Tuesday, April 7, 2009

OMG! A Libertarian in San Francisco?

You gotta read this.  Great stuff.

Crazy thing is, it is from the San Francisco Chronicle.  A liberal newspaper from America's most liberal city.  It opens with a throw away line to their liberal readership... but then it goes on to criticize Obama for carrying out the exact same policies as GWB.

by Sean Olender
President Obama must stop the bailouts and start the prosecutions. It's time to focus on anti-poverty programs to protect the growing unemployed from hunger and homelessness. Stealth payments to billionaire bondholders must cease immediately.

Since the mid-1970s, average Americans' wages have stayed flat when adjusted for inflation. Productivity rose, profits rose, but not wages. To compensate for stagnant wages and the desire to consume more each year, Americans worked more, retired later, spouses went to work, and many burned savings. Then they started borrowing. Debt became America's growth industry.

The scheme collapsed because Americans' wages weren't sufficient to pay the interest on existing debts. The only way out of this is to tighten our belts and pay down debt, the opposite of what our bank-owned government is advising.


Can you believe that? That is stunningly factual and accurate.


The administration and the banks keep talking about a credit crisis, but there isn't one. Banks are lending. If you want a mortgage and can afford to pay it back, you can borrow at low rates today. You can finance a car at low rates for seven years. But most Americans don't want more debt because it is a debilitating path to poverty. The average American family already pays 14 percent of annual income in interest to banks.

To fix this fake crisis, there are fake discussions about what the government must do. The endlessly recycled plan to buy "troubled" assets isn't to get banks lending again, because they haven't stopped lending. The plan seeks for taxpayers to buy worthless assets at high prices to absorb rich investors' losses. That's it. It keeps coming back as a different plan, but with that same goal. There is no goal beyond that one goal: keep rich people from taking losses.

Obama and his economic gurus all chant, "Credit is the lifeblood of the economy," but they don't mean credit. They mean debt. Imagine the president saying, "Debt is the lifeblood of our economy. We desperately need to get more American families deeper in debt." That's what he means, and that's what these bailouts hope to do.

Does the concept in that last line sound familiar? It should, I have been pounding away at that for some time - that a Liberal, Democrat President would extol his constituents to go further into debt.

In a Sept. 14 article in this newspaper, I noted that banks push senators, with the blessing of the administration, to introduce bills that are bailouts, but disguised to appear not to be bailouts. The goal is to accomplish the desired result without risking your bought-and-paid-for representative.

Imagine you bet $500,000 on a stock and it dropped to $20,000. If you owned Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, he'd get on TV and explain that if the government didn't buy your shares for $500,000, the economy would suffer because you couldn't invest anymore. He'd say the "free market" isn't pricing the stock "right," and we have to "help" the market with taxpayer money to make sure you get the "right" price.

Bailout psychology is destroying the economy. Banks hold off on foreclosures in the hope of refinancing borrowers into government-backed loans that will almost certainly default - at taxpayer expense. I've talked to ordinary people delinquent on credit cards who put off bankruptcy because they "heard" the president was unhappy with unfair bank practices and "help was coming soon." Millions of homeowners desperate to sell are keeping empty houses off the market waiting for a "rebound," flushing a stream of income down the toilet.


"Bailout psychology is destroying the economy"??!!! Is this really the San Fran Chronicle?

Worsening economic figures are being used to confirm that more bailouts are needed rather than that previous ones might be failing. The logic is much like medieval blood letting: The patient died because we didn't drain enough of his blood.

The promise of more bailouts also keeps everyone from doing what's necessary. Millions of houses sit empty, open to vandalism and destruction, while millions of Americans live in cars or on the street. Our tax money is given to banks and speculators to hold houses empty.


"The promise of more bailouts also keeps everyone from doing what's necessary." You mean like "free" healthcare, lifetime pensions, and other silly government promises of freebies?

On March 20, 2007, I wrote here that a mortgage bailout was coming and would cost at least $1 trillion, yet not bail out homeowners. As it turned out, the bailout did nothing to stop foreclosures from going through the roof. On Feb. 8, 2008, I wrote here that Fannie and Freddie would be taken into receivership within a year - an event that occurred Sept. 7. I argued here on Sept. 18 that most loan modifications were a fraud and "I optimistically predict that within 12 months half of these refinanced loans will result in default." On Dec. 8, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced that 53 percent of modified loans were in default.

To "fix" all these problems, the George W. Bush administration, and now the Obama administration, have chosen people (or their accomplices) who stole from the public. That's why no one has been prosecuted. Would former Treasury Secretary and Goldman Sachs chief Henry Paulson have pressured for an investigation of Goldman Sachs? Right.

