Blog Has Moved

I am now blogging at:

Libertariananimal.blogspot.com

Moving

I am going to be Blogging at libertariananimal.blogspot.com for the most part. I will continue to comment on the energy situation here in the West, and in the U.S. in particular... but I am going to really pull apart the political implications of our energy conundrum, deficit, military budgets, social programs, et al... and take a hard run at my Talk Radio and documentary idea. We are at a cusp here on so many issues. I love my country and I LOVE being an American... I am not looking for votes and I am not looking for money... but I am looking for something. Soon as I figure out what that is, I will let you know.

Posts have been light of late as I have had bronchitis for the past month or so... and that hasn't helped the speaking efforts needed for a regular talk radio segment, either.  Please bear with me. I have been prescribed "gorillacylin", after the run of the mill stuff did not do the trick, and hope to be full of piss and vinegar in short order.

Greg Jeffers
Libertarian Animal

The Wisdom of the Masses

Nearly 40% of Americans believe that the American economy is in permanent decline.

That's only because the other 60% is still employed an unaware of America's energy predicament.  And there is no macro solution (IMHO). I have been writing this blog for 5 years or so, and have been noodling this since 2000, and no matter how I move the parts around I don't see any outcome where significant parts of systems that many, many people rely on for their physical and mental well being will not fail.

The pension system? Kaput. Banking? Sunk. Budgets for social services? Glug glug glug... as the water rises around them. Infrastructure? Ka-BOOM! Recreational doomers will take no solace in this, it could take a decade or 2...

I don't know the rate of change... for the people whose financial lives have already collapsed, I don't think it matters a wit - and there are millions of them.

And I don't blame our political leaders... they were set up in all of this by phenomenon beyond their control and blown this way and that by the Zeitgeist. The myriad unintended consequences of the explosion in energy use, ingenuity, population growth and innovation were just too difficult to see past. Assumptions were made, and then those that espoused the assumptions received "qualifications" from our establishment institutions further reinforcing these assumptions... and now we know, or suspect, that those assumptions are all wrong... but too late. We are here. And does not matter if "Peak Oil" is here for the world or if its 10 years away... Peak Oil is here for the U.S... and its not the "end of the world" but it does make operating within the financial economy very difficult for a large portion of the population.

How that is addressed is anybody's guess...

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This is a must read from Stuart Staniford.

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In The News

Today's Libertarian Animal Radio Show.

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Who oversees the FBI? Who says this is OK?

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Former President Jimmy Carter had this to say on the 40th anniversary of War on Drugs.

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Liberal Congressman Barney Frank and Libertarian Republican Congressman Ron Paul have introduced legislation to end Federal Marijuana Laws in order to leave it up to the states. Frank just moved up from a complete ZERO in my book. This issue belongs to the states; 16 states have already legalized "medical marijuana". What the hell do we have "states" for if they cannot make this decision?  At wouldn't it be nice to be able to vote with your feet (move to states that see it your way).

Its either Libertarianism or Fascism.

Shale Gas in the News

The economics, or lack thereof, of Shale Gas plays is making its way into the news.''

Lots of serious folks on Wall Street felt this was the case, including yours truly. But no story makes its way into the MainStream Media without being bought and paid for.... and somebody was buying a great deal of space to convince the public and our officials of something many people, like me, thought was simply not the case.

The irony is that the economics would improve, and might even make sense, if the propaganda had not been so successful... or I might be all wet. This is just a suspicion of mine; just a watered down hypothesis. After all... The fact is that there is a great deal of Nat Gas in Shale plays... but it might be an economic sink, or worse, an energy sink. If it is an energy sink, it matters little how much gas exists in these plays... if an economic sink, higher Nat Gas prices will change the things somewhat.  Either way, Shale Gas ain't wearing a red cape and leaping over tall buildings to save the day for our industrial society - even if it makes some folks rich.

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Sometimes, problems present themselves for which there are NO SOLUTIONS. Af-Stan is just one of these.

War, as it existed for centuries, has been "won" killing everybody on the other side. Is this really a viable option for liberal democracies at this time in history? I absolutely loved hearing the president call it as it is... that we are not able to pacify all of Af-stan and that it is not possible to make Af-stan a "perfect place". Its sad, its horrible, its depressing... it is what it is... the world is not a perfect place. Best thing we can do?... We The People had best work on making sure that their issues don't spread here.

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Tongue firmly in cheek:

Congrats to the Gay Community of New York! Now, you too can have the government involved in your personal relationships. A bigger Congrats to the Divorce and Family Law Bar in New York, after all the rate of divorce for childless couples is much higher than for couples with children, and gays just don't that many children... you gotta love the sound of the cash register ringing with all those future divorce filings. Just what we all needed, more congestion in our Court systems... Patience... there will be some serious unintended consequences... Just wait.

What a non-issue. Rather than getting government out of the marriage business, you knuckleheads brought them in a little deeper. People should be able to enter into what contracts they wish to... We have made family law such a cluster f*** as it is... I can't imagine anyone wanting to engage in government sponsored divorce terrorism EXCEPT for those trying to provide a stable home for children... and as I mentioned above, you folks don't have a great many children... but Congrats!

