tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post4179264209976926687..comments2023-10-14T08:23:14.641-07:00Comments on The American Energy Crisis: $302 BillionA Quaker in a Strange Landhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-89370823406138707732010-04-09T13:57:11.665-07:002010-04-09T13:57:11.665-07:00With this on my mind, another "UK petrol is $...With this on my mind, another "UK petrol is $X/gal" mention. $9.13/gallon, it says right here:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-election-record-gas-prices-could-be-issue-2010-04-09?siteid=rss&rss=1" rel="nofollow">http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-election-record-gas-prices-could-be-issue-2010-04-09?siteid=rss&rss=1</a><br /><br />Except at the prices stated, it's more like $8.37/Imperial gallon, and $6.98/US gallon.<br /><br />The take-home lesson is I suppose to run the calculations yourself any time you see any non-metric units and/or currency conversion...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-16807675675360745182010-04-09T05:50:21.789-07:002010-04-09T05:50:21.789-07:00Kathy:
I am with you. We are big on "aftern...Kathy:<br /><br />I am with you. We are big on "afternoon delight" around here, enjoy a glass of wine with every evening meal, and never, ever miss desert!<br /><br />The U.S. is in much better shape than most other industrial countries to handle this. Land and water ARE in abundance, just not where the population is at the moment... that will change of its own accord.<br /><br />Its a transition. One can make the transition easily, or with great difficulty. Peak Oil is an ECONOMIC issue. Food is the real issue. The economy is going to contract over the next 10 years, perhaps very briskly. If you can work your way around that - problem solved. The rest is just life.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-42788457776088202732010-04-07T21:15:02.825-07:002010-04-07T21:15:02.825-07:00I don't think we will ever have roaming gangs....I don't think we will ever have roaming gangs. I think the more likely case is that many starve and others die from simple medical problems. Life is hard. I think more likely we end up like some 3rd world rat trap. Crony capitalism with a sprinkle of the magic social programs to keep the people placated. <br /><br />I do truly think you underestimate the necessity of weapons though. The truth is that the threat of being shot is a very complex feeling. I was held up at gun point once and I got to say you don't know what to do. I think most will go the other way. By the way bur You ever shot a deer with a sling shot? I have not. Hell they are hard to hit with a slug. :)Dextred1https://www.blogger.com/profile/10295971877800381681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-23002854909122446512010-04-07T19:38:52.348-07:002010-04-07T19:38:52.348-07:00Bur,
You may believe what you wish about who is s...Bur,<br /><br />You may believe what you wish about who is safer. I believe I am safer in the country surrounded by like-minded people who I've know for 40 years.<br /><br />Kathy,<br /><br />I agree with you. I don't think there will be a horde. If there is then I have to protect my family as best I can.<br /><br />If it gets so bad that neighbor is shooting neighbor I would rather be dead than fighting. There's no peace in it.<br /><br />Either way, I'm not preparing for horde. It's a waste of resources for me.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11538147109007226573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-38847305239627770942010-04-07T14:38:07.672-07:002010-04-07T14:38:07.672-07:00There are several possible realities when things c...There are several possible realities when things change. On one end, you could have the 1970s, where the worst we had to deal with was inflation, oil embargoes, disco and long hair. At the other end, we have had civilizations disappear (Empires from the Romans to the British, and someday our own wil end too). <br /><br />Anything could happen when you've pushed the limit in so many areas (extremely high debt, peaks in everything, lots of older people demanding benefits, etc.) I personally think that if the supermarkets and gas stations stay open (and tomorrow they will), you won't have Armageddon. <br /><br />But the gun thing is silly, cause you can be sitting on top of Walton mountain with your machine guns and gold, and you are no more safer or provided for than inner city people. We are all stuck in this together.bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-37643553142892569922010-04-07T13:58:41.112-07:002010-04-07T13:58:41.112-07:00You