The Straight of Hormuz

Iran is threatening to close the Straight of Hormuz.

(I've mentioned this threat in previous posts...)

While I doubt that Iran has the ability to take on the U.S. Navy and effect a closure of the Straight for any length of time... you never know. The unintended consequences and unforeseen outcomes of a full fledged conflict with Iran, for that is what would come to pass at that point, are many and varied.

What would happen in the U.S. if Iran were successful in halting Oil shipments out of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran itself? Oil is a fungible commodity... it would matter little if most of the ME Oil ends up in Europe and Asia. The U.S. imports roughly 23% of the world's exported Oil. Oil exports would be cut by 25% or so... America would feel most or all of that cut... so let's say a little over 2 million barrels per day would come out of American supplies in short order (this is product and crude).

Of course the price of Oil, and hence gasoline, would be a moon shot... but the real problem would be availability - and physics. Without that Oil, a great deal less "work" would take place... with cascading effects across the economy, government, and society.

Police would have less gasoline to respond to 911 calls. Commuters would have less gas to commute. Markets would tumble. And yet, if temporary, such a short term crisis might be very, very helpful in prodding Americans, and our government, into taking action. After all, Oil imports, as we currently define them, will be gone in far less than a human lifetime... a closure in the Straight of Hormuz might give us some idea of what our future might be like and also give us some incentive, and our political leaders some cover, to get on with planning for life after Oil.

Because life will be very different. Yes, we will still have cars... having a car won't be the issue.... the issue will be the number of miles the average American travels by car, and that number is going to plummet (Here's a graph of Vehicle Miles Traveled ("VMT")... perhaps this process is underway right now). Think about that for a moment. In a nation of car commuting, what happens to the need for office and retail work space? It goes down like a rock in a pond, and with it the value of those properties (many of which are owned by the various pension funds... and those funds are already terribly underfunded) and the value of the mortgages held on these properties by the banks...

I could go on and on and on... but you get the idea. American's think nothing of getting in their car and burning $5 in gasoline in order to travel to purchase $1.50 worth of eggs. That will come to a screeching (no pun intended) halt. Now think about the impact on the auto industry... without that kind of wasteful driving how are we going to wear-out our cars so that we are forced to buy new ones? At some point we are going to figure out that we don't need a single additional car in order to burn all of the Oil we are ever going to have.... And what of the impact on retailers of the decline of traffic into their stores and the profits from impulse buying that will no longer be taking place due to an absence of impulse buyers?

And doesn't all of this contract the credit system (deflation of credit)? The Left bemoans how unfair wealth distribution is in the U.S. In this scenario that problem would evaporate... along with all of the tax revenues that currently support all of their favorite Social Programs.

Ah, but its a beautiful day. I have to go feed my livestock and milk the cow and head over to the academy to teach a grappling class. Enjoy your day!

What We Have Become

Yet another plank in the diseased ship of state of the Left.

Young men of the gang-banger mentality have a new form of entertainment: Walking up to defenseless persons and punching and kicking them in the head until they suffer a concussion and collapse to the ground... and just what demographic is engaging in this repulsive behavior? It ain't farm kids from Iowa or suburban kids from New England.

Oh, the Right has its share of blame here, too... the War on Drugs has created a demographic of unemployable men that have abandoned their families to a life of crime... their offspring's only role model were thugs...

The Left and Right battle reminds of the a National Geographic photo taken of 2 bull seals on a beach so absorbed in their own fight that neither noticed the Orca coming out of the water to kill them.

Willie Sutton famously quiped when asked why he robbed banks - "cause that's where the money is". Really want to fix America's social ills? You gotta go where that illness is greatest. But it ain't gonna happen... the Left needs these votes and couldn't care less about The People.

------------------------------------------

"Correlation DOES NOT imply Causation"

Remember that one?

Clearly the "professor" of "Women's Studies" quoted in this article was MIA for her Statistics and Finite Mathematics classes...

In the first five years after the adoption of no-fault divorce, divorce rates did indeed rise, but the domestic violence rates fell by about 20 to 30 percent, and wives' suicide rate fell by 8 to 13 percent. So we know that divorce actually provides a safety valve. - Stephanie Coontz, professor of history and women's studies, The Evergreen State College

Sounds so right... the way all propaganda should and often does.

Dear Ms. Coontz: You provide only your putative "benefits" of the issue... what of the costs? Children from broken homes suffer from poverty and mental illness in vastly great numbers than the offspring of intact families. Does that matter in your calculation? I could beat you to death with this, but let's move on... Even if I take your data at face value (and I don't... when one is a "hammer" EVERYTHING looks like a "nail"... and if a "professor" of Women's Studies" cannot be defined as a "hammer"... who can?) as a college "professor" (SNICKER) you SHOULD know (and either a: you do know better and are simply engaging in outright propaganda, or b: you DON'T know... in which case you are merely another incompetent. Either way, you are a disgrace to humanity and are harming the women lured into your orbit of hate) that "correlation does not imply causation".

For example... anti-depressant use in middle aged women has gone from essentially ZERO to 24% of that population. Any chance that that had something to do with the decrease in suicide (you f***ing jerk)?

And domestic violence? Police response to a 911 call was non-existent in the 1930's and was few and far between in the 1970's... any chance that increased Law Enforcement had something to do with the decline in Domestic Violence (and domestic violence cuts both ways I might add... and women are far more likely to use a weapon). I am sure in your mind the fact that 24% of women are medicated in order to cope is entirely the fault of rampant paternalism and misogyny in our society... but is there any chance that an unintended consequence of rising divorce rates and the refusal of 50% of the population to marry in the first place is harming the mental health of women? Do you have any better data to support that contention then you do on your previously mentioned assertions? Of course not. You are in the indoctrination business, not the education business.

-------------------------------------------

Christmas Shop(lift)ing and Competitive Materialism (I got that from my Physician in Miami... he was using that term to define the miasmic social environment in the Nouveau Riche cesspool of my adopted hometown Boca Raton).

Got that? Here we are, a nation of obese, petty thieves, judging the fitness of our political leaders by their sexual histories...

We are a nation so poisoned by the Media, Hollywood, "Women's Sudies'" "Professors", et al that we steal $435 per family (and that's just retail theft), our "inner city" youth punch defenseless elderly into unconsciousness, and our college professors engage in rank propaganda and disinformation.

What a world.

The People (of Israel)

If you have been reading my stuff you know that I am a firm supporter of Israel (as in their Right to Exist) and the Israeli people... but it is much the way I feel about my own country. I love what our country's - America and Israel - have stood for but am deeply suspicious of The Powers That Be.

Too many non-Jewish Israeli supporters and the Diaspora do not know what is going on in Israel right now. Israel is becoming (really has become) a Latin American style "democracy". A dozen or so immensely wealthy and powerful families are in complete control of the government - and its policies and military. The money coming from the Diaspora, fundamentalist Christians (this group provides huge financial and political support to the Israeli government... especially when Likud is in power), and U.S. Government Foreign Aid into Israel is going to further this small group's power and control, and has not (IMHO) helped The People... in fact, given the demonstrations in Israel of the feelings in the Israeli Street I think the temptation to pick fights and engage in military operations for the purposes of distracting the surge in dissatisfaction is very, very tempting.

To say that this set of circumstances is problematic, particularly at a time when Iran is so close to becoming a Nuclear Power, cannot be said forcefully enough. Yet ANY CRITICISM of Israel's government is met with a swift and brutal counter from those controlled by The Israeli aristocracy - Witness Ron Paul's treatment in the American Media.

This is dangerous stuff with some very troubling potential unintended consequences. The flavor of anti-semitism that I smell on some of the Occupy Wall Street folks is one of these. Its threat to the unique relationship between the U.S. and Israel cannot be dealt with in the same manner as other out-breaks of anti-semitism - precisely because it is occurring in the one country that Israel needs most at her side.

To the people of Israel: The American People support you, your right to exist, and your commitment to democracy. I pray you are able to hold on to that commitment in these troubling times.

To my fellow Americans: We must support the people of our closest ally, Israel. We must not let that support be used by their 1% to enslave their 99%.

The Power of Propaganda

Wanna see the power of Media Propaganda?

Watch this. As a result of THIS?

Bizarre.

What Stock Market Multiples Say About "Growth"

Many energy watchers in the blogsphere often talk about "the end of growth". IF, and its a big IF, they are correct, you will see it first in the stock market.

The stock market prices in future growth and current cash flow/earnings (no, they are not the same thing). If there is no "growth", PE multiples will (IMHO) contract down deep into the single digits.

So it was with great interest that I saw this article today on Marketwatch.

If the end of growth is here, temporarily or permanently, you will see it in market multiple contraction.

-------------------------------------------

Read this interesting article about the end of the 9-5 workday at the office.

Without doubt this is happening... it is the conclusion as to "why" the author reaches that I must take to task.

