tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post4036062263483350035..comments2023-10-14T08:23:14.641-07:00Comments on The American Energy Crisis: Obama's Release of Oil from the SPRA Quaker in a Strange Landhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-58512844346504559602011-10-18T02:04:25.883-07:002011-10-18T02:04:25.883-07:00n the long term they want prices high so that any ...n the long term they want prices high so that any alternative technologies that might be dreamed up have less of a competitive hurdle.<a href="http://buytalalaylatex.com/memory-foam-mattress-topper/" rel="nofollow">memory foam mattress topper</a>Ridahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02405619882350094230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-5964727125904921362011-09-12T21:52:55.636-07:002011-09-12T21:52:55.636-07:00Releasing oil from the SPR not a bad idea.Releasing oil from the SPR not a bad idea.dennis the menancehttp://www.manhattansgreatest.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-68244317990028519432011-06-25T11:25:58.416-07:002011-06-25T11:25:58.416-07:00Pioneer:
I am rooting for item 3, too... but I do...Pioneer:<br /><br />I am rooting for item 3, too... but I don't think this outcome needs our help... this is unfolding as we speak, and will continue to do so at its own pace. We need do nothing drastic. Just enjoy the view.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-64338566848180568362011-06-25T08:12:25.663-07:002011-06-25T08:12:25.663-07:00A couple of links:
Commercial crude inventories i...A couple of links:<br /><br />Commercial crude inventories in the US are fine, but the WSJ reported that commercial crude inventories in Europe are at five year lows:<br /><br />http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303339904576403570929000178.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0<br />World Oil Reserves Tapped<br /><br />Excerpt:<br /><br />"The loss of Libyan crude, which is light and sweet and has proved difficult to replace, has led to tightness in oil markets, especially in Europe, Libya's main market. European commercial crude stocks are now at five-year lows."<br /><br />And a related article:<br /><br />http://www.investingdaily.com/pf/18805/oil-and-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-prices-are-headed-higher.html<br />Oil and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Prices are Headed Higher<br /><br />Excerpt:<br /><br />"The move to release oil from the SPR is a tacit admission that the speculation argument is rubbish. After all, if the rally in oil is all about speculators and the world is truly awash in oil, then adding an additional 2 million barrels per day to that supply won't help the situation. It doesn't make sense to argue that this move is necessary to offset disruptions to Libyan oil exports, while also arguing that supply and demand have nothing to do with oil prices. . . <br /><br />The oil market is tighter globally than anyone wants to admit. In the IEA's most recent Oil Market Report (OMR), the agency predicted that global oil demand in 2011 will rise by 1.3 million barrels day compared to 2010 levels--that's on top of an increase of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2010. . . To make matters worse, we're entering a seasonally strong period for demand. The IEA stated that global oil demand will increase by 1 million barrels per day between the second and third quarters of this year alone. This is due to the seasonal ramp in supplies that coincides with the summer driving season in the Northern Hemisphere. Projections from the IEA and the US Energy Information Administration showed that without much additional OPEC supplies, global commercial oil inventories would decline sharply through the summer amid the ramp-up in demand. Global oil inventories would have thinned substantially by the fourth quarter. . . <br /><br />In short, the decision to release 60 million barrels of oil from global SPRs partly a political move designed to bring down oil prices ahead of the summer driving season. That may work over the next few weeks. But the more important point is that it reflects how tight the global oil market has become and that meeting global oil demand growth will require an unacceptable decline in global spare capacity."westexashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13648669299354997219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-87158891399136407922011-06-25T08:10:09.849-07:002011-06-25T08:10:09.849-07:00It looks like there are some real supply issues in...It looks like there are some real supply issues in Europe, because of the disruption in Libyan oil exports, and I think that the IEA was definitely worried about the fourth quarter. Basically, I think that there was a real concern that there would not be sufficient supplies to meet demand--at current prices, i.e., we would have to see continued price increases to balance flat to declining global net exports against demand. In other words, we would have to have a higher price in order to kill off more demand, and the OECD countries don't want to see higher prices. <br /><br />In addition, if we compounded rising prices with the markets' acknowledgement that the Saudis probably can't materially increase their net oil exports, at least their exports of light/sweet crude, it would result in "interesting" times in the second half of the year. <br /><br />I wonder if Saudi Arabia might be the key to this whole thing. My initial impression was that the release of emergency supplies was a vote of no confidence from the IEA regarding Saudi Arabia's ability to increase net oil exports, and that may be the case, but it also occurred to me that the release of emergency supplies may allow Saudi Arabia to claim that additional Saudi oil is not needed, given the release of emergency supplies. If Saudi Arabia can't materially increase their exports of oil, especially light/sweet oil, then the release of emergency supplies would be a very convenient fig leaf for them.<br /><br />Note that the five year numbers for Saudi Arabia don't look good regarding their future net export capacity. Their consumption to production ratio (C/P) rose from 18% in 2005 to 28% in 2010 (BP). At this rate of increase in the C/P ratio, they would approach a 100% C/P ratio (and thus zero net oil exports) in only 14 years, around 2024. <br /><br />I am somewhat surprised that the BP data base showed another year over year decline in Saudi net oil exports, from 7.3 mbpd in 2009 to 7.2 mbpd in 2010 (versus 9.1 mbpd in 2005). It makes one wonder just how much of the 2009 decline in Saudi net oil exports was truly "voluntary." Note that Saudi Arabia has shown year over year declines in net oil exports for four of the past five years. westexashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13648669299354997219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-26323324078950825922011-06-25T08:00:42.367-07:002011-06-25T08:00:42.367-07:00If it for the election it is premature thats for s...If it for the election it is premature thats for sure. Less than two days supply will be gobbled up and forgotten about in a month.<br /><br />Personally I am cheering for Greg's number 3!!!PioneerPreppyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09269878017447335944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-13155673649963813212011-06-25T06:15:54.762-07:002011-06-25T06:15:54.762-07:00Wall Street Journal had it on the front page yeste...Wall Street Journal had it on the front page yesterday.<br /><br />Clearly this is timed for the next election.<br /><br />http://reflexionesfinales.blogspot.com/2011/06/first-time-they-dipped-into-reserves.html<br /><br />In the long term they want prices high so that any alternative technologies that might be dreamed up have less of a competitive hurdle. A lot of momentum on oil substitution from the 1970s-1980s was lost when prices came back down.russell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.com