guys and your MZB's. It doesn't matter...You guys and your MZB's. It doesn't matter, does it? If they come, I'm a middle aged lady with some special needs kids and I'm headed for the soup pot. So this means what to me? I should run to the city and stop growing food and quit having any fun? Not a chance! I drink really good wine that I make and sleep in when the snow falls and make love in the afternoon and catch fireflies with the kids. You guys really need to get a clue. I'm not meaning to be rude but the focus on the hoards is a distraction from the reality of what a decline in energy really means to people.kathyhttp://www.justincasebook.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-78754986809633471912010-04-07T09:59:54.829-07:002010-04-07T09:59:54.829-07:00Yeah .... horses. :)Yeah .... horses. :)bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-41894117569564540542010-04-07T09:53:23.607-07:002010-04-07T09:53:23.607-07:00BTW, Mark Mills, one of the co-authors of "Th...BTW, Mark Mills, one of the co-authors of "The Bottomless Well," has changed his tune about Peak Oil:<br /><br />http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/05/transocean-schlumberger-crude-oil-intelligent-investing-mark-mills.html<br /><br />In 2005, they argued that our total energy consumption will increase forever. At some distant point, conventional + unconventional oil production would hit a plateau, but we would easily and seamlessly transition to other forms of energy.westexashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13648669299354997219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-9316018199905656062010-04-07T09:30:38.349-07:002010-04-07T09:30:38.349-07:00Re: Campbell
I suspect that he is focusing too ...Re: Campbell <br /><br />I suspect that he is focusing too much on the US and other OECD Countries, but in any case time will tell.<br /><br />Re: Abundant crude oil inventories* <br />(*Approximately five days of supply in excess of MOL)<br /><br />If and when we hit an average annual oil price of $200, I expect that we will have also have a few days of supply of crude oil in excess of MOL, because a price level of $200 was necessary to balance supply & demand. <br /><br />The question is why is it necessary to have an annual oil price to date for 2010 that is higher than all previous annual oil prices, except for 2010, in order to balance supply & demand?westexashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13648669299354997219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-75369287984441668952010-04-07T09:20:25.290-07:002010-04-07T09:20:25.290-07:00Peak Oil-famous Colin Campbell no longer believes ...Peak Oil-famous Colin Campbell no longer believes in the "peak oil price surge" (from Reuters) -- what I've been saying for months ...<br /><br />BALLYDEHOB, Ireland -- The economic shock of global recession has led a prime exponent of the theory conventional oil output has peaked to shift his view of the consequences, but he still thinks the world has to go green.<br /><br />Retired petroleum geologist Colin Campbell, who worked for major oil companies as well as smaller firms, has long been associated with the belief the world's oil supplies are dwindling.<br /><br />He does not waver from that and dismisses the argument of the so-called optimists that technology will manage to keep eking out more and more oil to keep pace with rising demand.<br /><br />What has changed is his opinion of the price impact and implications for fuel consumption after the spike of July 2008 to nearly $150 a barrel was followed by world economic recession, a deep drop in fuel use and a crash in oil futures to just above $30 in December 2008.<br /><br />"I have changed my point of view about future prices," said Campbell, who used to think the peak in conventional oil production, which he believes happened in 2005, would lead to a relentless price surge.<br />Instead, the record rally led to a peak in demand in the developed world.<br /><br />"Peak oil drives prices up in the first place. It has its own mechanism. We're sort of at peak demand right now," Campbell told Reuters from his home in the village of Ballydehob, West Cork. "I think presently the price limit is about $100."bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-14552460557231140362010-04-07T09:17:29.482-07:002010-04-07T09:17:29.482-07:00@Dextred1
