tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post4280099390188721052..comments2023-10-14T08:23:14.641-07:00Comments on The American Energy Crisis: Its a Cold Cruel World - Part 3A Quaker in a Strange Landhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-85139598789644140002010-03-03T05:56:15.008-08:002010-03-03T05:56:15.008-08:00Oooooooh, part 4 just posted!!!Oooooooh, part 4 just posted!!!bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-68318745539220498722010-03-03T05:50:43.445-08:002010-03-03T05:50:43.445-08:00Couple of points:
Wages and real wages are two di...Couple of points:<br /><br />Wages and real wages are two different things. Wages can stay at the same number (say Minimum Wage) but fall in buying power as the $ declines, so no direct confrontation with Unions.<br /><br />Bear in mind that oil and food is internationally traded so have a world price (or more precisely 'equal opportunity costs') for both Americans and Chinese, but wages and benefits are different. A devaluing $ can devalue until the US (or European) minimum Wage has the same 'value' as the Chinese wage for that job. At that point you and Europe can compete with China (but we'd all have to get back to doing some proper work!).<br /><br />Isn't Globalisation a wonderful thing!<br /><br />Regarding Unemployment figures; I'd say its more realistic to take the number of people actually employed (payroll) as a percentage of population from age 16 upwards. All governments hide unemplyment behind as many veils as they can shimmy behind. <br /><br />But these numbers are all meaningless really; in 10 years time 'employed' will be growing enough food for your family or making physically-useful stuff for your neighbours, it won't mean retailing, or aerospace, or house-building, or car-making, or consultant, or 'technician' in a nail bar!<br /><br />Westexas; scary! Imagine what the price of oil will be. And who will outbid the military (of both America and China!)?Donal Langhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03421610061804732275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-58821179611039075782010-03-03T05:06:30.369-08:002010-03-03T05:06:30.369-08:00Anon 9:17,
Bur WAS a big time prepper who started...Anon 9:17,<br /><br />Bur WAS a big time prepper who started too early and now is sitting on a ton of canned bennie wennies and the expiration date is quickly coming due and still no collapse as a whole. He still sees IT coming just not the way he first heard that IT would,sheepish... :)<br /><br /><br />Bur 8:25,<br /><br />Did you catch the News when all that snow hit the DC area over the last few weeks. Walmart shelves were to the bone. This is were the problems will start. Someone crying wolf or enough people connect the dots. Imagine 50%,60%,70% 0f the population googled AMERICAN ENERGY CRISIS one day instead of AMERICAN IDIOL, and woke up for a few minutes. Thats when you will see the gas stations close.<br /><br />I myself beleive in the numbers (ethonal, corn,crude oil,pop.growth,shelf life,etc and say no way )and humans' predictable and unpredictable nature. I think this year and next will interesting to say the least.<br /><br />peaceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-41126554282225574362010-03-03T04:25:02.398-08:002010-03-03T04:25:02.398-08:00Anon @ 6:38:
Over the longer term say 20 to 30 ye...Anon @ 6:38:<br /><br />Over the longer term say 20 to 30 years, I am less than sanguine about my children's future. Since I am powerless over much of this, and because my views on this will distract (and cause some to view me as a kook) I don't go there in this forum.<br /><br />I am not worried about society per se. We will work it out PROVIDED that there is enough food. The problem is, I believe at some point there will not be enough food (not saying it is this year or next or whenever), and that will be a BIG problem.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-13245762994665314992010-03-03T04:20:55.373-08:002010-03-03T04:20:55.373-08:00Anon @ 9:17:
WoW! Bur, I gotta say that I have b...Anon @ 9:17:<br /><br />WoW! Bur, I gotta say that I have been wanting to ask that for some time...A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-24756098155689080872010-03-02T21:17:41.134-08:002010-03-02T21:17:41.134-08:00bur,
