tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post7266670892247326036..comments2023-10-14T08:23:14.641-07:00Comments on The American Energy Crisis: US$ and the American Debt MachineA Quaker in a Strange Landhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-37962403178182368522009-09-11T03:18:20.585-07:002009-09-11T03:18:20.585-07:00Interesting article, inflation or deflation:
http:...Interesting article, inflation or deflation:<br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6146859/Does-the-world-have-the-courage-to-deal-with-its-debts.htmlDonal Langhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03421610061804732275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-16543739620609553052009-09-07T12:59:39.772-07:002009-09-07T12:59:39.772-07:00Great data WT
ThanksGreat data WT<br />ThanksThe Mad Scientisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00259128528077580628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-71574174257041485192009-09-07T11:27:32.546-07:002009-09-07T11:27:32.546-07:00The following is based on EIA data for the top 15 ...The following is based on EIA data for the top 15 oil consumers worldwide (based on 2007 consumption).<br /><br />What is interesting is the divergent response to the +20%/year rate of increase in annual oil prices that we saw from 1998 to 2008. US oil consumption in 2008 was back to the same level as 1999 (19.5 mbpd), so I thought I would compare the countries in the top 15 showing increasing consumption versus the countries in the top 15 showing declining consumption over the 1999 to 2008 time frame.<br /><br />The countries showing flat to declining consumption from 1999 to 2008 were: US; Japan, Germany; France; UK and Italy. Their combined consumption fell slightly from 33.6 mbpd to 32.2 mbpd, an annual decline rate of -0.5%/year, and a volumetric decline of 1.4 mbpd. Note that these are all OECD countries.<br /><br />The countries showing increasing consumption from 1999 to 2008 were: China; Russia; India; Brazil; Canada; South Korea; Saudi Arabia; Mexico and Iran. Their combined consumption increased from 19.8 mbpd to 27.0 mbpd, an annual rate of increase of +3.4%/year, and a volumetric increase of 7.2 mbpd. Most of the countries are non-OECD, and the only non-oil exporting OECD country in this group was South Korea, which only showed a small increase in consumption.<br /><br />The 15 countries overall consumption was 53.4 mbpd in 1999 and 59.2 mbpd in 2008 (about 70% of total worldwide consumption).<br /><br />If we extrapolated consumption by these two groups out for 10 years, to 2018, at the above rates, the Declining Group would be consuming 30.6 mbpd in 2018, and the Increasing Group would be consuming 37.9 mbpd in 2018. The combined total in 2018 would be 68.5 mbpd.<br /><br />It's possible that we are to some extent like the drunk looking for his keys late at night under a streetlight, because the light was better there, although he had lost his keys down the street. It looks like virtually all the increase in consumption is in non-OECD countries, but our best consumption and inventory data are in the OECD countries.<br /><br />Of course, our model and recent case histories suggest that we are going to see a long term accelerating rate of decline in worldwide net oil exports.westexashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13648669299354997219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-40616596543949992572009-09-06T10:29:35.370-07:002009-09-06T10:29:35.370-07:00I'm wondering if the move in gold had to do wi...I'm wondering if the move in gold had to do with Hong Kong's statement that they want their gold back from London. I bet the London bankers were short the paper and had to scramble to buy it back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-49851559865555194452009-09-05T00:41:52.242-07:002009-09-05T00:41:52.242-07:00I'd agree with your and Roubini's comments...I'd agree with your and Roubini's comments, but the analysis has some interesting consequences:<br />The value of the dollar must be held up by Europe, Asia and the Middle East because of all the dollars 'out there'in reserves and investments. But the commodity markets will move on without the US and its dollar, leaving it behind in an economic backwater as trade shifts to Asian currencies.<br /><br />Reagrding oil imports, to me the scary part is that, despite the biggest importer cutting imports by 20%, and Europe and Japan being in recession too, the price is still around $70! That means all that slack has been taken up by Asia. So how is it possible for the Western countries to ever recover?<br />As oil is the same price all over the World, then eventually labour rates will move to equilibrium too (the two fundamentals of the means of production). There are 3 basic ways that might happen; Asian wage rates increase, Western wage rates decrease, or Western currencies devalue. I think we'll see all three things happen over the next few years.Donal Langhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03421610061804732275noreply@blogger.com