Thursday, June 30, 2011

Moving

I am going to be Blogging at libertariananimal.blogspot.com for the most part. I will continue to comment on the energy situation here in the West, and in the U.S. in particular... but I am going to really pull apart the political implications of our energy conundrum, deficit, military budgets, social programs, et al... and take a hard run at my Talk Radio and documentary idea. We are at a cusp here on so many issues. I love my country and I LOVE being an American... I am not looking for votes and I am not looking for money... but I am looking for something. Soon as I figure out what that is, I will let you know.

Posts have been light of late as I have had bronchitis for the past month or so... and that hasn't helped the speaking efforts needed for a regular talk radio segment, either.  Please bear with me. I have been prescribed "gorillacylin", after the run of the mill stuff did not do the trick, and hope to be full of piss and vinegar in short order.

Greg Jeffers
Libertarian Animal

The Wisdom of the Masses

Nearly 40% of Americans believe that the American economy is in permanent decline.

That's only because the other 60% is still employed an unaware of America's energy predicament.  And there is no macro solution (IMHO). I have been writing this blog for 5 years or so, and have been noodling this since 2000, and no matter how I move the parts around I don't see any outcome where significant parts of systems that many, many people rely on for their physical and mental well being will not fail.

The pension system? Kaput. Banking? Sunk. Budgets for social services? Glug glug glug... as the water rises around them. Infrastructure? Ka-BOOM! Recreational doomers will take no solace in this, it could take a decade or 2...

I don't know the rate of change... for the people whose financial lives have already collapsed, I don't think it matters a wit - and there are millions of them.

And I don't blame our political leaders... they were set up in all of this by phenomenon beyond their control and blown this way and that by the Zeitgeist. The myriad unintended consequences of the explosion in energy use, ingenuity, population growth and innovation were just too difficult to see past. Assumptions were made, and then those that espoused the assumptions received "qualifications" from our establishment institutions further reinforcing these assumptions... and now we know, or suspect, that those assumptions are all wrong... but too late. We are here. And does not matter if "Peak Oil" is here for the world or if its 10 years away... Peak Oil is here for the U.S... and its not the "end of the world" but it does make operating within the financial economy very difficult for a large portion of the population.

How that is addressed is anybody's guess...

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This is a must read from Stuart Staniford.

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Monday, June 27, 2011

In The News

Today's Libertarian Animal Radio Show.

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Who oversees the FBI? Who says this is OK?

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Former President Jimmy Carter had this to say on the 40th anniversary of War on Drugs.

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Liberal Congressman Barney Frank and Libertarian Republican Congressman Ron Paul have introduced legislation to end Federal Marijuana Laws in order to leave it up to the states. Frank just moved up from a complete ZERO in my book. This issue belongs to the states; 16 states have already legalized "medical marijuana". What the hell do we have "states" for if they cannot make this decision?  At wouldn't it be nice to be able to vote with your feet (move to states that see it your way).

Its either Libertarianism or Fascism.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Shale Gas in the News

The economics, or lack thereof, of Shale Gas plays is making its way into the news.''

Lots of serious folks on Wall Street felt this was the case, including yours truly. But no story makes its way into the MainStream Media without being bought and paid for.... and somebody was buying a great deal of space to convince the public and our officials of something many people, like me, thought was simply not the case.

The irony is that the economics would improve, and might even make sense, if the propaganda had not been so successful... or I might be all wet. This is just a suspicion of mine; just a watered down hypothesis. After all... The fact is that there is a great deal of Nat Gas in Shale plays... but it might be an economic sink, or worse, an energy sink. If it is an energy sink, it matters little how much gas exists in these plays... if an economic sink, higher Nat Gas prices will change the things somewhat.  Either way, Shale Gas ain't wearing a red cape and leaping over tall buildings to save the day for our industrial society - even if it makes some folks rich.

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Sometimes, problems present themselves for which there are NO SOLUTIONS. Af-Stan is just one of these.