Vehicle Miles Traveled is down... Oil imports are down in the U.S., as is total Oil consumption... Oil is primarily a transportation fuel in the U.S... what choice do people, or companies for that matter, have? Commuting is going to contract. PERIOD. As it does the value of all of that commercial office space, and the support business surrounding it (from lunch trucks to dry cleaners) is going to go down like a rock in a pound. Think banks are in bad shape now? They are positively healthy and robust compared to what they will be with a 10% contraction in transportation fuels.

-----------------------------------------------

I wish these "young farmers" good luck.

Unfortunately, for them to make a living farming at the sub-industrial level will require the price of their produce to rise substantially. I speak with local organic/family farm types fairly often at our local Farmer's Coop and at the farmer's markets in the area... and they just aren't making it. Food is CHEAP and still 1 in 7 Americans cannot afford food on their own income and require government assistance... and its far WORSE in the rural heartland, where people are taking a stab at this, with 1 in 5 on food assistance here in my rural Tennessee county. There is a vicious cycle going on here... the government subsidizes people's food budget, giving them little incentive to buy local products from people that do not and cannot accept Food Stamps... and by subsidizing people the people do not learn how to grow and preserve food, even though in our local there is an excess of land and rain. The elderly farmer up the street from me told me that when he was a young man most everyone kept hogs here... now almost no one does. Those that do send their hogs out for "processing", and by doing so pretty much eliminate the economic advantage of raising the hog in the first place (by paying $.70 per pound in processing fees instead of doing it themselves).  We slaughter several hogs each year and save a couple $thousand$ per year in doing so.

Yet the small scale farmers around here are having a hard time selling their produce and livestock. The government has removed the incentive and tradition of self-reliance from the descendants of America's frontiersmen and farmers, and in doing so left the farmers and their potential customers in poor shape.

-------------------------------------------

Anti-trade socialists should read this article.

Enough said.

-----------------------------------------


American Family Life continues to just get weirder and weirder.

-------------------------------------


More soon.

A Banker Who Just Does Not Get It

You just gotta read this.


Dear Mr. Dimon:

I don't know how to tell you this... but you are not Steve Jobs, Henry Ford, or even Michael Dell.

You are a guy born into a family of the 1%. You went to the "right" schools all of your life (and by "right", I don't mean the curriculum, which was the same in every other school... I mean you gained the exclusivity cache that the establishment reserves for its members and their issue), and you had the good fortune to be included in the club due to your unique personal, ethnic, and cultural background... if you were a Puerto Rican kid from the South Bronx I doubt you would have your current position - Harvard Business School or not. When you are born on 3rd base, its just not that far to home plate. As my friend Donal Lang quiped - "is is easy to confuse privilege with talent". You really shouldn't do that. Mr. Dimon.

You did not invent banking and you are not the founder of J.P. Morgan. You and your ilk "captured the flag" of the CEO office, and you (and your ilk) rode the inflation of the U.S. credit system to fame and glory - but please, "don't confuse brains with a bull market." You and your ilk could no more survive the contraction in that system without the support and acquiescence of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury than a trapped minor survive a mine collapse without oxygen.

You do not "run" J.P. Morgan... but you do bleed it dry. All CEO's know this truth - their corporation runs them. Without the armies of analysts and consultants (Mckinsey, Booze-Allen et al) and the legions of CPA's, Lawyers, Board Members, and support staff you wouldn't know how to get into your building. These other folks run the place in a very similar fashion to a rugby scrum... and that's OK. That's the way it is when you have 60,000 employees... but claiming credit where credit is not due is beneath you.

Not that you aren't smart, driven, hardworking, and diligent - you are. You beat the rest of the pack to that corner office... that in itself is quite an accomplishment - it is simply not worth $23 million per year. I, myself, am at least as smart as you (care to play Chess with me? Or Concentration?  I'd wipe the floor with you), and I would do it for $5 million. I know some folks that are a great deal smarter than you and I that would do it for $1 million (but not me... that's not enough compensation for me to come off the bench, quit my farm, and sit through all those meetings every day).

JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs... you folks are nothing more than branch offices of the Federal Reserve Banking System. Your size and financial power derives as much from the U.S. military enforcing US$ hegemony around the world, and the U.S. Navy protecting Oil shipping lanes, than anything else (if you doubt this, watch what happens to "banking" if a U.S. or Israeli dust up with Iran leaves the Straight of Hormuz closed for even a couple days). You and your cohorts were able to toot your horn only because of the unique environment of exponential growth in credit and natural resource supplies of the past several decades... in an environment of exponential decay in credit and natural resource supplies you and your industry will need to be rescued several times over I should imagine... so what, exactly, is so "productive" about you?

In addition to confusing brains with a bull market, you and your ilk have stacked the deck in Washington, DC, and equally as importantly (but flying under the media's radar) in the state of Delaware's State and Legislative houses, where you have written corporate law to ensure that you are NEVER challenged and that your board directors is nothing but a rubber stamp leaving you with a government sanctioned AND FINANCED monopoly. If you guys are soooo smart and sooo competent, what's up with the buying of government protection? When you come right down to it there is little difference between you and the Russian oligarchs.

This is coming from a guy that worked in the banking and securities markets most of his career, not some OWS kid in a tent pissed off because he's $200k in debt for a history degree from Brown. If I were in your position I don't think I would do things that much differently. Except I wouldn't believe my OWN bull sh#!.

I am, however, very impressed with your ability to spin the story and issue propaganda that has led some in the middle class to sympathize with you and to demonize the kids of OWS, many of whom see clearly the workings of the system before them. Unfortunately for the Middle Management Republicans they are unfamiliar with "Jeffers Media Theory" (please feel free to google).

In the final analysis it matters not. You and yours will not be able to stop the Internet from shedding the light of day on the truth of it all... I look forward to seeing how it all works out with great anticipation.

Sincerely yours,

Greg

P.S. What America NEEDS at this very moment is NOT more egomaniacal bankers... we need more small business owners and founders and people that are willing to to go to work everyday, come home to their family every night, and be good neighbors.

Rise of the Machines

"Wall Street employment is down 9%."

Boy. Now there's a yawner...

Wall Street employment might be down 9%... but compensation is down closer to 25% (and maybe 30%... and its only that high because the senior exec's ripping the government and the shareholders off... trader and broker income is off more)... and that's with all that the Fed and the U.S. Treasury did to soften this blow.

Well, speaking of blows... Europe is blowing. And this wind is going to level what is left of "Wall Street".

(And just who is "Wall Street", anyway? Lehman? Gone. Bear Stearns (my alma mater)? Gone. Goldman is staying off the the radar and out of the media... and don't even mention MF Global (ROFL!!!). Its embarrassing to watch CNBC - they have to struggle to get a dolt  capable of fogging a mirror from "Dewey-Fugam & Howe" and "Laydown and Whackett" to entertain the masses of disinterested investors....

Because there are no individual investors left. Its all machines. The volatility going on in the market is the result of infinite buy and sell programs - with the result that people just can't take it any more. I speak to CPA's regularly... first thing I ask is how their clients are doing trading the market... the answer, unsurprisingly is "not too hot". Since high frequency trading is now over 70% of the volume, and it was non-existant 10 years ago... and hedge funds are 30% (just making that number up... but I bet I am close), and they pretty much didn't exist 10 years ago, too... and trading volumes are down... it then follows that there are no individual investors left.

So... IMHO, it ain't long before New York and environs goes feral.

We are in a uniquely bad spot here.

Blowback

The CIA uses the term "Blowback" to describe the unintended consequences that result when groups or nations that have been dealt with coercively respond with violence in return.

I have no idea what the facts are in the case of the shooting of a Police Officer at Virginia Tech University yesterday... but a thought was nagging at the back of my mind...

I am continually surprised that the police officers involved in the killing of civilians are not then subjected to vendettas and revenge. Police kill people in no-knock raids, traffic stops of unarmed people ("the car was a weapon"), and other encounters... have not then been subject to violent response from the victim's family. I am astounded, frankly.

When I heard this story, well, I am interested to hear what the facts are. This is probably not the case here... but it is only a matter of time before the father/brother/son of one of these police killing victims settles the score the old fashioned way.

We Paid Big Money to get this *&^ed Up

Big Money.

The "Euro Could Explode"?? ROFL!!

This is what happens when you addict people to social programs and structures that are not compliant with the laws of mathematics. People start to actually believe that whatever condition is some kind of right.  


The solution for Europe is fairly simple... unfortunately, several more governments will have to collapse and the people humbled before we get there.

--------------------------------------

Is it War in Iran? I certainly hope not. This analysis is certainly worth considering.

From the article:

Nonetheless, at this point war looks likely. Under our political system, the side that can pay for election campaigns invariably gets what it wants. There is, simply put, no group of donors who are supporting candidates for president and Congress based on their opposition to war, while millions of organised dollars are available to those who support the neo-con agenda. Pundits used to say: As Maine goes, so goes the country. It's just as simple today: As the money goes, so goes our policy.

