The 800-Pound Gorilla in the Room


The world’s most important repositories of data concerning world energy supply, the Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) of the U.S. Department of Energy and the E.U.’s International Energy Agency (“IEA”) have been tip toeing around The 800-Pound Gorilla in the room (Peak Oil) for nearly a decade. Not any more.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook report is now out and can you believe it? On page 85 of the report: “Non-Opec conventional crude oil output peaks by the middle of the next decade, though natural gas liquids production continues to rise.”

Quite a change, from the IEA’s previous claim, that no peak was visible up to 2030. A stunning admission. When will the EIA come around? Soon. The production numbers don’t lie.

The IEA is still in a delusional state in predicting that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will be producing 14.6 million barrels of oil per day (“MBPD”) and 2.7 MBPD of Natural Gas Liquids in 2030 (p. 93), considering that Saudi Arabia has not been able to increase production substantially for years. But we must allow them time as they are a political organization – accordingly this will be an incremental process. Of course, so was the 25 years it took the U.S. to admit that CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels was causing climate change. One way or another, this won’t take that long.



Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com