I can't figure you out. This blog, as w...bur,<br /><br />I can't figure you out. This blog, as with most others is filled with like minded people on varying degrees of the spectrum and then some random idiots who like to say stupid things to get a rise out of others. You however are not easy to catagorize. Your obviously a smart guy who has his crap together and when you say things they are typically well informed and based in logic or contrary information to the ideas presented here. My question to you is why spend so much time on a blog offering the oposite opinon to most feelings and ideas that are shared here? It has to be more than pure entertainment and most people gravitate towards like minded people and not the opposite. I'm not entirely sure where you fall on the political spectrum (i'm assuming liberal/ progressive), but I'm a little stumped on your thought process. I can't say I really agree with your thoughts and your smiley faces drive me nuts, but you seem to be genuine. Help me out here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-8286036217335224792010-03-02T21:14:18.197-08:002010-03-02T21:14:18.197-08:00We are a lazy people. When I hire people for my C...We are a lazy people. When I hire people for my Construction company I go through 10 or 20 to get to one hard worker. The best workers are young dad's that have to support their family's. When colapse happens we will just be poor. Don't be fat, Lazy and unskilled. I can hunt, fish, poor concrete, lay block, do simple electrical work, play guitar and sing, and what I can't do I will figure out. Every third world nation handles it. Maybe we just become a more simple, slower paced agraian economy. With industry slowly falling off or maybe quickly who knows. Looters wont last i can tell you that. Only city slickers think that dumb shit. I have a small arsenal to protect my family. Have a good week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-29682284341778911052010-03-02T20:25:55.462-08:002010-03-02T20:25:55.462-08:00Here's a thought -- until you see your local s...Here's a thought -- until you see your local supermarkets and gas stations start closing, there isn't going to be any unrest and there isn't going to be a collapse. It's a lot less fun in reality that in those Mad Max movies. :)bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-18604989118002818432010-03-02T18:38:37.303-08:002010-03-02T18:38:37.303-08:00Greg,
I have been reading your blog regularly fo...Greg, <br /><br />I have been reading your blog regularly for about a month now. One thing that I have not seen you address in the postings I have read is your view on the effects all of this will have on society in the terms of extreme social unrest or possibly even collapse. I realize you are not a "doomer" in the apocaliptic sense of the word, but if even half of what you predict (and I agree with you) comes to fruition in the next few years, our society will never be the same. Furthermore, as this stack of cards collapses under its own weight, even an optimist (bureaucrat) would have to agree that the changes will not simply be in terms of lower paying jobs and riding bikes to work. I envision an entire nation that sees itself cheated out of what they either have earned or feel they are entitled to simply by being an American. I am far from the extreme end that feels society will destroy itself in a matter of days and we will all be running around shooting zombies, but I also know that we cannot go through these types of fundamental changes in our lives without additional consequences. When half of our country is dependent upon the government for its very survival (both in terms of employees and benefit recepients), something has to give. I would appreciate your thoughts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-44733053623123315672010-03-02T18:22:47.054-08:002010-03-02T18:22:47.054-08:00Seaborne wasn't really the biggest concern and...Seaborne wasn't really the biggest concern and unless we sink alot of infra-structure money into the current rail system I doubt it will help much.<br /><br />I was thinking more along the lines of energy overall that unless the world reconfigures for other energy sources the advantages of large scale production will be reduced. Which will force us into a more localized small scale industry output.<br /><br />The archdruid report had a good post on why factories are not always the best way to go recently.PioneerPreppyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09269878017447335944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-52378648687153945522010-03-02T18:06:08.419-08:002010-03-02T18:06:08.419-08:00Seaborne transportation uses almost no energy per ...Seaborne transportation uses almost no energy per ton mile, rail transport only slightly more. It’s the last mile that is the problem and it is faced by all producers equally, foreign and domestic. I think globalization will break down for political reasons, not technical.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04354887108778074009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-74198172645749625442010-03-02T17:14:27.122-08:002010-03-02T17:14:27.122-08:00Anon @ 4:51:
Cogent, huh? Well, I write on the f...Anon @ 4:51:<br /><br />Cogent, huh? Well, I write on the fly, barely a proof read to be found...A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-20709649346761964222010-03-02T17:12:43.569-08:002010-03-02T17:12:43.569-08:00Bureaucrat-
I think localized industry will have ...Bureaucrat-<br /><br />I think localized industry will have to reform and/or grow, which was what I meant by jobs created by the shrinking economy.<br /><br />The bright spot I guess is that all these Chinese workers who work for less won't really matter as the actual cost of transporting the goods will be too great.<br /><br />Will be the same for all goods as for food, we will have to depend on local industry and production.<br /><br />The end is not what I worry about its the shrinking in progress when everyone is fighting for the crumbs.PioneerPreppyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09269878017447335944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-82188276781264302902010-03-02T16:51:57.569-08:002010-03-02T16:51:57.569-08:00Part 3 was one the most cogent, concise and realit...Part 3 was one the most cogent, concise and reality based commentaries I've seen for awhile. I copied this to a few of my friends/family, although they may still avoid my emails from my news articles on issues with food, water, and oil from years ago--that of course can't ever effect disneyland/fantasy island of the USA. <br /><br />As people's lives look more like the baseline of Erikson's heirarchy of needs, most of these "isms" and "issues" will recede, since you need to have a lot of time and energy to worry about extra stuff--things that many of our ancestors didn't have much time for, at least during certain times of the year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-6482707712717303392010-03-02T16:45:03.228-08:002010-03-02T16:45:03.228-08:00how much I really have. Who knows where reality i...how much I really have. Who knows where reality is?<br /><br />My concern lately is .. have we gutted the American industrial infrastructure because the Chinese will work for 10 cents an hour, or are those Chinese products that are imported so cheap because of Chinese govt. currency manipulation? (making the Chinese currency artificially weaker, making imports cheaper) Further, how many people in America (the top 1% of income earners, who get 67% of the national income today, which hasn't been the case since the 1920s) got rich offshoring all these jobs to China and India?<br /><br />Apparently the Greeks, with their own currency, bought many of their own products domestically, until they joined the European Union in 2001. Now that Germany can beat the Greek companies on price with their exports (the one-currency Euro made that possible), Greece is swirling down the toilet.<br /><br />These are questions nobody is really exploring.bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-8872341127663540202010-03-02T16:37:58.632-08:002010-03-02T16:37:58.632-08:00NO doubt my (planned) retirement at age 57 with 30...NO doubt my (planned) retirement at age 57 with 30 years to go, being paid 35% of my salary as a pension, and having a generous "401" plan is indeed, by current standards, more than the average American worker has to look forward to. I haven't gotten it yet (only 42 :)) and I fully expect it to be less than advertised, as the money has already been stolen from the Federal retirement accounts for daily spending (just like the Social Security fund) and all I have is a blip on the screen sayingbureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-61560535766767402342010-03-02T15:13:55.489-08:002010-03-02T15:13:55.489-08:00We are shortly coming to the "freeze-in-place...We are shortly coming to the "freeze-in-place" moment. Mobility is already becoming an issue. I get queries on a daily bases to "come and work for us" in another state but it is no longer worth it to do it especially when I could be sacked shortly after moving. This mobility thing has done much more harm to our families than benefit. The Internet provides all the mobility we need. Now lets get down to building production capacity while we still have the resources to do it. China, India? Don't make me laugh, we will not be able to afford the energy to support globalism shortly. <br /><br />Let get this deflation event going so we can get to where we can start to build things again! Yes it is going to heart but guess what? It is going to happen anyway.....rfenneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04975605340172639454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-65457737234781381002010-03-02T14:42:53.128-08:002010-03-02T14:42:53.128-08:00Lastly, IMHO there will not be a "dynamic and...Lastly, IMHO there will not be a "dynamic and mobile work force" when Oil stops arriving at our ports.