I am a Free Market, Capitalist/Libertarian... and even I hope to see The Powers That Be running the International money and banking system crushed before they destroy us all. Maybe the Fed saved the system to keep the world safe for future conflicts like this.

-------------------------------------------

Pearl Harbor Day came and went with little fanfare... and that's the way it is. A political disagreement worth killing hundreds of millions (WW I & II) is pretty much forgotten in a single human lifetime... and for a number of reasons... not least of which is this:

"When strange peoples meet: First they fight. Then they fornicate."

My father spent 3 1/2 years in the South Pacific during WWII fighting the Japanese. Me? I am married to a beautiful girl from JAPAN. We have 2 children. Groups that insist on walling themselves off from others - dividing the world into 2 kinds of people - will continue to provide the fuel that stokes the flames of War.

Way to go.

-----------------------------------------------

I have several "go to" guys in my universe. "The Wise Man". "The Mad Scientist". "Einstein".

I had an interesting conversation with The Wise MAN ("TWM") yesterday. He's an older fellow (If someone my age says you are "older", well, you have had a long time on this planet to observe) who has spent a lifetime with a keen eye taking in the human condition.

Says he: "Everywhere I look, I see people accommodating the new reality, and some that are doing so in fact while pretending otherwise... but it is happening. The World just got a lot bigger... and that means our individual "world" has gotten a lot smaller. And it can get a whole lot smaller. We will adjust. Life will go on. But people's expectations are being adjusted as we speak. Many will have to humbled."

I love talking to TWM.

The Anti-Chirst Was Here

Goldman Sachs the anti-Christ and a member of my most unholy trinity (along with the USDA and the Department of Homeland Security... come to think of it, I may have to expand from a trinity to some larger number) has been out of the news of late. Amazing, really. Goldman was unindicted co-cospirator Numero Uno in the European Debt Disaster.

These guys are like the anti-Johnny Appleseed... only the seeds they leave behind are cancer clusters. And boy, do they get paid well for their trouble.

Not that the EuroZone wasn't doomed from the get go... but with friend's like Goldman, who needs an enema?

It was Goldman (and OK, Lehaman/Bear/Morgan et al... but with Goldman as the Don of Dons) that helped Italy and Greece structure (read: hide) their deficit spending so that it wouldn't appear "on balance sheet"... thereby "maintaining compliance" with their Maastricht agreements (the guys from Enron went to jail for this stuff. Goldman? They got special dispensation for counter party risk... essentially getting paid BIG MONEY for taking no risk and, in reality, actually providing no risk coverage for those seeking such... but they DID go to Harvard... so they must be smart, right? Snicker...).

Not long long after, these doer's of "God's work" helped blow the U.S. financial system up with their contributions to high finance in the mortgage market as well as Washington D.C.'s regulatory and law garage sale.

We have the largest percentage of people in prison as a percentage of the population in the history of mankind... but not one guy from Goldman.

Because everybody works for Goldman. The Department of Justice, the SEC, the U.S. Senate... everybody.

I wonder if they'd hire me?

Prolly not...

Europe, Debt, and the Keynesian Jag-Offs

Merkel says fixing Europe's debt crisis will take "years".

Madame Prime Minister: It will take years??!! That's if you are lucky. If you are not, it might fix itself over a long weekend.

------------------------------------------

If you are an equity investor you really gotta ask yourself: What is it that the Bond market sees that you don't?  I spent an entire morning earlier this week looking around for short term U.S. Treasury paper without a negative yield... why do you suppose that is?

----------------------------------------------------

The U.S. economy and the American worker simply cannot afford the level of "payroll tax". The "payroll tax" is insufficient to support and maintain the solvency of the U.S. Social Programs. If you have read my older stuff, well, this is EXACTLY what I have been saying since the day I started this blog. It does not matter what you think, or feel, or wish... the numbers matter... and the facts on the ground say that these programs will be cut so deeply that they will resemble "defaults" on promises far more than cuts in benefits.

--------------------------------------------

And finally... anybody besides me realize that any "bailout" of Europe by the Fed will be at the expense of American Taxpayers?

Europe Explained by a Regular Guy

Wall Street economists just love to talk in jargon and show everybody how smart they are... consequently, most people, and most investors, tune them out and few American's really understand what the heck is going on over on the other side of the pond.

Well... it is a very similar story to America circa 2008 when our bank's collateral (mortgages) turned out to not be worth what people thought they were... only in Europe, the asset that is FUBAR is the sovereign debt of the EU members... the bonds sold by the various member country's departments of treasury.

Europe's banks are freaked out, and rightly so, about the potential for spreading defaults on those bonds... so they are in full flight, de-leveraging mode... and since they cannot (or won't) raise capital at these equity prices (some, like Bank of America are down 90%) they MUST work from the other side of the balance sheet - calling in loans and selling off collateral and seized assets.  What happens when the banks all try to sell stuff at once? The prices for that "stuff" collapses.... and if the "stuff" happens to be sovereign debt? Well, as asset/prices go down the interest rate for new debt goes UP! When you are on the razor edge, like Italy (forget Greece... they are off they edge and small potatoes, anyway) you go from "Everything's fine" to "my rectum thinks my throat's been cut!" in a matter of days... and what happens when the banks all call their loans at once? Liquidity - CASH - dry's up in the system, forcing down the prices for the stuff they are trying to sell to raise cash and deleverage in the first place... get it? The ultimate negative feedback loop.

And the response from The Powers That Be? Lend the banks more cash printed up over at the U.S. Federal Reserve... which had the effect of lowering the value of the US$ and raising asset prices.

This is a band aid over a festering, gangrenous wound. Italy's debt is such that any rise in interest rates and POOF! They won't be able to fund it any more (remember... Italy cannot print its own currency), and will simply have to default... And Japan makes Italy look like a pilgrim!

But wait! There's more! If you order now we'll throw in a U.S. pension system disaster right on time for the Presidential election! OR... an energy shock! Either way... you are gonna get something!

You see... the U.S. Fed is only to willing to do this despite the obvious draw backs because if they do not... and the markets continue crumble... it won't just be American Airline's that is defaulting on its pension obligations. So the U.S. Fed was willing to sacrifice the US$, at least a little bit, to buy the Europeans some time... with the risk that if it were to actually work the price of Oil could (though I doubt this very, very much) spike and put the kabosh on things in general.

Europe will have to shred its safety nets and generous pensions. Period. End of Report.

Coming Home (to Roost)

The world's financial system is about to conflagrate and The People need their blow by blow analysis. Therefore, I am (again). Blogging that is.

It is simply not as much fun to blog when the folks running the train set have the trains running on time... From 2005 to 2009 the action was just too good to pass up, and when it appeared that The Powers That Be had patched up the system pretty well, well... that's just not as much fun to cover.

This is different. This is NOT 2008 all over again... this is much better (worse) for blogging... I had remained an unbowed and slightly bloodied deflationist... but it appears that while the FED and the other various central banks were, in fact, able to strike fast and hard (my hat was off to Bernake, Paulson, Bush, Obama and a few other courageous members of the Establishment, hehehehehe), they are pretty much out of gas at the moment.


And not because of the price or supply of Oil! Europe is leading the way in "Keynesian End Game" (I don't know who to credit, but I like that term... may have even used it myself at some point as I love chess metaphors and analogies...)


Oh, sure... Oil prices and supplies are not helping at all, and are in fact contributing to the never ending torture that is the Western economy (because its all relative... ask some Indigenous person living in the Andes if the recession means much to them...)... but that's only because we live in this Television induced fantasy of what our life is - food comes from the grocery store, water from your tap, gasoline out  of a pump at the corner store, money comes from the ATM, financial security is bytes on a freaking screen... holy molly! Are we FOS, or what? (We, as jurors, put people in prison to be raped, murdered, and tortured... for "killing or abusing" animals... and then go home and set out rat and mouse traps and poison - I have to wonder... WWJD?!)

But I digress...

The Central Banks are in full panic mode, now... don't let them fool you... check in with me and I'll be happy to set you right...

Remember the incredible growth in China? Here's a link to the Hang Seng Index 5 year chart.

Do you see any "growth" there? Me neither.

OK. Here's a 10 year chart.  Looks to me like a market growing at a compounded 7% per year... with harrowing moves... During the best decade that China could have possibly had? What will it look like a decade from now?

For now, the risk trade could be on... use this as an opportunity to sell any long positions you have left... hide out in short term Treasuries and US$... a Bear Market is in the offing, maybe The Big One... this will create the greatest opportunity for Capitalist pigs (like me!) since March of 2009... and perhaps a shade better.

OK. That's if you have money.

No money? Not to worry... things can't get any worse for you... no point worrying about it... but if you are young enough and bold enough to have a thirst for life rather than a thirst for commiserating... Think!
The answers are fairly obvious!