War, as it existed for centuries, has been "won" killing everybody on the other side. Is this really a viable option for liberal democracies at this time in history? I absolutely loved hearing the president call it as it is... that we are not able to pacify all of Af-stan and that it is not possible to make Af-stan a "perfect place". Its sad, its horrible, its depressing... it is what it is... the world is not a perfect place. Best thing we can do?... We The People had best work on making sure that their issues don't spread here.

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Tongue firmly in cheek:

Congrats to the Gay Community of New York! Now, you too can have the government involved in your personal relationships. A bigger Congrats to the Divorce and Family Law Bar in New York, after all the rate of divorce for childless couples is much higher than for couples with children, and gays just don't that many children... you gotta love the sound of the cash register ringing with all those future divorce filings. Just what we all needed, more congestion in our Court systems... Patience... there will be some serious unintended consequences... Just wait.

What a non-issue. Rather than getting government out of the marriage business, you knuckleheads brought them in a little deeper. People should be able to enter into what contracts they wish to... We have made family law such a cluster f*** as it is... I can't imagine anyone wanting to engage in government sponsored divorce terrorism EXCEPT for those trying to provide a stable home for children... and as I mentioned above, you folks don't have a great many children... but Congrats!

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Obama's Release of Oil from the SPR

I needed to noodle the release of Oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a few days (and I have been under the weather... which tends to slow my noodling).  CNNMoney had this not too dumbed down article recently:

Four reasons are emerging for President Obama's surprise decision Thursday to release 30 million barrels of oil from the nation's strategic reserve -- economic stimulus; a looming supply shortage; a wake up call to OPEC; and a warning shot to speculators in the oil market.
I think that that line of reasoning is essentially correct... so lets take it apart one item at a time, but in reverse....

1. "A warning shot to speculators in the Oil market." Hmmmm..... This is so wrong on sooooo many levels... but OK, we live within a body politic filled with dingbats and dumbbells... true believers and complete deniers... wing nuts and fruit loops.... Here's my take:

Our command economy control freaks have undertaken an incredible effort to stimulate the economy (most of these efforts are doomed to fail or have a cost/benefit ratio f***ed up beyond recognition). Some of this attempt at command and control had some unintended consequences - just take a look at the US$ - and so the control freaks think they can micro manage aspects of their efforts to increase speculative activity that they find unappealing - even if there is only (and barely) circumstantial evidence that the original efforts to increase risk appetite were the driver behind Oil prices - by driving out speculators??  After all, energy was one of the worst performing sectors in the commodity markets... WhoTF is advising these people? Commodity trading is a Zero Sum Game. For every buyer there is an equal and opposite seller. The market price will ALWAYS get to equilibrium eventually via the supply/demand price discovery between producers and consumers. Reducing the number of trades in between Exxon and Mrs. Smith will absolutely, positively not change the AVERAGE outcome of price... it WILL, however, increase the volatility in the market price... which might have the unintended consequence of reducing risk taking at the Exploration and Production level.

Politically, these knuckleheads have been able to label "speculators" as the evil doers... so this might appeal to the non-thinking viewers of the likes of Oprah and Nancy Grace.

2. "A wake up call to OPEC". ROFL!!! OPEC is keenly aware of their precarious position - there ain't a damn thing they can do about it. IF, and its a BIG IF, OPEC has ANY spare capacity at the moment it almost assuredly is in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and KSA has already said they are going to increase production... my bet is that that was just propaganda... and we will know the truth soon enough.

I am quite sure that a "Wake up call to OPEC" was not part of the administrations thinking... or at least I hope not. While the ruling OPEC's elite might benefit from selling the West and the BRIC's their oil as fast as they possibly can... under NO CIRCUMSTANCE is this in the interests of the PEOPLE living in the OPEC countries. The West's ongoing War with Islam has been the predictable result, and the Arab Spring is just the latest chapter in this ongoing saga.

