tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post2951607741193731174..comments2023-10-14T08:23:14.641-07:00Comments on The American Energy Crisis: Past TenseA Quaker in a Strange Landhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-7392897311094739362009-03-02T11:57:00.000-08:002009-03-02T11:57:00.000-08:00Where's J P Morgan when you need him?Where's J P Morgan when you need him?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-53409390319766481822009-03-02T06:58:00.000-08:002009-03-02T06:58:00.000-08:00There ain't gonna be any major wars. Who are the ...There ain't gonna be any major wars. Who are the aggressors? Even Hitler built up Germany for 10 years before he tried anything. Who would be doing that now? Wars aren't so easy. :)bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-31027146034796353332009-03-02T06:33:00.000-08:002009-03-02T06:33:00.000-08:00What you suggest is a logical conclusion.But there...What you suggest is a logical conclusion.<BR/><BR/>But there's also the possibility of a black swan event.<BR/><BR/>Too many variables. What happens in the event of a major war?<BR/><BR/>Etc.Unrepentantcowboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16348152020479469764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-80676308241250465962009-03-01T12:02:00.000-08:002009-03-01T12:02:00.000-08:00Also, Oil production has NOT peaked, and my bet is...Also, Oil production has NOT peaked, and my bet is it will be a few years before that matters. <BR/><BR/>This is actually VERY good news, unless one was hoping for mass hunger and political unrest. The steep recession we are experiencing MIGHT (I said MIGHT) give us enough time to make the policy adjustments we will need to make.<BR/><BR/>The bigger issues for the moment, is the financial system - and that CAN be solved. Energy, in the long run, can only be lived with.<BR/><BR/>Of course, I could be completely wrong, but that is how I am playing MY hand at the moment.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-1286950304840447282009-03-01T11:56:00.000-08:002009-03-01T11:56:00.000-08:00For your scenario to come to pass, the world econo...For your scenario to come to pass, the world economic system must go into terminal defaltion, and then wink out of existence. <BR/><BR/>That is not possible in NOMINAL terms in a world in which the largest economy is going to consume 50% of the world's reserve currency in 2 years.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-62545262784226498372009-03-01T07:37:00.000-08:002009-03-01T07:37:00.000-08:00I can see that you will probably get a pause in th...I can see that you will probably get a pause in the down trend, because other analysts will take the same path and respond to the 'buy' signals that the analysis indicates.<BR/><BR/>But if we've learned anything so far, real economics will out. To find a floor there has to be a recognisable value. That value is either trading/profit multiple, or asset value. If almost all businesses are declining and unemployment is rising fast, where is the profit multiple going to be? And if asset values are 'valued to market', where will those values be? <BR/><BR/>There's no export market, a falling internal retail market, a collapsing banking sector and world oil production is declining. Bear in mind, Japan has just run into a wall, and seen a 60% fall in exports in the last quarter! <BR/><BR/>I think values will fall, pause, then fall again. I don't see what can stop them. I don't see a floor.<BR/><BR/>But I'll be happy if you can convince me otherwise!Donal Langhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03421610061804732275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-8987734093718341542009-03-01T04:55:00.000-08:002009-03-01T04:55:00.000-08:00For the Dow I took JPM, C, BAC and GE to ZERO, and...For the Dow I took JPM, C, BAC and GE to ZERO, and discounted a little further for good measure and arrived at 6000.<BR/><BR/>For the S&P which is market weighted, I took the financials to certain number to reflect the big four failure, and then applied a 6% weighting for the financial sector at that level, meaning the remaining must be worth 94% and came up with 650.<BR/><BR/>If the market realizes what the Fed and Treasury will have to do, the market will actually RALLY sooner (IMBO). Remember, big time monetary inflation is good for stock prices...<BR/><BR/>Of course, I could be wrong. If something in the data changes I will change my mind too...A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-78882399358246033112009-03-01T00:21:00.000-08:002009-03-01T00:21:00.000-08:00I don't often disagree with you Greg, but I just d...I don't often disagree with you Greg, but I just don't see what would constitute a 'bottom'. So far we've seen a leftover of retail sales as shops destock, and stimulus funding keeping jobs in the auto and other industries, and municipalities getting deeper into debt rather than sacking people. Once all that runs out of money we'll enter the next turn of the spiral down; auto-industry, public sector and retail layoffs, and the consequent drop in property values again. <BR/>If the real economy is going down, and companies can't borrow any more (or even re-finance existing debt because the states have sucked up any spare money), what is it that you think will constitute a 'bottom'?Donal Langhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03421610061804732275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-89334768125404951542009-02-28T11:51:00.000-08:002009-02-28T11:51:00.000-08:00My bet is less than a year, and my friend the Mad ...My bet is less than a year, and my friend the Mad Scientist thinks 90 to 180 days.<BR/><BR/>Please read the numbers again: $3 TRILLION in just 2 years... don't worry about granite countertops and flat screen TV's, they just don't add up to the $3T.<BR/><BR/>I like to let it all hang out. There is no other source of capital. The mathematical facts are what they are. I provided you with the link to the world's forex reserves, and the link to the U.S. budget deficit. This is not an "indeterminate equation".A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-34296249650208552172009-02-28T07:25:00.000-08:002009-02-28T07:25:00.000-08:00Yeah, that's the big "if" ... when will it turn? ...Yeah, that's the big "if" ... when will it turn? Mr. Shedlock would say that this could go on for some time .. perhaps years ...because we still aren't willing to look at the generational and fundamental shifts in thinking that may be taking place. People are going to borrow less and spend less. No more granite countertops. The kids of the boomers are going to see what this will do to the confidence of their over-confident parents, and the kids will become the "children of the 1930s and 1940s," drastically lowering their expectations for their entire lives. We also have 30 years worth of higher interest rates coming (1950-1980: up; 1980-2010: down; 2010-2040: up) which can't help, and since deflations really can't be fought with anything other than time and bankruptcies (and Obama and his gang won't allow those), the "turn" the financial community is begging for may not come for some time. Mr. Schiff, however, thinks it will happen yesterday. :)bureaucrathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03869739125758038029noreply@blogger.com