In a deflationary environment you must avoid debt nearly as much as death... because debt will lead you there. Too, you must avoid property taxes like the plague. This likely means that if you are fortunate enough to have not set up shop in some high cost Blue State you'd be better off elsewhere. The life long difference between paying $1,800 in property taxes and $18,000 in property taxes (per year) is overwhelming! (Its the after tax equivalent of being able to spend winter in Costa Rica or other warm local... or working 4 days per week rather than 5...) Let the Keynesian Left eat their own cooking... its poisonous to your freedom as well as your life and health.

The West, and the U.S. in particular, is in for a rapid-rate-of-change-event. Not so rapid that its the end of the world... life will go on... but our economic arrangement will under go a tremendous shake up... it will be sooooo much easier on you to swim with the tide rather than against it. Or "Against the Wind".

Nice tune. Don't let it be your anthem.

"There will be two dates on your tombstone everyone will read them, but the only thing that matters is the little dash between them." Kevin Welch

Blog Has Moved

I am now blogging at:

Libertariananimal.blogspot.com

Moving

I am going to be Blogging at libertariananimal.blogspot.com for the most part. I will continue to comment on the energy situation here in the West, and in the U.S. in particular... but I am going to really pull apart the political implications of our energy conundrum, deficit, military budgets, social programs, et al... and take a hard run at my Talk Radio and documentary idea. We are at a cusp here on so many issues. I love my country and I LOVE being an American... I am not looking for votes and I am not looking for money... but I am looking for something. Soon as I figure out what that is, I will let you know.

Posts have been light of late as I have had bronchitis for the past month or so... and that hasn't helped the speaking efforts needed for a regular talk radio segment, either.  Please bear with me. I have been prescribed "gorillacylin", after the run of the mill stuff did not do the trick, and hope to be full of piss and vinegar in short order.

Greg Jeffers
Libertarian Animal

The Wisdom of the Masses

Nearly 40% of Americans believe that the American economy is in permanent decline.

That's only because the other 60% is still employed an unaware of America's energy predicament.  And there is no macro solution (IMHO). I have been writing this blog for 5 years or so, and have been noodling this since 2000, and no matter how I move the parts around I don't see any outcome where significant parts of systems that many, many people rely on for their physical and mental well being will not fail.

The pension system? Kaput. Banking? Sunk. Budgets for social services? Glug glug glug... as the water rises around them. Infrastructure? Ka-BOOM! Recreational doomers will take no solace in this, it could take a decade or 2...

I don't know the rate of change... for the people whose financial lives have already collapsed, I don't think it matters a wit - and there are millions of them.

And I don't blame our political leaders... they were set up in all of this by phenomenon beyond their control and blown this way and that by the Zeitgeist. The myriad unintended consequences of the explosion in energy use, ingenuity, population growth and innovation were just too difficult to see past. Assumptions were made, and then those that espoused the assumptions received "qualifications" from our establishment institutions further reinforcing these assumptions... and now we know, or suspect, that those assumptions are all wrong... but too late. We are here. And does not matter if "Peak Oil" is here for the world or if its 10 years away... Peak Oil is here for the U.S... and its not the "end of the world" but it does make operating within the financial economy very difficult for a large portion of the population.

How that is addressed is anybody's guess...

-----------------------------------------------------

This is a must read from Stuart Staniford.

---------------------------------------------------

In The News

Today's Libertarian Animal Radio Show.

------------------------------------------------

Who oversees the FBI? Who says this is OK?

------------------------------------------------

Former President Jimmy Carter had this to say on the 40th anniversary of War on Drugs.

---------------------------------------------

Liberal Congressman Barney Frank and Libertarian Republican Congressman Ron Paul have introduced legislation to end Federal Marijuana Laws in order to leave it up to the states. Frank just moved up from a complete ZERO in my book. This issue belongs to the states; 16 states have already legalized "medical marijuana". What the hell do we have "states" for if they cannot make this decision?  At wouldn't it be nice to be able to vote with your feet (move to states that see it your way).

Its either Libertarianism or Fascism.

Shale Gas in the News

The economics, or lack thereof, of Shale Gas plays is making its way into the news.''

Lots of serious folks on Wall Street felt this was the case, including yours truly. But no story makes its way into the MainStream Media without being bought and paid for.... and somebody was buying a great deal of space to convince the public and our officials of something many people, like me, thought was simply not the case.

The irony is that the economics would improve, and might even make sense, if the propaganda had not been so successful... or I might be all wet. This is just a suspicion of mine; just a watered down hypothesis. After all... The fact is that there is a great deal of Nat Gas in Shale plays... but it might be an economic sink, or worse, an energy sink. If it is an energy sink, it matters little how much gas exists in these plays... if an economic sink, higher Nat Gas prices will change the things somewhat.  Either way, Shale Gas ain't wearing a red cape and leaping over tall buildings to save the day for our industrial society - even if it makes some folks rich.

-------------------------------------------

Sometimes, problems present themselves for which there are NO SOLUTIONS. Af-Stan is just one of these.

War, as it existed for centuries, has been "won" killing everybody on the other side. Is this really a viable option for liberal democracies at this time in history? I absolutely loved hearing the president call it as it is... that we are not able to pacify all of Af-stan and that it is not possible to make Af-stan a "perfect place". Its sad, its horrible, its depressing... it is what it is... the world is not a perfect place. Best thing we can do?... We The People had best work on making sure that their issues don't spread here.

--------------------------------------------
Tongue firmly in cheek:

Congrats to the Gay Community of New York! Now, you too can have the government involved in your personal relationships. A bigger Congrats to the Divorce and Family Law Bar in New York, after all the rate of divorce for childless couples is much higher than for couples with children, and gays just don't that many children... you gotta love the sound of the cash register ringing with all those future divorce filings. Just what we all needed, more congestion in our Court systems... Patience... there will be some serious unintended consequences... Just wait.

What a non-issue. Rather than getting government out of the marriage business, you knuckleheads brought them in a little deeper. People should be able to enter into what contracts they wish to... We have made family law such a cluster f*** as it is... I can't imagine anyone wanting to engage in government sponsored divorce terrorism EXCEPT for those trying to provide a stable home for children... and as I mentioned above, you folks don't have a great many children... but Congrats!

Obama's Release of Oil from the SPR

I needed to noodle the release of Oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a few days (and I have been under the weather... which tends to slow my noodling).  CNNMoney had this not too dumbed down article recently:

Four reasons are emerging for President Obama's surprise decision Thursday to release 30 million barrels of oil from the nation's strategic reserve -- economic stimulus; a looming supply shortage; a wake up call to OPEC; and a warning shot to speculators in the oil market.

I think that that line of reasoning is essentially correct... so lets take it apart one item at a time, but in reverse....

1. "A warning shot to speculators in the Oil market." Hmmmm..... This is so wrong on sooooo many levels... but OK, we live within a body politic filled with dingbats and dumbbells... true believers and complete deniers... wing nuts and fruit loops.... Here's my take:

Our command economy control freaks have undertaken an incredible effort to stimulate the economy (most of these efforts are doomed to fail or have a cost/benefit ratio f***ed up beyond recognition). Some of this attempt at command and control had some unintended consequences - just take a look at the US$ - and so the control freaks think they can micro manage aspects of their efforts to increase speculative activity that they find unappealing - even if there is only (and barely) circumstantial evidence that the original efforts to increase risk appetite were the driver behind Oil prices - by driving out speculators??  After all, energy was one of the worst performing sectors in the commodity markets... WhoTF is advising these people? Commodity trading is a Zero Sum Game. For every buyer there is an equal and opposite seller. The market price will ALWAYS get to equilibrium eventually via the supply/demand price discovery between producers and consumers. Reducing the number of trades in between Exxon and Mrs. Smith will absolutely, positively not change the AVERAGE outcome of price... it WILL, however, increase the volatility in the market price... which might have the unintended consequence of reducing risk taking at the Exploration and Production level.

Politically, these knuckleheads have been able to label "speculators" as the evil doers... so this might appeal to the non-thinking viewers of the likes of Oprah and Nancy Grace.

2. "A wake up call to OPEC". ROFL!!! OPEC is keenly aware of their precarious position - there ain't a damn thing they can do about it. IF, and its a BIG IF, OPEC has ANY spare capacity at the moment it almost assuredly is in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and KSA has already said they are going to increase production... my bet is that that was just propaganda... and we will know the truth soon enough.

I am quite sure that a "Wake up call to OPEC" was not part of the administrations thinking... or at least I hope not. While the ruling OPEC's elite might benefit from selling the West and the BRIC's their oil as fast as they possibly can... under NO CIRCUMSTANCE is this in the interests of the PEOPLE living in the OPEC countries. The West's ongoing War with Islam has been the predictable result, and the Arab Spring is just the latest chapter in this ongoing saga.