"I can't see much function with...@Dextred1<br /><i>"I can't see much function with gas at 12 dollars a gallon or you just pointing out the mathematical ratio inherent in the numbers."</i><br />Europe seems to be doing ok. Granted we're talking apples to oranges in relation to how the U.S. economy and geography is made up but people adapt. See bureaucrat's comment on April 6, 2010 @ 12:54PM<br /><br /><i>"People might adjust, but hundreds of thousands of small family businesses will go out of business."</i><br />In the short run we agree but I think in the long run things would start to pick up. One of the options we have been kicking around whenever we have 'free time' is to buy a press and try out some of the stuff like <a href="http://www.oilcrusher.5u.com/" rel="nofollow">Dan McAmoil</a> has been doing. If you really believe in peak oil and your business is that dependent on fuel why aren't you looking at viable (IOW realistic) alternative <b>now</b>? My business is not dependent on oil being that cheap and I could live without it here on the farm although it would be difficult but doable.<br /><br />@Greg<br /><i>"I enjoy a documentary, or a good movie, but if I have to deal with advertisements or the other silly BS, I tune out immediately."</i><br />Documentary...like 300 ;)<br /><br /><i>"Small cattle are easier on your pastures... especially in winter."</i><br />Indeed, we currently have goats, sheep, chickens and turkeys at our casa. We only run smaller animals for a few reasons but your above quote was one.<br /><br />@bureaucrat<br /><i>"If I'm hungry, and a few million people are hungry too, and Farmer Brown is growing rutabegas for his family, we go to Farmer Brown's farm, kill Farmer Brown and his family, and take the rutabegas."</i><br />Maybe people like you but I think situations like Katrina show many people will just sit around and wait and feed off the small subset of people in the city. 'Hey I know those Mormon's keep food stockpiled and one lives down the street.'Josephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00149521091614552325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-32074666370895808692010-04-07T09:14:06.355-07:002010-04-07T09:14:06.355-07:00Some recent comments by Jeff Rubin:
http://www.th...Some recent comments by Jeff Rubin:<br /><br />http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/looking-for-oil-demand-in-all-the-wrong-places/article1494934/<br />Looking for oil demand in all the wrong places<br /><br />"Exactly why oil traders and speculators think the (US inventory) data has anything to do with the state of world oil demand is beyond me. I suppose, like Pavlov’s dog, they’re only doing what they’re trained to do. But their training comes from a world that no longer exists.<br /><br />"While the U.S. oil inventories data pertains to the largest oil-consuming nation on the planet, it is no more indicative of world demand than U.S. oil production numbers are indicative of world supply. Both are in terminal and irreversible decline."westexashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13648669299354997219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-59298311829893494492010-04-07T08:30:27.831-07:002010-04-07T08:30:27.831-07:00Hmm, looks like I fluffed one of my mental calcula...Hmm, looks like I fluffed one of my mental calculations... in fact it might have been close to $9.50/US gallon in the UK in mid-2008! So maybe $10/US gallon has been the case in the past, then. More of an outlier than the general rule, though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-32885211172027183762010-04-07T08:22:30.076-07:002010-04-07T08:22:30.076-07:00Just a pedantic note about European fuel prices. I...Just a pedantic note about European fuel prices. I've seen the "$10/US gallon" figure bandied about on occasion, but in fact it's not (quite) at that level and I don't think it ever has been. $10/US gallon is terribly, terribly expensive. That would be £1.73/litre, or EU1.97/litre.<br /><br />Today, £1.25/litre for diesel might be seen in smaller towns or motorway service stations. £1.18-1.20/litre is more likely in populous areas. Google says that "1.25 british pounds per litre in dollars per us gallon" is ~$7.22.<br /><br />(I found some Europewide prices here: http://www.theaa.com/motoring_advice/fuel/. Looks you don't even pay $10/US gallon for petrol in Norway.)<br /><br />I doubt $10/US gallon would go down any better in Europe than it would in the US... people weren't even happy when it was $5/US gallon...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-43776885242929222142010-04-07T07:58:57.532-07:002010-04-07T07:58:57.532-07:00Still awash in energy ...