3. "A looming supply shortage". We need a definition for "shortage". There will be no shortage of $150, or $200, or $300 per barrel Oil... and no $100 per barrel Oil to be found. There will be no "shortages" unless governments attempt to ration by inconvenience.  If "rationing" occurs by price, the market will handle everything... now you might not like that; you might have to drive fewer miles and in a smaller car and live in a smaller dwelling and grow your own food and share bath water... amongst all manner of other adjustments. But you will adjust. The problem for the Federal, State and local governments is that this will simply destroy their budgets. The good news is that the "smaller government" folks are going to win by default without having to throw a single punch.

4. "Economic Stimulus". This is just too silly to even address. The amount of Oil in the SPR might, MIGHT, get these folks through the 2012 elections... and then what? Is our economy "stronger" by destroying contingency funds? "I fart in the general direction" of this one.

In the final analysis, this is just another cluster f*** coming out of the 2 Headed 1 Party (2H1P) Monster that has been eating us alive since the end of the Civil War... but the fat is gone, the muscle is gone, and the Monster is gnawing at the bone of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

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Peak Oil is unfolding pretty much on schedule. Peak Oil was never going to be an overnight kind of Tsunami thing-a-ma-jig.  Over the next 10 years the world will become a very, very different place... and over the next human lifetime things will be every bit as interesting as say, the 75 years from 1925 to 2000. The slow grind of Peak Oil simply will not enjoy a rate of change that will satisfy the recreational doomer. For thinking people, not to worry. Stick around. The end of growth and then outright contraction in Oil supply is going to put a rocket in the pocket of the economic/political environment. 

Thursday, June 23, 2011

"Forget the Alamo. Remember Vincent Hodgkiss"

I barely knew Vincent Hodgkiss. The fact that I knew him at all was one of the vagaries of life. The 3rd anniversary of his murder at the hands of the Pembroke Pines police, and the fact that all of people in on the murder were "cleared", has sent me into action.

I am producing a documentary about this killing, and will be airing it out on my blogtalkradio show, The Libertarian Animal.

I spent yesterday and today trying to speak by phone with the Mayor, Frank Ortis; the Chief of Police, Dan Giustino; and, the Administrative Law Judge for Florida's Broward County The Honorable Sharon Zeller. The Judge's administrative assistant has been playing telephone tag with me, but the Chief and the Mayor have yet to call me back.

I hope they will open their doors and answer some questions... I can assure them that I will be showing up, and soon, with a camera crew in tow.

I will be putting up a link shortly to my radio webcast on what I have come to find in the Hodgkiss Killing.

OMG!!!! Vindication!!!1

The IEA plans to release 60 million barrels from their Strategic Petroleum Reserves!!! What are they going to do? Release 30 million barrels every month until Libya is back to exporting?

ROFL!!!!!

This is the kind of silly sh*! that helps market's find bottoms.

On a more sinister note... there were absolutely no shortages in the market... this is political gambit of some sort designed to help somebody, somewhere, for whatever reason... there are NO COINCIDENCES in this world.

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Last month I went out for dinner with some of the other parents in my son's high school graduating class. The scotch, beer, and wine flowed... and we were telling war stories about speaking in public. My buddy topped my story of having to make presentations to the Board at BlueStone Capital when I worked for them in the late 1990's in New York...  A couple of times a year the board would assemble... consisting of, among others, 2 Noble Laureates and 1 former soft core porn star... Patricia Kluge, billionaire divorce of Paul Kluge, media titan.  Speaking intelligently enough for Laureates while still communicating well enough to the MONEY (Ms. Kluge... BlueStone was just another of her terrible investments) behind the firm would have been a terribly intimidating occasion had I been mature enough to realize that I was completely FOS. Since I was young and arrogant enough, I managed to muddle through... then my buddy tells me HIS story. He was invited to  speak to the graduating class at one of Harvard's professional schools... when he gets there, he finds there are 3 speakers: a name brand billionaire, the previous year's Noble Prize Winner in one of the real sciences (not like the economic and peace prizes ... something that can actually be measured) and him. Talk about stage fright.  Any time you think you've got a f***ed up situation on your hands... there is always somebody wading through deeper doodoo...