3. "A looming supply shortage". We need a definition for "shortage". There will be no shortage of $150, or $200, or $300 per barrel Oil... and no $100 per barrel Oil to be found. There will be no "shortages" unless governments attempt to ration by inconvenience.  If "rationing" occurs by price, the market will handle everything... now you might not like that; you might have to drive fewer miles and in a smaller car and live in a smaller dwelling and grow your own food and share bath water... amongst all manner of other adjustments. But you will adjust. The problem for the Federal, State and local governments is that this will simply destroy their budgets. The good news is that the "smaller government" folks are going to win by default without having to throw a single punch.

4. "Economic Stimulus". This is just too silly to even address. The amount of Oil in the SPR might, MIGHT, get these folks through the 2012 elections... and then what? Is our economy "stronger" by destroying contingency funds? "I fart in the general direction" of this one.

In the final analysis, this is just another cluster f*** coming out of the 2 Headed 1 Party (2H1P) Monster that has been eating us alive since the end of the Civil War... but the fat is gone, the muscle is gone, and the Monster is gnawing at the bone of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

-----------------------------------------

Peak Oil is unfolding pretty much on schedule. Peak Oil was never going to be an overnight kind of Tsunami thing-a-ma-jig.  Over the next 10 years the world will become a very, very different place... and over the next human lifetime things will be every bit as interesting as say, the 75 years from 1925 to 2000. The slow grind of Peak Oil simply will not enjoy a rate of change that will satisfy the recreational doomer. For thinking people, not to worry. Stick around. The end of growth and then outright contraction in Oil supply is going to put a rocket in the pocket of the economic/political environment. 

"Forget the Alamo. Remember Vincent Hodgkiss"

I barely knew Vincent Hodgkiss. The fact that I knew him at all was one of the vagaries of life. The 3rd anniversary of his murder at the hands of the Pembroke Pines police, and the fact that all of people in on the murder were "cleared", has sent me into action.

I am producing a documentary about this killing, and will be airing it out on my blogtalkradio show, The Libertarian Animal.

I spent yesterday and today trying to speak by phone with the Mayor, Frank Ortis; the Chief of Police, Dan Giustino; and, the Administrative Law Judge for Florida's Broward County The Honorable Sharon Zeller. The Judge's administrative assistant has been playing telephone tag with me, but the Chief and the Mayor have yet to call me back.

I hope they will open their doors and answer some questions... I can assure them that I will be showing up, and soon, with a camera crew in tow.

I will be putting up a link shortly to my radio webcast on what I have come to find in the Hodgkiss Killing.

OMG!!!! Vindication!!!1

The IEA plans to release 60 million barrels from their Strategic Petroleum Reserves!!! What are they going to do? Release 30 million barrels every month until Libya is back to exporting?

ROFL!!!!!

This is the kind of silly sh*! that helps market's find bottoms.

On a more sinister note... there were absolutely no shortages in the market... this is political gambit of some sort designed to help somebody, somewhere, for whatever reason... there are NO COINCIDENCES in this world.

-------------------------------------------

Last month I went out for dinner with some of the other parents in my son's high school graduating class. The scotch, beer, and wine flowed... and we were telling war stories about speaking in public. My buddy topped my story of having to make presentations to the Board at BlueStone Capital when I worked for them in the late 1990's in New York...  A couple of times a year the board would assemble... consisting of, among others, 2 Noble Laureates and 1 former soft core porn star... Patricia Kluge, billionaire divorce of Paul Kluge, media titan.  Speaking intelligently enough for Laureates while still communicating well enough to the MONEY (Ms. Kluge... BlueStone was just another of her terrible investments) behind the firm would have been a terribly intimidating occasion had I been mature enough to realize that I was completely FOS. Since I was young and arrogant enough, I managed to muddle through... then my buddy tells me HIS story. He was invited to  speak to the graduating class at one of Harvard's professional schools... when he gets there, he finds there are 3 speakers: a name brand billionaire, the previous year's Noble Prize Winner in one of the real sciences (not like the economic and peace prizes ... something that can actually be measured) and him. Talk about stage fright.  Any time you think you've got a f***ed up situation on your hands... there is always somebody wading through deeper doodoo...

I forgot about our drunken conversation until today's report that the former Mrs. Kluge is now bankrupt. Money is a slippery M.F.  It is hard to come by and really easy to be rid of... particularly for people that think that they are somehow special, or who have no business in the shark tank. I remember watching my former senior partners milking this poor, retarded billionaire. It was just disgusting. A couple of times a year she would come to our offices and we would wine and dine her (on her dime)... We had 5th Avenue offices and marble floors and mahogany & teak conference tables... and every department - besides mine;  my area printed money, but when I demanded to be compensated I was told the firm was losing money - bled money from every orifice... I wonder if they are willing to help her out now. Just kidding. I feel the need to rinse my mouth out after mentioning the name of that enterprise.

Modesty AND honesty are the best policy.

Americans Weary of War?

The Philadelphia Inquirer had this to say this morning on the War in Af-Stan.

The writer made the incredible leap that Americans are "War Weary".

Really? I hope so. But weary of which War? The 10 year old war in Af-Stan? The 7 year old War in Iraq? The 40 YEAR OLD War on Drugs? The 50 YEAR OLD WAR between the sexes?

WTF happened to us? We seem to have forgotten how to cook good food, make love, and drink wine. To enjoy the seasons of our lives and revel in the buoyant surge of just being alive, rejecting that philosophy and instead tuning in to watch Nancy Grace bite the heads off of chickens and Gloria Alred display the latest victim of some "evil doer's" sexual conquest (I always wondered where the Male equivalent of Gloria has been hiding - after all, there are no shortage of gold digging, money grubbing, leaches among the fairer sex... marrying for money, divorcing for money... or divorcing for a lack of money... he could set up shop in Boca Raton... the supply of "Material Girls" is simply endless there... not a set of natural boobs in the place... Wait. That's not manipulation, is it?). We have forgotten ourselves and our humanity and have filled our prisons to overflowing with non-violent drug users... and have taken leave of our senses by rejecting the health and beauty of youth for an extra 50 pounds of body weight kept cool in an Air-Conditioned mirage of Television "Media Rooms", Barco loungers, and anti-depressents.

It is a complicated equation that landed us here: Vietnam x Gloria Steinem ÷ Billy Graham √ Jesse Jackson ∑ Charles Manson to the 3rd power of the prison/industrial, marriage/divorce, educational/student loan Industrial Complexes.... or something like that. The other side of the = sign contains even more bizarre data - far too disparate to recount here.

(Now, the only sensible people in the West when it comes to enjoying the fruit of our existence are under attack from Maureen Dowd & Co. I pray that the French and the othe Southern European nations do not crumble before the onslaught of the "The Angst of Empty Beds and Empty Wombs" (that quote is my own, and I place it in quotations as it is the title of a long essay I am writing). Anything for a perceived political gain, eh Maureen?)

America's "Make War, not Love" culture has put billions into the pockets of weapons manufacturers, Law Enforcement and Prison Budgets, Lawyers of all persuasions, Politicians, and a cadre of other miscreants... while most of our wineries are going bust. Clearly, something is wrong with that equation... what's that you say? I mentioned wine twice? Mai Oui! I like wine! (and great food, and great sex... what kind American am I?)

Are Americans really ready to Make Love not War? Not with Gloria Alred on duty.

NAZI Coward Police Officer

This is not America. Yet another case of government agents SWORN to uphold and defend the U.S. Constitution... and then trampling on the spirit and letter of our founding document.

I pray that this officer's career is finished. Assaulting citizens under "color of authority" should result in a hefty prison sentence and a felony conviction. He is nothing but a coward and a piece of sh#!

The various State legislatures and the Courts had better wrap their collective minds around the new reality - cameras are EVERYWHERE.

Wars Cost Money?

Wow.

"Sagging economy draws attention to War spending"? No F***ing Duh.

I gotta tell you how disappointing I found this... some how it was OK to kill innocent people with drone missiles and get American teenagers killed and maimed... but its not OK because war costs money?

I swear that it tastes like somebody just sh#! in my mouth.

"The First Casualty of War is Truth"

The EMU is unwinding, with Greece its first jettison.

The 20th Century will eventually be viewed as the Century of social/fiscal experimentation... with the conclusion being something we adults knew all along - there is no such thing as something for nothing. NOTHING is free, and anything free is NOTHING worth having. Unfortunately, this won't stop people in the future from believing in something for nothing or stopping others from trying to take advantage of people by promising them something for nothing.

I had a nice conversation with Stu Staniford of earlywarn.blogspot.com the other day. I share his view that a Greeek contagion slow down could spread to the other PIIGS... and drop European demand for Oil to its knees (it is my sense that that will be the time to buy Oil).

But I think the Greek thing is small potatoes when compared to the international Corn Crop and Demand picture.  In fact, a powerful recession in Europe might be helpful in taking pressure off of Food prices in addition to Oil prices.