As president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, current Treasury Secretary Geithner had a front-row seat during the run-up to the crisis and watched for years while pushing a "no regulation" policy. Why? At that time his friends were winning their bets and making a lot of money.

Why didn't Bush or Obama pick Brooksley Born (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair who tried to regulate credit default swaps) or Harry Markopolos (the whistle-blower in the Madoff scandal) to serve as treasury secretary or chairman of the SEC? Because Born and Markopolos are technically competent and possess integrity. Banks would tolerate neither quality in an administration official.

We have a crisis of confidence, because fraud permeates most of our banks and financial institutions. The solution is law enforcement, not handouts. On Jan. 31, 2009, Santa Barbara police held a 53-year-old homeless man on $20,000 bail for shoplifting $7.69 worth of soup and bread. Yet Bush did not move to prosecute a single executive at any of these banks, and Obama likewise doesn't want to be "vengeful" by investigating the crimes of investment bankers.

If the government feels lenient, can't it let alone families campingin a vacant lot in Sacramento, or homeless people stealing bread?

We can stop this by closing our accounts at any bank that took government money. A list is on the Treasury's Web site. Close your accounts and move them. If we do, those banks will suffer receivership or bankruptcy within a few months, and then there will be no need for bailouts. Our healthy community banks will thrive, while billionaire bondholders will have to downsize their G-5 fleets and take a haircut.

The piece is loaded with Libertarian/Free Market concepts and subtleties and is critical of Barak Obama. I have this vision of a "Jerry McGuire" moment when this guy gets fired for speaking too clearly.

Lastly, it is not so much Obama that I am critical of.  It is his supporters - the nit-wits that believed the stuff he, and they, were saying during the campaign...  pure horse s**t, but the true believers practically wrote his name across the sky.  What kind of a curmudgeon would I be if I didn't smack them around for a while?

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

Guest Post

Thde following is a "reprint" from the previous post's comments section:

"Yep, we have 48 people dead in spectacular murders. So, it's on the news today, and the anti-gun crowd has new fodder. But murder and mayhem go on every day. It's mostly minorities blowing each other's hind ends off, so no one notices. There will be more robberies and burglaries too. So, let's blame inanimate pieces of metal and ignore the roots of the problem

These spectacular events are the outcome of people cracking under the weight of their reality diverging so dramatically from the expectations that have been set and reinforced by political promises, the media and the entertainment industry. We'll probably see more of these events. Statistically, they are in the noise. The bigger problem is that our society has generated a huge underclass that contains tens of millions of men who have no responsibility. Not for careers, or wives or children or anything that satisfies the male ego and makes them feel worthwhile and important. This is an extremely dangerous and unnatural condition. It has been spawned by a social welfare system that provides cash for bad social behavior instead of opportunity for honest work in exchange for a decent living. Even for the working poor, the life you get is totally inadequate compared to "real life" on TV. Yet, we lay off government workers and increase welfare programs. Go figure. It is a time bomb waiting to explode."

Comment from long time AEC reader "Coal Guy".

Every now and then someone says something so politically incorrect and so absolutely on the money it worth repeating. This is one of those.

Of course, though I have never met "Coal Guy", my bet is he has the benefit of experience (I'd be willing to stake my life he is over 45 years old), has had some kids, and has been around the block a few times. I don't care how much horsepower you have under your cranium... you just don't know at 25 what you know at 50. Of course some people get old and wise, while and others get old and mean, and still others just get old.

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

Earnings Season

I cannot give specific trading advice in this forum. I can say that we have had one hell of a rally, earnings season is here, and the economies of the West continue to contract.

Yes, markets tend to bottom before the economy does. "Tend" is not a bl**dy guarantee. The U.S. equity market P/E is nowhere near past ratios at market bottoms. That does not mean all sectors will bottom at the same time, and that some might be close. I am not long much in the way of equities at the moment, though I am not nearly as gloomy about them as I was a couple weeks ago.

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We all know the 3 kinds of lies: Mine, yours, and statistics. Well, the government statisticians are among the best when it come deception.

Since they must come clean at some point, it seems to be that they simply understate a problem in the current month news cycles, and then use revisions for months past to bring the data into sync. I do not know the wisdom of this course of action - maybe it serves a purpose of confidence - but it does mean one cannot depend on the data in order to make decisions. This is a big problem, in my opinion, as there is no other entity which compiles the data.

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There is no better propagandist than the N.E.A. Your local P.B.A. (police) might not be too far behind, but they PALE in comparison to the MASTER (second only to religion in the false claims and exaggerated promises department) - the National Education Association.