I forgot about our drunken conversation until today's report that the former Mrs. Kluge is now bankrupt. Money is a slippery M.F.  It is hard to come by and really easy to be rid of... particularly for people that think that they are somehow special, or who have no business in the shark tank. I remember watching my former senior partners milking this poor, retarded billionaire. It was just disgusting. A couple of times a year she would come to our offices and we would wine and dine her (on her dime)... We had 5th Avenue offices and marble floors and mahogany & teak conference tables... and every department - besides mine;  my area printed money, but when I demanded to be compensated I was told the firm was losing money - bled money from every orifice... I wonder if they are willing to help her out now. Just kidding. I feel the need to rinse my mouth out after mentioning the name of that enterprise.

Modesty AND honesty are the best policy.

Americans Weary of War?

The Philadelphia Inquirer had this to say this morning on the War in Af-Stan.

The writer made the incredible leap that Americans are "War Weary".

Really? I hope so. But weary of which War? The 10 year old war in Af-Stan? The 7 year old War in Iraq? The 40 YEAR OLD War on Drugs? The 50 YEAR OLD WAR between the sexes?

WTF happened to us? We seem to have forgotten how to cook good food, make love, and drink wine. To enjoy the seasons of our lives and revel in the buoyant surge of just being alive, rejecting that philosophy and instead tuning in to watch Nancy Grace bite the heads off of chickens and Gloria Alred display the latest victim of some "evil doer's" sexual conquest (I always wondered where the Male equivalent of Gloria has been hiding - after all, there are no shortage of gold digging, money grubbing, leaches among the fairer sex... marrying for money, divorcing for money... or divorcing for a lack of money... he could set up shop in Boca Raton... the supply of "Material Girls" is simply endless there... not a set of natural boobs in the place... Wait. That's not manipulation, is it?). We have forgotten ourselves and our humanity and have filled our prisons to overflowing with non-violent drug users... and have taken leave of our senses by rejecting the health and beauty of youth for an extra 50 pounds of body weight kept cool in an Air-Conditioned mirage of Television "Media Rooms", Barco loungers, and anti-depressents.

It is a complicated equation that landed us here: Vietnam x Gloria Steinem ÷ Billy Graham √ Jesse Jackson ∑ Charles Manson to the 3rd power of the prison/industrial, marriage/divorce, educational/student loan Industrial Complexes.... or something like that. The other side of the = sign contains even more bizarre data - far too disparate to recount here.

(Now, the only sensible people in the West when it comes to enjoying the fruit of our existence are under attack from Maureen Dowd & Co. I pray that the French and the othe Southern European nations do not crumble before the onslaught of the "The Angst of Empty Beds and Empty Wombs" (that quote is my own, and I place it in quotations as it is the title of a long essay I am writing). Anything for a perceived political gain, eh Maureen?)

America's "Make War, not Love" culture has put billions into the pockets of weapons manufacturers, Law Enforcement and Prison Budgets, Lawyers of all persuasions, Politicians, and a cadre of other miscreants... while most of our wineries are going bust. Clearly, something is wrong with that equation... what's that you say? I mentioned wine twice? Mai Oui! I like wine! (and great food, and great sex... what kind American am I?)

Are Americans really ready to Make Love not War? Not with Gloria Alred on duty.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

NAZI Coward Police Officer

This is not America. Yet another case of government agents SWORN to uphold and defend the U.S. Constitution... and then trampling on the spirit and letter of our founding document.

I pray that this officer's career is finished. Assaulting citizens under "color of authority" should result in a hefty prison sentence and a felony conviction. He is nothing but a coward and a piece of sh#!

The various State legislatures and the Courts had better wrap their collective minds around the new reality - cameras are EVERYWHERE.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Wars Cost Money?

Wow.


I gotta tell you how disappointing I found this... some how it was OK to kill innocent people with drone missiles and get American teenagers killed and maimed... but its not OK because war costs money?