Its all about the weather in the growing regions. World inventories of grains (outside of rice... rice is in pretty good shape at the moment) are at multi-decade lows. A weather catastrophe in a major producing region would be very, very interesting politically - even here in the U.S. If you think $5 gasoline is problematic for the 2012 election pols, try $10 per gallon milk.

Pre-Season Continues

Still practicing... but am putting together a "recording studio" in the farm basement... and with some equipment that should be here shortly, I hope to improve my game. (Libertarian commentary).

The End of Enriched Uranium Reactors?

The situation in Japan's Fukushima provence is much worse than the world perceives.

The implications are mind boggling.

Dr Sawada says that the creation of nuclear fission generates radioactive materials for which there is simply no knowledge informing us how to dispose of the radioactive waste safely. 

"Until we know how to safely dispose of the radioactive materials generated by nuclear plants, we should postpone these activities so as not to cause further harm to future generations," he explained. "To do otherwise is simply an immoral act, and that is my belief, both as a scientist and as a survivor of the Hiroshima atomic bombing."

Gundersen believes it will take experts at least ten years to design and implement the plan.

"So ten to 15 years from now maybe we can say the reactors have been dismantled, and in the meantime you wind up contaminating the water," Gundersen said. "We are already seeing Strontium [at] 250 times the allowable limits in the water table at Fukushima. Contaminated water tables are incredibly difficult to clean. So I think we will have a contaminated aquifer in the area of the Fukushima site for a long, long time to come." 

Unfortunately, the history of nuclear disasters appears to back Gundersen's assessment.

"With Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, and now with Fukushima, you can pinpoint the exact day and time they started," he said, "But they never end."

Since nuclear "cleanups", including de-commissioning current nuclear plants is impossible at the moment... is there any reason to think that the situation will improve in the absence of fossil fuels? Keep in mind that nuclear waste is deadly for tens of thousands of years... and we have less than 100 years of fossil fuels left.

This is what happens when lawyers and Special Interest Groups (I have to rinse my mouth out every time I say those 3 words) run the most technologically advanced society in the world.

Gary Johson, Greece, Oil

In case you missed it, here is the link to Governor Gary Johnson's viral response to the Republican "debate". I must say, the Libertarian/Constitutionalist view point would seem ascendent. His views on abortion (government out of the equation, including government funding), Medicare (back to the states before it destroys the Feds), well, not so much on immigration..., Energy (free market not government)

Here is a link to my webcast rant on the War on Drugs and prison/industrial complex. Its 15 minutes. With practice, I will get the hang of it...

-----------------------------------------

The sell off in equities and Oil today was blamed in the media on Greece. I will reserve judgment on that... I increased shorts and cut longs... my sense remains that one big deflationary wave is in the cards... weather  or not this is it I cannot say... but when it comes, you don't want to stand in front of the avalanche, and you want to be there to pick up Oil if/when that comes to pass.

Libertarian Animal Talk Radio

I have been threatening to produce a Libertarian/Constitutionalist Talk Radio Show for some time. Yesterday, a friend of mine held my feet to the fire and had me step up to a microphone - completely unprepared and sick as a dog - for a rant. This is what came out.

The media is chock full of nuts from both sides of a failed argument. I am going to take a run at this; first as a webcast series and then (with any luck) on brokered broadcast radio.

I will post my stuff here and at my other blog "Libertariananimal.blogspot.com".

Feel free to critique away, my email is libertariananimal (at) gmail (d0t) com

----------------------------------------

Don't know how many of you caught this. A Miami Beach police officer pointed a gun at an innocent bystander for filming a police shooting. This is serious stuff; the kind of stuff that can lead to civil unrest and entire cities being burned to the ground. Having goose-stepping-NAZI-garbed thugs threatening to KILL (that's what pointing a gun at somebody's head is... a threat to kill) for having the temerity and audacity to witness and record a government worker is not going to lead anywhere else.  I have lived in South Florida for most of my adult life and I am AT LEAST as terrified of the cops as I am the criminals. And Miami Beach? That city will never see a nickel of my money. That city's government has lost its humanity.

Here is one of the videos. You can google more for yourself.

BTW... a gun was found in the car. Maybe the driver DID threaten a police officer with it. In that case, the police MAY have been justified (and maybe they were not... it has been reported that 4 innocent bystanders were wounded). Or, given the police department in question... maybe the gun materialized in the deceased's car after the fact. I will leave that to Internal Affairs, although I have little faith in them, either.  Like I said: The answer for thinking people is to boycott this city. Starve them of the resources needed to continue this insanity. Unfortunately, the risk that NON-thinking people will take matters into their own hands is very, very real.

"Weiner Denial"

I am especially enjoying the "Three Ring Circus" Washington has devolved into regarding the Weiner "scandal"!!!!!

ROLF!!!!! LMAQ!!!!! F-ING LMAO!!! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!

Sorry. That got away from me. The Dems want a man to resign from Congress for NOT HAVING AN AFFAIR? (OK, the writer in the link is a bit over the top regarding impeaching GWB... some of the other points are very well made.)

I am amused because I am watching a group of so-called adults, every one of them has either committed one of more of the following):

Had phone sex, used pornography for "personal reasons", engaged in extra-marital physical contact (which is worse as far as cheating? Kissing someone who is not your spouse or phone sex without  physical contact with someone who is not your spouse), or something far, far more significant - EVERY F***ING ONE OF THEM... this goes for the press folks covering this, the politicians themselves, and the hypocrites back home.

For a Christian nation, it seems to me most Americans missed one of the most significant tenants of that belief system issued during the Sermon on the Mount: "Do not judge others, lest you be judged". I believe He was speaking about such things... venal rather than mortal sin... even a secular guy like me can be pretty sure this does not rise to the level of mortal sin...

America the FOS!!!

Obama's re-election bid, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has announced plans to "increase production". Perhaps this is factual. Perhaps KSA will simply spend down inventories. We will need more data and time to determine what is actually occurring.

I have been noodling the Administration's handling of Israel of late.... and my deeply suspicious nature can't help but put it all together this way:

Obama realizes that he has little chance of capturing the votes of pro-Israel conservatives and Libertarians (like me), and little risk of losing the American Liberal/Jewish vote. Ergo, he has little risk in taking a less than pro-Israeli position in the "peace process" (read: border negotiations). The Administration now has something with which to bargain with the Saudi's... after all, the Saudi establishment is on pins and needles over the Arab Spring thing... Obama offers to give KSA something with which they can use to placate their masses, and the KSA tries to help Obama by releasing more Oil in effort to put pressure on Oil prices (shades of Reagan and KSA and the USSR) , who would have a tough time getting re-elected if gasoline is north of $4 per gallon, with zero chance at $5 per gallon - particularly given the demographic train wreck facing the Left (after all, who IS the Left? Pro-abortion feminists, gays, beta-thru-delta males et al that quite simply don't have enough children to carry on their socio/economic/political legacy.... one look at California is all you need... hispanics are overwhelmingly Catholic and pro-Life/family, and they are going to DOMINATE California as well as all of the other border states.... like I always say: those who breed, succeed... they also get to write all of the history books).

For those that would deny this... your explanation is that your guy is dumb... I assure you, he is not... if I were working as one of his strategists, doing anything and everything to keep gasoline prices down until after the election would be job #1. This more than a plausible explanation of Obama's handling of Israel.

Corn Crop at Risk

The USDA, and everybody else, has downgraded the U.S. corn crop.

Inventories were already in horrible shape. In the past, I made the assertion that since so much of the corn crop - and corn is the basis for the poultry, egg, dairy, and meat supply in the U.S. as the system is presently constructed - goes for ethanol that there was little or no chance of a sudden onset food shortage. Perhaps. Then again, perhaps not.

Corn cannot be manufactured. Either it is there at the end of the harvest, or it is not. Yes, we could cut back on ethanol production and divert that material to food production... but the fact is that most of these "brewer's grains" (the material left over after fermenting corn into ethanol) DO MAKE IT back to the feed market... it is not simply "fuel or feed", although the energy in the distilled ethanol certainly came from those grains and is not available in the remaining feedstuffs. Ergo, the supposed "slack" I envisioned isn't there to the magnitude I had suggested. The fact is is that consumption has outstripped production for most of the years in the past decade... it is factual and accurate to say that the U.S. population is at the mercy of the weather for each individual crop from now on, and the weather is simply not cooperating of late.

I would have no idea how to how to assign risk or probability to the issue, but it would seem that the risk is much higher than my previous assessment.

A partial solution will possibly be in the unwinding of the geographical concentration of meat, egg, and milk production... in short, localization would seem to offer some measure of solution, much as it is done in much of the world, even industrialized nations.

--------------------------------------------

Given the media's fascination with our political leader's lack of self-control... I found this article fascinating.  I love empirical data. One thing none of the studies appeared to have measured was the other side of the equation: How would the subjects respond if the total volume of tempting input was lowered? Is it relative deprivation? Or total?