You can't get through a newspaper article it seems without some reference to teachers pay and how they have the most important job in America Blah, Blah, Blah... (BS! PARENTING is the most important job.) Don't pity the poor teachers. Nobody held a gun to their head, and they have more time off than anybody I know. The sad fact is that the Teacher's lobby, the NEA, has held education BACK in America AND extorted one hell of a pension deal in the process.

A pension deal that WILL absolutely, positively be defaulted upon. BUT, not until attempts by our local and state governments to continue this &%^!! mess lead to tax revolts and foreclosures for PROPERTY TAXES. Think about that... putting people OUT OF THEIR HOMES in an attempt to keep the NEA, PBA, etc... happy by continuing an outrageously stupid system of public employee pensions.

AGHAGHGAHGHAGHHH!!!!

I get peptic just thinking and writing about it.

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

Sunday, April 5, 2009

The Autos and Housing

If you have been reading my stuff for a while, you know that I have stated time and again:  we (the U.S. and the world) do not need a SINGLE NEW CAR ever again - that the inventory we have is sufficient to finish off ALL of the remaining oil in the world.  And then some.

Today, I was reading Tom Whipple's stuff, as I do every week.  Tom is a retired CIA analyst.  He should have worked on Wall Street - we might have been better informed if he had.  Alas, it was not to be.

But I digress...


The U.S. already has some 250 million 2-axle motor vehicles (cars, light trucks, vans) running around and sitting in traffic jams (and only 200 million licensed drivers). With some tender care and adequate spare parts, this inventory easily could be useful for another 20 or 30 years considering how much less they are going to be driven once gas prices go up. Even the most optimistic do not see how there will be much oil around for powering private cars 25 years from now.

When one considers that we already have in operation more than enough cars and trucks with low mileage internal combustion engines to last us through the rest of the oil age, the only logical thing to do is to stop making more. That's right --- stop building and selling anything that consumes liquid fuels at anywhere near the rate consumed by our current fleet of vehicles.
See... the CIA knows Autos (and everything else  that depends on cheap and plentiful gasoline and diesel - including housing) are doomed.  The CIA reports to the POTUS.  The POTUS at this moment is Barak Obama.  Mr. Obama is, by all accounts, as sharp as a TACK... 

But I digress...

Chrysler is going to be liquidated.  G.M. is going to change its name to General Motorcycle and Moped (credit the Mad Scientist with that one).  Ford will survive as a manufacturer of heavy duty work vehicles.  

And you, my friend, are going to have a new title.  

PEDESTRIAN.

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We met a delightful family from Mexico this week at the farmer's co-op.  I was putting up a sign for a part time farm hand when a young man speaking broken English approached me, and together with my broken Spanish, I solved my problem by hiring his small construction outfit to help with repair work around my place as well as feeding my animals when we are in Florida.  

He invited me to his home, a 5 acre farm which turned out to be the epitome of self-sufficient.  Upon arriving we were treated to Cabritto (Roasted Goat) from his herd.  My wife declined but I fell to with gusto.  Burning hot salsa, fresh tortias, and incredibly seasoned goat flesh with coffee strong enough to clean New York City taxi bumpers under my belt and we were ready to take in the spread.  

Not a square inch was wasted.  Corn grew in 2 acres as well as every nook and cranny.  A 1/4 acre vegetable garden.  Fruit trees rather than decorative bushes surrounded the house.  The remaining area held their goats, sheep, pigs, and chickens.  The farm provided all of the family's milk, eggs, meat, and most of their fruit and vegetables.  

But here comes the good part.

The "family" was my new friend's wife and 3 kids, his brother and his new wife, 2 cousins and their new wives, and his father.  12 people lived in this home that was perhaps 2,000 square feet, and by my reckoning they probably produced half of their own food.  He was planning on renting a neighbor's 10 acres to expand his farming operation.

They slaughter and butcher their animals themselves (I had always contracted out this work). He and his brother are coming over later in the week to help me put 2 goats into the freezer, and to share the family recipe for Cabritto.

These folks are from a remote place in Mexico and were raised without benefit of running water or electricity, but are not Amish about it.  They are very happy to have these services in their present home.

What an eye opener.

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com




Saturday, April 4, 2009

Recent Violence

4 police officers murdered in Oakland. 13 innocents murdered in a Federal INS building in Binghamton, NY.  Today, 3 police officers murdered in cold blood in Pittsburgh.

What the heck is going on?

Forget your politics for a moment.  Gun Rights, Gun Control...

