tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post1602946823675941075..comments2023-10-14T08:23:14.641-07:00Comments on The American Energy Crisis: "OPEC" is Done, and We are Really Going to Miss ThemA Quaker in a Strange Landhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-40524780420586260502016-10-19T00:41:27.501-07:002016-10-19T00:41:27.501-07:00Very nice post as commodities traded over the exch...Very nice post as commodities traded over the exchange in derivative have impact of various international events like datas about crude oil production from OPEC it is also important to focus on technical aspect of particular securities on which we focus. for stock, commodity tips <a href="https://www.ways2capital.com/equity-tips.php" rel="nofollow">Equity tips</a> <a href="http://www.ways2capital.com/mcx-tips.php" rel="nofollow">MCX tips</a> <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13988253962294260381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-25076514937906065212015-01-24T03:08:33.631-08:002015-01-24T03:08:33.631-08:00oil would continue to track world prices. When th...oil would continue to track world prices. When the prices diverged, tankers would move to fix the difference (how markets work). You don't need a constant high traffic of incoming oil, just the threat of it. That's how markets work. For that matter, even if the US became a big net exporter, the price in the US would still be world price. [I'm ignoring small differences of a couple percent for shipping differentials around the world.]<br /><br />Now, the export restriction does have an impact on the price achieved here (basically making this place a contained market). It depresses the price of light crude because we have more than we can efficiently use (and the world has less than it can efficiently use). But trade barriers create these sorts of things. It's even more extreme for condensate (ultralight oil) than for WTI (light oil). Condensate in Asia gets about $5 more than light sweet. But in the US, condensate gets as $5-10 less than WTI. The problem occurs because US refineries are more complicated and work better (in terms of the value delivered) on "difficult" heavy sour crude. Whereas a lot of the world, especially Asia has more primitive, simple refineries that work better with the "easy" light crude.<br /><br />For natural gas, there will ALWAYS be big differences in price because it costs a lot of money to compress and cool gas and ship it in special pressure vessel, cooled container ships. Unless you can build a pipeline across the ocean. Even the expensive facilities for shipping take a long time to get built and don't exist yet. But even after they get built, a big differential will remain.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-7109768500214395402015-01-17T13:49:21.461-08:002015-01-17T13:49:21.461-08:00Oil prices will diverge if oil cannot be easily tr...Oil prices will diverge if oil cannot be easily traded across the oceans. We certainly have seen that with natural gas and why is that? Natural gas is very bulky and even with liquification, the liquification plants, the ships, and regasification plants cost $$$, are difficult to site in the US due to safety fears,and so on.<br /><br />Oil, meanwhile has plentiful ports, pumps simply, and there are lots of ships that can move the stuff.<br /><br />I guess the question becomes one of asking just how long all those oil terminals and crude carriers remain available for use/lease when the demand isn't there for their day to day use? That is, if all that crude shipping infrastructure goes away, then sure, oil starts to diverge, but how much arbitrage opportunity will continue to exist across the continents? Will it be enough to maintain some decent percentage of the present crude shipment infrastructure? <br /><br />Stephen B.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-28133169456089742222015-01-17T10:12:36.894-08:002015-01-17T10:12:36.894-08:00Dear Anon:
My sense of it all is that this merely...Dear Anon:<br /><br />My sense of it all is that this merely a very rough but typical cycle.<br /><br />I would bet on higher prices far sooner than the "many years of low prices" crowd.<br /><br />Everybody seems to agree that prices will be low for an extended period. I have never seen a market in the commodity space where "<br />everybody" was right. Ever.<br /><br />Maybe this will be the first... stranger things have happened... but I am a betting man, and I am betting against that.<br />A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-45015693910258896742015-01-17T09:38:48.135-08:002015-01-17T09:38:48.135-08:00I was under the impression that Mexico would be a ...I was under the impression that Mexico would be a net importer very soon. Haven't seen any updated numbers lately though. Spoke with my brother up near Youngstown ,Ohio,looks like if the down ward in oil prices continues, the oil pipe builders are up the creek, and soon. No more ads for the big frack boom either. Seems they are planning to wrap it up in expansion at least. PeaceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-14888435430169377442015-01-17T05:41:53.081-08:002015-01-17T05:41:53.081-08:00PP:
Here is the link to the EIA data on domestic ...PP:<br /><br />Here is the link to the EIA data on domestic production and imports:<br /><br />http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf<br /><br />Imports fell from nearly 13 mbpd to a 5 handle - 5.x mbpd.<br /><br />Domestic production increased 4.5 to 5 mbpd, and ethanol increased 900k bpd.<br /><br />But of that 5.x million imports into the U.S., half came from Canada & Mexico.<br /><br />Please keep in mind I was talking about North America (US, Canada, Mexico).<br /><br />Rest of World ex-North America is down 2.5 mbpd since June 2010. North America is +4.5 mbpd.<br /><br />"IF" those trends hold, NA is Oil independent in short order.<br /><br />At some point thereafter Crude Oil would trade much like Nat Gas does - wildly.<br /><br />Or at least I think so... I reserve the right to be wrong!A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99704500378481622.post-35758471762994144412015-01-16T19:46:35.820-08:002015-01-16T19:46:35.820-08:00Correct me if I am wrong here because I am going o...Correct me if I am wrong here because I am going on second hand data and cannot even remember the source but I was under the impression that even with all the various tight oil plays etc. N. America had still only increased the overall supply by a few percentage points and was still a long way from oil independence.<br /><br />That was also taking into account the continual down trend in domestic usage too. Eventually if the use continues to fall the whole house of cards comes down anyway.<br />PioneerPreppyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09269878017447335944noreply@blogger.com