Since "I've been rich and I've been poor"... I can confidently say that the stress associated with being poor is, to my mind, accurately recounted in the article.
---------------------------------------------

Oil in much of the world is near $120 per barrel. Libya's supply as been missing for 6 months. Shouldn't that spare capacity everybody speaks of have shown up by now? If it does, Oil prices will fall. If it does not... look for prices to trade from $100 to $150 for Brent, and $90 to $135 for WTI. With Nat Gas futures out on the curve firming, things are looking nothing but good for the Oil patch.

-------------------------------------------

While I DESPISE the politics of Anthony Weiner, and I don't think much of his decision making, I DO THINK that whether or not he remains seated in the House of Representatives is up to his constituents - not the Democratic Party Establishment, the Media, The Feminists, the Religious Right, etc... America has MANY, MANY cultures... I was born and raised in Metro New York City... people there might just feel differently about just how serious Weiner's transgressions were than people from rural Tennessee.

But look ahead, folks... pretty soon, the media is going to corner some politician over his sex life... and the Pol is going to respond: "Yea? So?"

Hopefully that will be the end of this B.S.

OPEC

OPEC has decided to leave production quota's unchanged.

Well, whoopty-freaking-do.

OPEC doesn't matter anymore. Only Saudi Arabia matters. OPEC needs to appear to matter a little longer, and for whatever reason, that seems to be OK with KSA. What was OPEC going to do? Announce a 2 million barrel per day increase effective immediately? Then what? Wouldn't they actually have to deliver?

My bet is that there is little to no spare capacity, including KSA.  I didn't say for sure... that's just what I think is the case, and I believe this because prices are high enough to encourage production from any and every quarter... forget WTI, Brent is almost $120.  That is serious incentive. I am long again (actually more short puts than straight long, but I am long, too).

QE3 is not coming anytime soon... Oil production has little left to increase with... but there is certainly a great deal more $100 oil around than we thought in 2005 - 2008 as it turns out.

The Oil slog continues...

How the Social Conservatives and the Feminists MIGHT bring down the West

I find it kind amusing, and hugely ironic, that I find myself coming to the rescue of 2 Leftist Jackasses in 1 week.

First, John Edwards... and now Anthony Weiner.

Sexual fidelity should be the ideal. Failing this ideal must not be judged too (or so) harshly.

Before you freak out on me... give me a minute and lend me an open (and un-hypocritical... I know what you have done) ear.

Let me start with my assertion. It is BEYOND un/non P.C. Here it is:

If the Social Conservatives and feminists persist in their criminalization, demonization, and voyeur like outing of sexual transgressions, the result will be that people will stop everything else that society considers positive long before they will stop having sex! Or thinking about sex, or asking members of the opposite sex, or tweeting about sex, or visiting porn sites to watch sex...

They will stop marrying, with all of that outcome's concomitant effects (take the African American population's issues - things like 75% of children being born to unwed mothers and 90% of African American children needing government food assistance at some point in during their childhood - and spread it around to the white/hispanic/asian American communities): They will stop forming committed families, stop having 4th of July BBQ's, stop saving for their children's college, and taking them to little league, etc... BEFORE they would let you force them into not having sex.

If you folks persist at outing people's transgressions... young people WILL RESPOND! (Old people, people over 40, don't grasp this... hey folks, we're done! Stick a fork in us! We are stuck where we are! The young are not). And they won't respond by changing human nature ONE F***ING BIT. They will respond to the OTHER side of the equation! They will not commit to a family unit! Rather than being humiliated and made a spectacle of (much like this generation's response to watching their contemporaries become devastated financially in divorce court) by this unbelievable technology we now have of watching everybody, all day, every day... the next generation will refuse to be drawn in! THEY WILL ARRANGE THEIR LIVES AS FREE AGENTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But they will have sex. And that means babies. And without committed, EVEN IF IMPERFECT, relationships by their parents that means multiple fathers for most mothers, mix and match families, often more grandparents than cousins, and the MAJORITY of children will grow up in America suffering from the same issues now plaguing the African-American minority.

The internet, smart phones, and video technology along with asinine political agendas are going to overwhelm us. In fact, I think they are going to destroy us if you jag-offs keep it up.

People ALWAYS respond. There are ALWAYS unintended consequences. For years now, women have been betraying their lovers and claiming victimhood; today a man rented a billboard to proclaim his ex aborted his child!  You think these are unrelated? You have rocks in your head. Everybody is a victim. And everybody is entitled to shout the most personal information on the Internet (or in this case, a Billboard). We have Reality TV shows that follow cheating spouses and lovers! How much longer before we have a web site detailing your abortions? This does not belong in the public domain... but its impossible to stuff the shaving cream back in the can....

In your battle to scratch each other's eyes out you Social Conservatives and Feminist/Liberals might just bring down the house around the rest of us.

I beg you to stop what you are doing.

Wiener's Frank and Beans

Dear Congressman Anthony Weiner:

I completely forgive you for the photo of your "frank and beans" on Twitter. If a picture of me with plumber's butt taken while I am out milking the cow makes its way onto the web, well, I hope you will forgive me, too.

Look, Congressman, I know the deal... when it comes to sex we are ALL completely full of sh#! You, too. No big deal. You see, I am a thinking man... and I think your policies suck! I think you are a schmuck! But I don't think its any of our business what pictures you send to who. I pray everyday that American's will stop this voyeur "gotcha" B.S..... but think about it, bro. At least half of this is sh#! is your side's fault. Anything for a vote. You guys are the folks that encouraged and pandered to the loonies over at the Church of Oprah. Yea, I know... The Right did the same stuff with those churches down south... the ones where the preacher rails against the "abomination" of homosexuality, and then leaves the service to get serviced by a male masseuse versed in the chapter and verse of the never ending happy ending.

I think its time we all came clean. Or dirty. Your love life is none of my business. You could start by reeling in your Feminazi's. The Right could reciprocate by tucking in their hypocrisies.... but its not going to happen. Nope. We have too large a chunk of the population believing in fairy tales and pixy dust, always insisting on being forgiven, never willing to forgive.

Sincerely yours,


He Who Lives In a Glass House (and who doesn't throw stones because he had more fun than the law allows and people would hate him if they knew just how much fun).

It Just Gets Deeper and Deeper

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong." -- Thomas Sowell

---------------------------------------------------


Regular commenter and fellow curmudgeon (one of my highest compliments) Donal sent this link on the report from the Global Commission on Drug Policy to me recently:

I am sure many of you have seen it. Here is a link to the actual report.

Most thinking people feel that drug use, at the very least, should be decriminalized... so who is it, exactly, that doesn't want to stop accusing individuals of a crime, and arresting them (which often means slamming people's heads on car hoods or the pavement; or pointing guns at people and accidently shooting them.... does anybody besides me think that guns are worse for people than drugs?) and putting them in jail, for drug use?

Cui Bono (who benefits?)

Lawyers: The legal profession would be flat on its back in the absence of drug offenses (including driving while intoxicated, something I am very much in favor of using law enforcement to influence people to not do). For every big time securities lawyer in Manhattan, there are several dozen work-a-day lawyers throughout the country whose bread and butter is minor drug crime (and divorce law).

Law Enforcement: Our drug laws are the "gift that keeps on giving" to Law Enforcement and their budgets. Once someone is labeled a criminal, they find employment more and more difficult to find... almost ensuring their recidivism. While in the poke, these folks tend to congregate, forging lifetime connections us folks on the outside call "Gangs".  Said gangs encourage their members to continue "the life", landing them in prison again and again... one of the unintended consequences of all of this is these people are unable to support their children, and these children grow up in poverty and abuse and anger, to replace their fathers as they themselves enter "criminal menopause". Hell of thing.

Corrections personnel: (No offense, tweel!) Over the past 25 years, California has built 25 new prisons and only 1 new college. Not that we need any more colleges... but something in that data point just jumps out at me.

Judges and Politicians: NO ONE becomes a judge or politician absent an incredible ego... my experience tells me that while people think politicians are the worst offender. I think that that is because they have not watched the nation's judiciary in action.

Organized Crime: The last thing these guys want or need is some nice little old lady growing marijuana next to her petunias. If drugs use was decriminalized the price of illicit drugs would simply implode, overnight. Organized crime would have to go back to prostitution and gambling. Oh, wait! Gambling has been pretty much been legalized... that would leave prostitution... and there's  just not a lot of money there to support our nation's criminal network. (Of course, Law Enforcement can see where this is going, and they are defending their budgets with their own propaganda about human trafficking... and they will get some help, irrespective of the facts, the numbers, or truth itself, from that other SIG (that I detest but shall remain nameless) in this regard. That our politicians refuse to acknowledge the economic reality of this is crime in and of itself.