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWa...Still awash in energy ...<br /><br />SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures accelerated its losses following an inventory report that showed a larger-than-expected increase in crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday an increase in crude-oil stockpiles by 2 million barrels in the week ending April 2, while analysts polled by Platts expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels. Crude oil for May delivery lost 40 cents to $86.44 a barrel, modestly adding to earlier losses following the report. The EIA also reported a decrease in gasoline inventories by 2.5 million, while analysts had projected a decline of 1 million barrels. The agency reported an increase in distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, by 1.1 million barrels, while analysts expected a drop of 1.5 million barrelsbureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-87122733354330436902010-04-07T03:13:27.494-07:002010-04-07T03:13:27.494-07:00I think that beyond increased crime, there will ce...I think that beyond increased crime, there will certainly NOT be hordes of city folks attacking farms such as the old 70's film "Deadly Harvest".<br /><br />Crime rates will go up in the city and the country as times get tougher. This City vs. The Country argument has been played out many times, there are pro's and Cons to both places and ultimately its a choice between jobs/convenience and setting/freedoms. Clearly, if things ever get horrible as some suggest--neither setting will be good.<br /><br />If lowering our trade deficit means, our economy shrinking then I don't really see sending less paper abroad as really that good a thing for the US. Sending people entertainment and our paper money hasn't been that bad a deal as we ate up the Lion's share of the cheap oil in previous decades--but like many families instead of being more frugal as a nation, we squandered it on mostly shit we don't need--at interest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-72639574752522534612010-04-06T18:08:47.310-07:002010-04-06T18:08:47.310-07:00Bur,
If it gets that bad, which I do not think it...Bur,<br /><br />If it gets that bad, which I do not think it will, then much of the horde will be dead before they get here.<br /><br />They will be armed and hungry and that will make them dangerous. Unfortunately, some with food would be killed and their stuff pillaged.<br /><br />However, a town like mine, and there are thousands of them, will be better prepared and banded together. Most likely by the time a horde gets here it will be armed but starved and we would be able to defend ourselves.<br /><br />If it gets so bad that we are fighting amongst ourselves here then I'd rather be dead anyway.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11538147109007226573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-23122412877770975582010-04-06T15:45:38.526-07:002010-04-06T15:45:38.526-07:00The reason I disagree with you is because even if ...The reason I disagree with you is because even if the wheels fall off people still get up the next day. They might be much poorer, more hungry and maybe mad. You are telling me that people that were to lazy to provide for themselves are going to take action and go get food. Yeah right. Even if they did the food production then would plummet and everyone would starve. In stressful situtions people do not work together. Not to mention that my point was that Detroit is the future. That is what the best city’s will look like. That is what Chicago will look like. I have a friend from the west we can go visit I am sure you would love it. Bars on windows and literally sleeps with a loaded gun. It is not a matter of black or white but what shade of gray. It will be a slow decline I hope. When people hear that farmers are shooting people for stealing food. I think they will notice this real quick. As for you in the city's Soylent Green anyone!!!Dextred1https://www.blogger.com/profile/10295971877800381681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-8870709077883474142010-04-06T15:28:13.396-07:002010-04-06T15:28:13.396-07:00Good comments on here thanks all I enjoyed them.
...Good comments on here thanks all I enjoyed them.<br /><br />As for the half sized or mini cattle they eat less, can put more per acre, actually dress out to more overall percentage used and cost just as much per head as a full sized cow.<br /><br />Or at least around here they are.<br /><br />I been looking at the Dexter breed as it reportedly gives excellent milk (ok don't milk the bull like Bureacrat would) Joke BTW, and also produce top quality meat.<br /><br />I am hoping to start with a few this fall maybe.PioneerPreppyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09269878017447335944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-14416327565161749162010-04-06T14:36:35.614-07:002010-04-06T14:36:35.614-07:00Farms + hungry people = no rest for people thinkin...Farms + hungry people = no rest for people thinking their "guns" are gonna protect them or their farms. If I'm hungry, and a few million people are hungry too, and Farmer Brown is growing rutabegas for his family, we go to Farmer Brown's farm, kill Farmer Brown and his family, and take the rutabegas. People who think guns will protect them are deluding themselves. I can get guns too. We have 300 million guns in the U.S. I'll take my chances in inner Chicago. :)bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-89366053205865966462010-04-06T14:24:32.525-07:002010-04-06T14:24:32.525-07:00Bur