Maybe, just maybe... we are starting to see people crack under the pressure of mean spirited policies (the U.S. has the greatest percentage of its population in prison in the history of the world): taxes, lack of opportunity, taxes, government threats of regulation, taxes, Law Enforcement parading around dressed like they are about to invade Poland, taxes... throw in 300 million guns (I own several guns, and I hunt and I fish... for a New Yorker, well, go figure) running around our society... and Viola!  Mayhem.

Maybe, just maybe, our society, led by our Federal, State, and Local GOVERNMENTS could try to be a little "kinder and gentler".  

I have spent the last couple of weeks filing this paperwork for my companies with the various states, and that tax form for the Feds, and this form and that form and this and that.... I am ready to shoot myself...

My heart goes out to the families of the victims, and the to the victims themselves.  

Maybe the answer is NOT another government crackdown. 

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

Friday, April 3, 2009

(In)Justice Department

Quote of the day:

“What’s happened over the last 10 years is that prosecutors have seemed to have forgotten that their main job is to see that justice is done and instead focused on winning the case at any cost,” said Michael Madigan, a former prosecutor and Washington criminal lawyer who represented one of the former KPMG partners. (Read more about the railroading of U.S. Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens)
Mr. Madigan needs to insert another 0, as in 100 years.

Our legal system has run amok. And the jury system, being "judged by our peers", is failing horribly to protect us. The conviction rate in the Federal system is over 95%! Considering how much the prosecutors over indict defendants, that is indeed a remarkable number.

I am guilty of actually having read the U.S. Constitution. It is a beautiful document - and completely inadequate in protecting citizens from prosecutorial over-reaching. The Framers simply could not contemplate the vast resources commanded by our "Justice" system versus how little in the way of resources that defendants have to defend themselves, not to mention the apparent inability of jurors raised on American Idol and People Magazine, hardly the citizen/farmer/legislator of the Framer's era, to think in abstract terms.

The ONLY WAY to fix this, to right this listing ship, is to CUT THE BUDGETS of these politically motivated and ambitious (Mike Nifong of the Duke "Rape" case, anyone?) prosecutors. Most folks don't know it, but the most famous Prosecutor of the past 30 years, Ruddy Giulliani, had EVERY SINGLE ONE of his convictions at trial for Wall Street white collar "crime" OVERTURNED on appeal.

How could this be? Simple. First, he indicted innocent people and our Grand Jury system failed miserably to protect these folks from indictment in the first place, and; the juries were only too happy to convict rich white guys of ANYTHING. After all, they are ALL criminals, right?

Hell of an impartial jury of your peers...

There was a period in the late 1970's and early 1980's when DNA was not available BUT the physical evidence was saved. 20 years later, nearly 1/3 of the defendants convicted of rape that filed an appeal based on the newly available DNA evidence had their convictions overturned based on the fact that their DNA did not match the "physical evidence" on the victim or at the scene. Most were convicted on eye witness testimony of the victim. Anybody out there think that maybe, just maybe, the police and prosecutors manipulated the victim and then destroyed the defendant's life? Of course, the prosecutors are immune from prosecution or civil liability for their wrong doing.

Some good things are going to come about with the restraints on government budgets - I hope. We cannot continue to fund silly social programs and mean spirited "justice".

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com





Thursday, April 2, 2009

Data

Is the Glass half full or half empty?

Have I overstayed my welcome in the Bear camp?

Yes, unemployment is a lagging indicator, but new claims for unemployment are a leading indicator. Is the contraction over in manufacturing? Or was this month's data the inevitable bump? The stock market seems to be telling us that things are improving... or is it that inflation has finally been reigited?

The data for Oil inventories still says the world is contracting, and that the world is sending more of its oversupplied Oil to the U.S., which is still oversupplied at the moment... yet oil has caught a bid...

At times like this a trader has 2 options: Go with the trend... or stay out of the game. If you go with the trend, have no patience for positions that go against you.

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One of my personal "indicators" is finally getting some press:

"Number of Americans receiving food assistance at all time record"

Nah... it will never make the economic indicators radar screen in Washington or Wall Street, but it should.

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Here is a prime example of a social program run awry.

Disability is easily one of the most abused programs in America. We all know that more than half of these claimants are just life's failures: N'er do wells, drunks, addicts, etc... among other things. Yes there are real people that are disabled. Then again, one of the top producing brokers on Wall Street is paralyzed from the chest down - somehow he makes it into work and makes 7 figures every year... The truth is most of these claimants have lost their enthusiasm for work and life, and now they want you to provide for them.

Hell of a program!

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The market is burying the shorts alive. Glad I am not short.

Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com