I swear that it tastes like somebody just sh#! in my mouth.

Monday, June 20, 2011

"The First Casualty of War is Truth"

The EMU is unwinding, with Greece its first jettison.

The 20th Century will eventually be viewed as the Century of social/fiscal experimentation... with the conclusion being something we adults knew all along - there is no such thing as something for nothing. NOTHING is free, and anything free is NOTHING worth having. Unfortunately, this won't stop people in the future from believing in something for nothing or stopping others from trying to take advantage of people by promising them something for nothing.

I had a nice conversation with Stu Staniford of earlywarn.blogspot.com the other day. I share his view that a Greeek contagion slow down could spread to the other PIIGS... and drop European demand for Oil to its knees (it is my sense that that will be the time to buy Oil).

But I think the Greek thing is small potatoes when compared to the international Corn Crop and Demand picture.  In fact, a powerful recession in Europe might be helpful in taking pressure off of Food prices in addition to Oil prices.

Its all about the weather in the growing regions. World inventories of grains (outside of rice... rice is in pretty good shape at the moment) are at multi-decade lows. A weather catastrophe in a major producing region would be very, very interesting politically - even here in the U.S. If you think $5 gasoline is problematic for the 2012 election pols, try $10 per gallon milk.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Pre-Season Continues

Still practicing... but am putting together a "recording studio" in the farm basement... and with some equipment that should be here shortly, I hope to improve my game. (Libertarian commentary).

Thursday, June 16, 2011

The End of Enriched Uranium Reactors?

The situation in Japan's Fukushima provence is much worse than the world perceives.

The implications are mind boggling.


Dr Sawada says that the creation of nuclear fission generates radioactive materials for which there is simply no knowledge informing us how to dispose of the radioactive waste safely. 
"Until we know how to safely dispose of the radioactive materials generated by nuclear plants, we should postpone these activities so as not to cause further harm to future generations," he explained. "To do otherwise is simply an immoral act, and that is my belief, both as a scientist and as a survivor of the Hiroshima atomic bombing."
Gundersen believes it will take experts at least ten years to design and implement the plan.
"So ten to 15 years from now maybe we can say the reactors have been dismantled, and in the meantime you wind up contaminating the water," Gundersen said. "We are already seeing Strontium [at] 250 times the allowable limits in the water table at Fukushima. Contaminated water tables are incredibly difficult to clean. So I think we will have a contaminated aquifer in the area of the Fukushima site for a long, long time to come." 
Unfortunately, the history of nuclear disasters appears to back Gundersen's assessment.
"With Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, and now with Fukushima, you can pinpoint the exact day and time they started," he said, "But they never end."

Since nuclear "cleanups", including de-commissioning current nuclear plants is impossible at the moment... is there any reason to think that the situation will improve in the absence of fossil fuels? Keep in mind that nuclear waste is deadly for tens of thousands of years... and we have less than 100 years of fossil fuels left.

This is what happens when lawyers and Special Interest Groups (I have to rinse my mouth out every time I say those 3 words) run the most technologically advanced society in the world.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Gary Johson, Greece, Oil

In case you missed it, here is the link to Governor Gary Johnson's viral response to the Republican "debate". I must say, the Libertarian/Constitutionalist view point would seem ascendent. His views on abortion (government out of the equation, including government funding), Medicare (back to the states before it destroys the Feds), well, not so much on immigration..., Energy (free market not government)

Here is a link to my webcast rant on the War on Drugs and prison/industrial complex. Its 15 minutes. With practice, I will get the hang of it...

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The sell off in equities and Oil today was blamed in the media on Greece. I will reserve judgment on that... I increased shorts and cut longs... my sense remains that one big deflationary wave is in the cards... weather  or not this is it I cannot say... but when it comes, you don't want to stand in front of the avalanche, and you want to be there to pick up Oil if/when that comes to pass.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Libertarian Animal Talk Radio

I have been threatening to produce a Libertarian/Constitutionalist Talk Radio Show for some time. Yesterday, a friend of mine held my feet to the fire and had me step up to a microphone - completely unprepared and sick as a dog - for a rant. This is what came out.

