tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post5738834661348379535..comments2023-10-14T08:23:14.641-07:00Comments on The American Energy Crisis: Whither Crude Oil?A Quaker in a Strange Landhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-47884358885499655872008-09-09T18:59:00.000-07:002008-09-09T18:59:00.000-07:00Coal Guy,The dollars will stop leaving the country...Coal Guy,<BR/>The dollars will stop leaving the country when the Chinese and the Saudi's stop taking them or they become so worthless that no one will take them.<BR/>Read Kevin Phillips book about the the financialization of late stage imperial economies. It is basically what happened to the Brits from about 1900 to 1918. They didn't accept that it had happened until 1945 or 1946.<BR/>As the modern UK shows today, there is life after empire.<BR/>The US just hasn't accepted it yet.<BR/>For 30 years, it has been borrow and squander. The bill is about to come due.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-43735528485459044012008-09-09T08:25:00.000-07:002008-09-09T08:25:00.000-07:00I don't think we're dead yet, but we gotta put the...I don't think we're dead yet, but we gotta put the cap on flood of dollars out of the country. This means a couple of things to me.<BR/><BR/> First, we need to cut imports. Second, we need to start manufacturing things of value in the US again. It is more than just the oil imports, its about cars and electronics and furniture and shoes and chemicals and a whole bunch of other industry that has move off shore. I'm not a protectionist to the extent that we need to protect inefficient business from offshore competition. The UAW and the big three auto makers FULLY deserve what they are getting. Big Steel and the USW deserved what they got! When they closed the mill in my home town, the open hearth was 107 years old. With the lack of capital investment on the company's part and union work rules, it took 26 man hours to make a ton of steel in the US, and 9 in Japan. <BR/><BR/>I have no sympathy. <BR/><BR/> What does bug the hell out of me is that we allow our pollution and unsafe working conditions to be exported. Clean air and water, and safe working environments cost A LOT OF MONEY. To the extent that foreign competition spills their shit on the ground and allows its workers' hands to be chopped off and their lungs ruined there should be tariffs that offset the cost difference. <BR/><BR/>This "free trade" that we are suffering under now abuses American and foreign workers alike. There is no way any manufacturing in the US can win this battle. <BR/><BR/> All of our Ivy League economists have forgotten that money is only worth what you can buy with it. True wealth is ownership of efficient means of production. Our money has no value because we have stopped making things of value.<BR/><BR/> We have a good 20% of the working age population on the dole. If they became productively employed there would be and economic boom that would make your head spin.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/><BR/>Coal GuyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-88530668923642375302008-09-09T08:07:00.000-07:002008-09-09T08:07:00.000-07:00>Also Europe uses half of the oil per capita fo...>Also Europe uses half of the oil per capita for the same standard of living, so with some investment the US could probably half (or even better) its per capita consumption. But that requires investment, which is the problem for now.<<BR/><BR/>The US is already sucking up 80% of global savings. The US saving rate is negative with the economy moving into recession or even deperession. The financial system is basically broken.<BR/><BR/>To say that it would take a little investment to reduce US energy usage in half would seem to be a major understatement when we are talking about decades of time and 10s of trillions of dollars to make this happen. And this is before oil prices go on their ultimate upward rocket rise in the near future.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-71447376722785255382008-09-09T07:55:00.000-07:002008-09-09T07:55:00.000-07:00Re; Coal GuyEither way, truth will out. I think th...Re; Coal Guy<BR/>Either way, truth will out. I think the Fed is just trying to keep the shit from hitting the fan until Bush is out of office. Then, all bets will be off.<BR/><BR/>But the bottom line is; the $ is near-worthless, the U.S. is selling its companies to its trading competitors and selling its children's futures as debt-ridden wage slaves.<BR/><BR/>Or am I understating the problems?Donal Langhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03421610061804732275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-9246808263814740132008-09-09T07:24:00.000-07:002008-09-09T07:24:00.000-07:00The markets reacted positively to the F&F take...The markets reacted positively to the F&F takeovers because it is the opposite of what happened in 1929, when the response to the bursting credit bubble was to tighten credit. This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Do we monitize the hell out of this situation and end up with a bizillion worthless dollars or allow a credit collapse and end up with just a very few valuable dollars? We can end up just as broke either way.<BR/><BR/>The markets have decided that the approach in 1929 was wrong. That doesn't make the other approach right.<BR/><BR/>Coal GuyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-86160649297998610892008-09-09T04:28:00.000-07:002008-09-09T04:28:00.000-07:00Sure was a coooold morning in Chicago today, and w...Sure was a coooold morning in Chicago today, and winter was early, and stayed late, last year too. But some people were still riding bikes to work yesterday. We'll see how long that lasts. The bus & train system is already taking about raising fares. I've gotta keep this damn expensive natural gas off .... somehow.Bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07155397620665687612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-70008328771171327572008-09-09T00:54:00.000-07:002008-09-09T00:54:00.000-07:00We've spoken before about the elasticity of oi...We've spoken before about the elasticity of oil demand in the U.S. - for the summer months it has proven to be VERY elastic, and as the U.S. uses 25% of the World oil, and 60% of that goes on transport, it's understandable that declining demand has weakened the price. For the moment.<BR/><BR/>Also Europe uses half of the oil per capita for the same standard of living, so with some investment the US could probably half (or even better) its per capita consumption. But that requires investment, which is the problem for now.<BR/><BR/>The crunch comes this winter. Canada will need its own gas, Mexico is a net importer, and the international gas price is very vulnerable to Russian tweaking of the supply tap to Europe. A bad winter could quickly use up stocks and marginal supplies of oil AND gas, and drive up prices very fast indeed.<BR/><BR/>Then of course there's Fanny & Freddie: We all know that money supply is a product of honoured debts, and inflation is the devaluation of money. With a debt to asset ratio of 65/1 and a collapsing property market, there's no asset value left - effectively dishonoured debt. Its only a matter of how deep is the shit that F&F will bury the value of the dollar, and the Government with it.<BR/><BR/>The BEST scenario at the moment is that, by the time this has played out, the Middle East and Far East sovereign funds will own enough of America that they won't LET it go bust!Donal Langhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03421610061804732275noreply@blogger.com