet fuel, diesel, kerosene, electricity) by 2017. By the way, the decline in availability will not stop in 2017. Challenge or no, we will be using less gasoline, like it or not, simply because it will not be there to use.

Can this be seen as anything other than a complete admission of the U.S Federal Government that the peak in world oil production, “Peak Oil” if you will, is either upon us, or fast approaching? There is no other likely explanation.

If the peak in production proves to be anywhere in 2007 or earlier (as of this moment crude and condensate’s 2005 production numbers were greater than 2006, data through October, 2006) the decline in the availability of liquid petroleum products in 2017 might be somewhat greater than the 20% the President speaks of. Let me remind the reader - U.S. population growth is forecast at roughly 1% per year over the next 13 years. (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/). It then follows that the decline in fuel availability on a per capita basis would exceed 30%.

The 20% (and it could be worse) decline in total gasoline usage is NOT a goal. Once the “Peak” is reached, the decline will be a foregone conclusion. No amount of political debate is going to change the path of hurricanes, the destruction of earthquakes, or the realities of geology. The President is merely putting the best face on a rather sobering situation.

For the moment, let us forget discussions of the PRICE of oil. What does the U.S. economy look like with 10 %, 20%, 30% less Oil and Natural GAS (“NG”) available for usage? Walk outside your office: What would your metro area look like with 20% less energy? Less total miles will be driven, certainly. Smaller homes? Seems reasonable. Additional road building? Not likely. Real Estate development deeper and further into the countryside? Suicide. The effects on the economy, government agencies, and agriculture are nothing short of profound. If you think your water and electricity bills are high now… did I mention rationing of these services?

The sad fact is the Federal Government still cannot come to grips with the reality that business as usual is no longer possible. Rather than take the bold initiatives that might soften the eventual blow, it appears our government would rather break out the band-aid, toothpicks, and glue kit – trying to keep those commuters humming at all costs. Actually, this is quite understandable. The U.S. $ is in for some pretty tough times, and any American administration, irrespective of party, is going to do everything in its power to push the day of reckoning off onto some future administration. “Not on my watch” does nothing for the American people.

Our system was built on the false premises that hydrocarbon fuels would always be available to us in steadily increasing amounts, and that the effects of the emissions form its combustion were non existent. As these falsehoods continue to reveal themselves, unimaginable changes in the American way of life are inevitable.


Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com