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-17336066265492834832010-03-02T14:42:00.457-08:002010-03-02T14:42:00.457-08:00Bureaucrat - I don't want to push government e...Bureaucrat - I don't want to push government employees to minimum wage and I don't think any reasonable person does either. Yet the pensions they do get are outrageous in some areas and has left many people feeling very upset. At least around here, which isn't far from you I don't think.<br /><br />Greg - as for all these unemployed who will need to take lesser employment you are completely correct, hell I did it myself and now drive a fork lift and load boxes all day. The problem I see is the actual number of these jobs, there just aren't enough to go around at present.<br /><br />I hope we can make it through until the shrinking economy opens up more of these jobs. I just am not sure it won't come to armed resistance in some areas honestly depending on how hard the government pushes for more taxes and less freedoms.PioneerPreppyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09269878017447335944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-30750215576820646582010-03-02T14:41:30.325-08:002010-03-02T14:41:30.325-08:00BTW... before the end of my lifetime, child labor ...BTW... before the end of my lifetime, child labor will be the norm for many American children unless something REALLY bad happens...<br /><br />And spare me the guilt trip and manipulations, oK? Let's have a legitimate co-examination of the issues.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-24006466863297237332010-03-02T14:39:02.111-08:002010-03-02T14:39:02.111-08:00Anon @ 2:17:
I never said there weren't worth...Anon @ 2:17:<br /><br />I never said there weren't worthwhile regulations... only that the funding simply won't be there and that eventually we will be doing triage on regulations to determine which really can and should survive.<br /><br />Look, I did not say what I HOPED would occur, only that there simply is not enough money for this - and at some point the international bond market is going to skip our Treasury auctions.... and THAT WILL BE THAT. It doesn't matter what we want, or hope, or wish for. Some things are immutable and ineluctable - its as simple as 2.71828183. If you don't know what that number represents just google it.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-37026571126164076522010-03-02T14:34:44.447-08:002010-03-02T14:34:44.447-08:00But if you ARE going to comment, don't waste y...But if you ARE going to comment, don't waste your time with smart a$$ stuff - I will delete it.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-41369902817760275322010-03-02T14:21:05.871-08:002010-03-02T14:21:05.871-08:00TO the smart A$$ whose comments I deleted:
Look, ...TO the smart A$$ whose comments I deleted:<br /><br />Look, I know I gored many a sacred cow... but the fact is that the LEVERAGE gained by society's producers with the use of Oil is going AWAY. And the demand from the consumers is also leveraged - the OTHER WAY.<br /><br />I just call them as I see them. You don't have to read my stuff... its not like you have a big investment in a subscription.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-26674580485123841342010-03-02T14:17:39.609-08:002010-03-02T14:17:39.609-08:00Ever see a 10,000lb drilling kelly drop onto a man...Ever see a 10,000lb drilling kelly drop onto a man's chest(I have)? How about the 3,000 dead coal miners that died in unsafe mines in the year 1916? How about the millions of little kids that were maimed and killed while working in factories with unsafe machinery and in mines before child labor was outlawed?<br /><br />Sometimes there are good reasons for regulations.<br /><br />And another point- People who have to nurse an 80 year old parent(s) aren't likely to pick up and move to the opposite coast to take on a new job. Or are they likely to make a radical change of profession. A dynamic and mobile labor force has long been considered an American strength. And social security freed younger people up to adapt to a dynamic economy as well as allowing older workers to move out of the way for younger workers to advance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-12418722297313065762010-03-02T14:15:12.693-08:002010-03-02T14:15:12.693-08:00I deleted a comment I filed under "Smart A$$&...I deleted a comment I filed under "Smart A$$". IF you have something intelligent to say that is in keeping with the intellectual pursuit of the points under discussion, feel free to repost.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.com