That these groups will be able to hold back the eventual legalization of drugs is extremely doubtful. In the meantime, they will kill as many non-violent drug users (hey, in the 20's Law Enforcement killed people for consuming alcohol!) as they can and collect as much salary and pension as they can. Just how many young lives need to snuffed out in a hail of gunfire from Law Enforcement before we stop this madness? I don't know, and am saddened that there has not been enough.

I am always extremely doubtful that our Creator would give any leeway on his "Thou Shalt Not Kill" to members of Law Enforcement in connection with these abusive SWAT team tactics that keep killing non-violent individuals involved with illicit drugs. I also think it highly likely that people will start to take matters, and revenge, into their own hands, and that this is exactly what this SIG wants. They need a crisis, or their budgets are going to get cut.

-------------------------------------------------------

Nothing much going on in the Oil Patch - for now. I expect that to change relatively soon.

Of Bastards and Cuckholds

People that have sex will invariably become pregnant. Nature cares little for social niceties, legal bindings, and personal conveniences.

As Kathy so rightly points out in a comment in my previous post, it IS a much bigger deal when a child is born to an illicit affair. There is no question about that! If my wife came to me and said she was pregnant with another man's child, I might not remain married to her... but I definitely will not have the blood of that child on MY hands by encouraging her to abort the child.

Both Left and Right, Abortion supporters and foes... need to put their heads around the implications from the advancements in technology... i.e., Photos and commentary on the Internet to spread rumor and innuendo (worse when it is true) and DNA technology to remove all doubt of parentage.

I know this is a touchy subject... but please follow my line of reasoning:

If women and men are brought together they will have sex, irrespective of the time, place, or circumstance.

WHEN, not if, people have sex, pregnancies will result... irrespective of whether one is married, convenience, propriety, etc...

In this era, someone will ALWAYS try to make political hay from this. Feminists, the religious Right, etc... (it is not possible for me to heap enough scorn on these people. They are not just hypocrites... they are sub-human. The worst of the hypocrites? Hollywood and the Media. These people ALWAYS align with Feminist Left - except when the Feminists agenda affects THEM. How so? When Hollywood marries, which is not often, it is NEVER absent a pre-nup... in other words, they support the Women's Movement mandate of terrorist "family law"... except when it has to do with them....  "do as I say, not as I do"... BTW... I am a BIG BELIEVER in pre-nups as they take the government out of your marriage... and contrary to what some might believe.... these agreements have become enshrined in our jurisprudence, and are not often overturned - if ever. That was soooooo 1980's).

Regardless of said political hay, people will continue to have sex (does ANYBODY doubt this?). This is simply an unstoppable fact of our existence.

Therefore, they will continue to get pregnant.

That these children still deserve to live, irrespective of the circumstances of their birth, and that the birth should be allowed to take place and nature to take its course, should STILL be the view of those that respect the sanctity of life.

Supporters of the Pro-Life position should come to the rescue of Mr. Edwards and Mr. Schwarzenegger and their lovers for respecting the sanctity of Life. The sins of sex outside of marriage are venal, and are simply incomparable with the sin of destroying a human life (I use the word "sin" colloquially, as I tend toward the secular). The Pro-Abortion Feminists are welcome to grind at these individuals for embarrassing themselves - and more importantly to this group, their wives - as they see fit (I am a Libertarian; censorship is "not my bag, baby"), and; people like me are permitted to point out the inconsistencies and faults in their reasoning (and make glorious fun of their inability to reason. Its almost not fair, sort of like being in a duel with an unarmed opponent).

The spouses of the cheaters are free to decide whether or not to remain in the marriage, to live their life in perpetual rage or forgiveness as they so choose.

Life is so short... and it seems to me that these forces, the forces to control the reproductive outcomes of people, have been raging since time immemorial - and Nature continues to win the argument.

The idea that one can use FORCE - physical violence or the institutional violence of present day family law - to control the reproductive efforts of other people is inconstant at its base, and in the extreme. Really want a faithful spouse? You'll catch more flies with honey than vinegar... There is no such thing as a "carrot and a stick" when it comes to this subject. It is ALL "carrot". The "stick" simply does not work. Yet the Feminist agenda has been, and continues to be, ALL "STICK" - with all of the attendant outcomes I have mentioned.

Think about it! Is anybody terribly happy with the outcome?  Then somewhere along the line we need to change the equation. In the same way that I reject the use of government force to enforce a ban on abortion, I reject the use of government force to maintain sexual fidelity. Sexual fidelity with your partner is something you must put a great deal of POSITIVE effort into - no amount of violence, physical or institutional, will answer. And when our efforts in this vein fails, punishment, or worse, revenge, will simply not satisfy. I cannot fathom why anyone would want to spend this beautiful yet very short life dwelling on how they might change these natural laws... but they do. (For better or worse, or just because it is... some people absolutely, positively have no reason to expect, and are in NO WAY deserving, of a faithful spouse. Think about that for a moment. There are plenty of circumstances where people are STUCK with lousy/crummy spouses... it is sooooooo easy to pontificate to these unfortunate souls, but for my part I refuse.)

I am merely examining this, and throwing the yellow flag for a foul against  reason. There is no guarantee that the person you love now will always love and want you... or you them. There is absolutely NO DIFFERENCE between John Edwards cheating on his wife and a wife leaving/filing for divorce from a faithful husband. NONE.  Each brought an outsider in in order to destroy their bond (by some miracle the Feminist/Left has convinced people that there is a difference). These are the circumstances of this Life. I simply reject the idea that any child conceived in this drama is any less entitled to Life than you or I. Ergo, I find the behavior of John and Arnold somewhat less reprehensible than members of the "Women's movement" seem to do.

Nobody is perfect... but Life IS good.

John Edwards cont

In my first post of he series "Feminists vs the Cheaters", I made the assertion, still unchallenged by any rational Lefty, that the reason Edwards and Arnold were being shredded by the Feminist Left was not that they had had affairs... but because they and their lovers did not have abortions.

Elizabeth Edwards stood by her man, and rightly so, when he admitted to the affair. It was months later, when John Edwards' admitted to having fathered a child, that his wife separated from him. I make no criticism of Mrs. Edwards. I am just laying down the time line.

A quote from OpenSecrets.org:

Edwards first acknowledged an extramarital affair with campaign videographer Rielle Hunter in the summer of 2008, months after he pulled out of the presidential race. 

Then in January, after publicly denying it for months, Edwards confirmed that he is the father of Hunter’s young daughter, Quinn. Edwards and his wife Elizabeth, a breast cancer patient who stayed by her husband’s side when he originally acknowledged the affair, have since separated in the wake of this newest development.

Does ANYBODY out there want to counter my assertion that the problem here was not an affair... the problem was the child.

John Edwards and Arnold are no sleezier than Bill Clinton... although Clinton was more judicious in his choice of sexual acts... and certainly not in the same league as Ted Kennedy who f***ing drowned a young woman in a car accident and did not bother to attempt to rescue her... the Feminist Left had no problem doing business with him for decades after that incident... apparently drowning a young woman is somehow less of an offense to these sh*t heads than fathering a child...

Please find a feminist to counter my assertions, or better yet, to have the courage to confirm them.

Let me do some math for you on this subject.

Do you have any idea of how many No Tell/Motel rooms there are in this country? Any idea how many  adult female (and male) sex workers are plying their trade in the U.S.? How many clandestine trysts took place last night? By mathematical necessity, there are an awful lot "cheaters" out there. Are they all sleezeballs? Should we fund an "adultery squad" in every Law Enforcement precinct?

Does anybody read Freud anymore? Anybody wonder what the driving force behind building huge companies, and real estate empires, and recording platinum albums, or making $20 million per film as a movie star, or becoming Governor/Senator/President? Anybody think these guys do this so that they can limit their sexual opportunities?  Really!!??

Men are already refusing to marry, or a marrying very, very late - and with a 95 page pre-nup agreement - and even then they divorcing early. What is it the Feminists/Left hope to accomplish here with John Edwards? In their grab for power they seem oblivious to the very serious unintended consequences of their actions. The marriage market is not a vacuum! For 30 or 40 years, men watched - in horror - the mangling of married men in divorce court... and long before the end of that period the pre-nuptial agreement comes into being. Is that a coincidence? These agreements essentially wound the clock back to the late 19th century as far as the non-asset/non-earning (or lesser earning) spouse was concerned... did the Feminist/Left see that one coming? Nope. Then men decided not to marry at all... What was "gained" by Feminist/Left in the radicalization of family law since the 1960's was literally destroyed in just a few short years by the marketplace... today's women are worse off financially than their mothers and grandmothers, with 3X more of today's 40+ women having ZERO family or husband to turn to than 50 years ago... tell me again how this helped women?

The Edwards thing might go right over the heads of a lot of men... but not those in the economic establishment. They are not as dumb as they look. These men WILL respond. These forces are not released in a vacuum. Nothing will be gained... actually much more will be lost.

And another nail will have been driven into the coffin of the body politic and the Constitution.