Obama's Release of Oil from the SPR

I needed to noodle the release of Oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a few days (and I have been under the weather... which tends to slow my noodling).  CNNMoney had this not too dumbed down article recently:

Four reasons are emerging for President Obama's surprise decision Thursday to release 30 million barrels of oil from the nation's strategic reserve -- economic stimulus; a looming supply shortage; a wake up call to OPEC; and a warning shot to speculators in the oil market.

I think that that line of reasoning is essentially correct... so lets take it apart one item at a time, but in reverse....

1. "A warning shot to speculators in the Oil market." Hmmmm..... This is so wrong on sooooo many levels... but OK, we live within a body politic filled with dingbats and dumbbells... true believers and complete deniers... wing nuts and fruit loops.... Here's my take:

Our command economy control freaks have undertaken an incredible effort to stimulate the economy (most of these efforts are doomed to fail or have a cost/benefit ratio f***ed up beyond recognition). Some of this attempt at command and control had some unintended consequences - just take a look at the US$ - and so the control freaks think they can micro manage aspects of their efforts to increase speculative activity that they find unappealing - even if there is only (and barely) circumstantial evidence that the original efforts to increase risk appetite were the driver behind Oil prices - by driving out speculators??  After all, energy was one of the worst performing sectors in the commodity markets... WhoTF is advising these people? Commodity trading is a Zero Sum Game. For every buyer there is an equal and opposite seller. The market price will ALWAYS get to equilibrium eventually via the supply/demand price discovery between producers and consumers. Reducing the number of trades in between Exxon and Mrs. Smith will absolutely, positively not change the AVERAGE outcome of price... it WILL, however, increase the volatility in the market price... which might have the unintended consequence of reducing risk taking at the Exploration and Production level.

Politically, these knuckleheads have been able to label "speculators" as the evil doers... so this might appeal to the non-thinking viewers of the likes of Oprah and Nancy Grace.

2. "A wake up call to OPEC". ROFL!!! OPEC is keenly aware of their precarious position - there ain't a damn thing they can do about it. IF, and its a BIG IF, OPEC has ANY spare capacity at the moment it almost assuredly is in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and KSA has already said they are going to increase production... my bet is that that was just propaganda... and we will know the truth soon enough.

I am quite sure that a "Wake up call to OPEC" was not part of the administrations thinking... or at least I hope not. While the ruling OPEC's elite might benefit from selling the West and the BRIC's their oil as fast as they possibly can... under NO CIRCUMSTANCE is this in the interests of the PEOPLE living in the OPEC countries. The West's ongoing War with Islam has been the predictable result, and the Arab Spring is just the latest chapter in this ongoing saga.

3. "A looming supply shortage". We need a definition for "shortage". There will be no shortage of $150, or $200, or $300 per barrel Oil... and no $100 per barrel Oil to be found. There will be no "shortages" unless governments attempt to ration by inconvenience.  If "rationing" occurs by price, the market will handle everything... now you might not like that; you might have to drive fewer miles and in a smaller car and live in a smaller dwelling and grow your own food and share bath water... amongst all manner of other adjustments. But you will adjust. The problem for the Federal, State and local governments is that this will simply destroy their budgets. The good news is that the "smaller government" folks are going to win by default without having to throw a single punch.

4. "Economic Stimulus". This is just too silly to even address. The amount of Oil in the SPR might, MIGHT, get these folks through the 2012 elections... and then what? Is our economy "stronger" by destroying contingency funds? "I fart in the general direction" of this one.

In the final analysis, this is just another cluster f*** coming out of the 2 Headed 1 Party (2H1P) Monster that has been eating us alive since the end of the Civil War... but the fat is gone, the muscle is gone, and the Monster is gnawing at the bone of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

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Peak Oil is unfolding pretty much on schedule. Peak Oil was never going to be an overnight kind of Tsunami thing-a-ma-jig.  Over the next 10 years the world will become a very, very different place... and over the next human lifetime things will be every bit as interesting as say, the 75 years from 1925 to 2000. The slow grind of Peak Oil simply will not enjoy a rate of change that will satisfy the recreational doomer. For thinking people, not to worry. Stick around. The end of growth and then outright contraction in Oil supply is going to put a rocket in the pocket of the economic/political environment. 

"Forget the Alamo. Remember Vincent Hodgkiss"

I barely knew Vincent Hodgkiss. The fact that I knew him at all was one of the vagaries of life. The 3rd anniversary of his murder at the hands of the Pembroke Pines police, and the fact that all of people in on the murder were "cleared", has sent me into action.

I am producing a documentary about this killing, and will be airing it out on my blogtalkradio show, The Libertarian Animal.

I spent yesterday and today trying to speak by phone with the Mayor, Frank Ortis; the Chief of Police, Dan Giustino; and, the Administrative Law Judge for Florida's Broward County The Honorable Sharon Zeller. The Judge's administrative assistant has been playing telephone tag with me, but the Chief and the Mayor have yet to call me back.

I hope they will open their doors and answer some questions... I can assure them that I will be showing up, and soon, with a camera crew in tow.

I will be putting up a link shortly to my radio webcast on what I have come to find in the Hodgkiss Killing.