Us "dopes" that don't live in t...Bur<br /><br />Us "dopes" that don't live in town have more freedom, land and the best part guns. As Hank Williams Jr said <br /><br />"I live back in the woods, you see<br />A woman and the kids, and the dogs and me<br />I got a shotgun rifle and a 4-wheel drive<br />And a country boy can survive<br />Country folks can survive<br /><br />I can plow a field all day long<br />I can catch catfish from dusk till dawn<br />We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too<br />Ain’t too many things these ole boys can’t do<br />We grow good ole tomatoes and homemade wine<br />And a country boy can survive<br />Country folks can survive"<br />(done every thing one list but grow my own smoke):)<br /><br />No if you are talking about the mcmansions around these towns, they will have trouble paying for them. The great thing about the sustem is that if you can't afford the house it gets forclosed someone else buys it. The great thing is they get it for 50% or 60%percent off the old price. This keeps debt payments down which in turn gives you more money to drive to town. The thing is that most of these "dopes" are by food supplys. Also dont have to let their kids grow up in some s**thole of a town with drugs, gangs and general lack in the meaning of life. Let Knuslter keep the righteous indignation at other people that do excalty what he does{live in the same small towns he blasts as suburban wastelands}. I live outside of Ann Arbor which is a commuter town for Detroit and the suburbs and I have been to Detroit 100 times or more. It Sucks, It is already dead. My Grandpa drove food to the national guards during the riots. That is when all my family moved from. Detroit to Redford, to canton then to Dexter and Chealsea. I have seen this process play out. You are descibing Detroit and you won't want to live there. The don't even patrol half of the streets because of lack of money.Dextred1https://www.blogger.com/profile/10295971877800381681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-29080643990576623042010-04-06T12:54:01.380-07:002010-04-06T12:54:01.380-07:00If you prefer "abudant" to "no shor...If you prefer "abudant" to "no shortage," that's fine by me. :)<br /><br />There is no way the $200+ per barrel costs will stick. I've heard Matt Simmons and his "Oil is 10 cents a cup .. it's CHEAP " speech three dozen times. He also said in March of '09 there was going to be a shock to the oil system within a year. Didn't happen. We can't be right all the time. :)<br /><br />I do know that the world economy will never support, in its current form, gasoline/diesel prices over $5 for long. We are NOT Europe (where it is the equivalent of $10/gallon). Europe is tiny, and has lots of railroads. The U.S. has lots of land to cover, especially the dopes who bought houses in the middle of nowhere and have to drive all day.<br /><br />The solution to high prices is high prices. <br /><br />If oil/gasoline/diesel/heating oil/natural gas prices get too high, people can't affrd them and demand is reduced from the population and the economy. When demand drops, you don't need as much oil product, and so prices drop because the oil product businesses need cash coming in for their fixed costs. There is a natural ceiling to energy prices. You may suffer, but if you have no choice ....<br /><br />When the summer is over, we'll see how fast gasoline prices drop. Given supply is "abundant" (better Jeffers word), my guess is they'll drop plenty. If not, we'll know we have a oil supply situation starting to emerge.bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-62715107628285800832010-04-06T12:01:47.138-07:002010-04-06T12:01:47.138-07:00Great post, you are becoming quite relaxed in your...Great post, you are becoming quite relaxed in your (older) age. <br />You growing some trees on that farm as well as livestock? : p<br /><br />One of my favorite quotes is "nature never hurries and yet everything is accomplished".oOOohttp://www.derestricted.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-72950337141724208752010-04-06T10:50:38.368-07:002010-04-06T10:50:38.368-07:00They seem to be a good investment compared the lar...They seem to be a good investment compared the larger breeds. I only have 5 acres so need a small breed. Only problem is buying the first few. Price range is very high compared to the free or low cost full size breeds. Once you get them breeding you are all good.Dextred1https://www.blogger.com/profile/10295971877800381681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-57345245442200943132010-04-06T10:47:23.687-07:002010-04-06T10:47:23.687-07:00Ok that makes sense. I would think that this woul...Ok that makes sense. I would think that this would lead to much smaller and cheaper cars. I have two dump trucks and 4 pieces of heavy machinery. This would probably cause most of my work to be out of the price range for the customers that I work for. I mostly do driveways and patios and 90% of the jobs I get are slim profit margin variety. It literally cost 10o dollars a day for fuel on a close job. I have no pricing power because of economic situation. People might adjust, but hundreds of thousands of small family businesses will go out of business. I am just lucky every piece of equipment is paided off. Just checked the yellowbook and about 2/3 of my competitors are no longer advertising. Deflation is the song of the day.Dextred1https://www.blogger.com/profile/10295971877800381681noreply@blogger.com