The media is chock full of nuts from both sides of a failed argument. I am going to take a run at this; first as a webcast series and then (with any luck) on brokered broadcast radio.

I will post my stuff here and at my other blog "Libertariananimal.blogspot.com".

Feel free to critique away, my email is libertariananimal (at) gmail (d0t) com

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Don't know how many of you caught this. A Miami Beach police officer pointed a gun at an innocent bystander for filming a police shooting. This is serious stuff; the kind of stuff that can lead to civil unrest and entire cities being burned to the ground. Having goose-stepping-NAZI-garbed thugs threatening to KILL (that's what pointing a gun at somebody's head is... a threat to kill) for having the temerity and audacity to witness and record a government worker is not going to lead anywhere else.  I have lived in South Florida for most of my adult life and I am AT LEAST as terrified of the cops as I am the criminals. And Miami Beach? That city will never see a nickel of my money. That city's government has lost its humanity.

Here is one of the videos. You can google more for yourself.

BTW... a gun was found in the car. Maybe the driver DID threaten a police officer with it. In that case, the police MAY have been justified (and maybe they were not... it has been reported that 4 innocent bystanders were wounded). Or, given the police department in question... maybe the gun materialized in the deceased's car after the fact. I will leave that to Internal Affairs, although I have little faith in them, either.  Like I said: The answer for thinking people is to boycott this city. Starve them of the resources needed to continue this insanity. Unfortunately, the risk that NON-thinking people will take matters into their own hands is very, very real.




Sunday, June 12, 2011

"Weiner Denial"

I am especially enjoying the "Three Ring Circus" Washington has devolved into regarding the Weiner "scandal"!!!!!

ROLF!!!!! LMAQ!!!!! F-ING LMAO!!! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!

Sorry. That got away from me. The Dems want a man to resign from Congress for NOT HAVING AN AFFAIR? (OK, the writer in the link is a bit over the top regarding impeaching GWB... some of the other points are very well made.)

I am amused because I am watching a group of so-called adults, every one of them has either committed one of more of the following):

Had phone sex, used pornography for "personal reasons", engaged in extra-marital physical contact (which is worse as far as cheating? Kissing someone who is not your spouse or phone sex without  physical contact with someone who is not your spouse), or something far, far more significant - EVERY F***ING ONE OF THEM... this goes for the press folks covering this, the politicians themselves, and the hypocrites back home.

For a Christian nation, it seems to me most Americans missed one of the most significant tenants of that belief system issued during the Sermon on the Mount: "Do not judge others, lest you be judged". I believe He was speaking about such things... venal rather than mortal sin... even a secular guy like me can be pretty sure this does not rise to the level of mortal sin...

America the FOS!!!

Obama's re-election bid, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has announced plans to "increase production". Perhaps this is factual. Perhaps KSA will simply spend down inventories. We will need more data and time to determine what is actually occurring.

I have been noodling the Administration's handling of Israel of late.... and my deeply suspicious nature can't help but put it all together this way:

Obama realizes that he has little chance of capturing the votes of pro-Israel conservatives and Libertarians (like me), and little risk of losing the American Liberal/Jewish vote. Ergo, he has little risk in taking a less than pro-Israeli position in the "peace process" (read: border negotiations). The Administration now has something with which to bargain with the Saudi's... after all, the Saudi establishment is on pins and needles over the Arab Spring thing... Obama offers to give KSA something with which they can use to placate their masses, and the KSA tries to help Obama by releasing more Oil in effort to put pressure on Oil prices (shades of Reagan and KSA and the USSR) , who would have a tough time getting re-elected if gasoline is north of $4 per gallon, with zero chance at $5 per gallon - particularly given the demographic train wreck facing the Left (after all, who IS the Left? Pro-abortion feminists, gays, beta-thru-delta males et al that quite simply don't have enough children to carry on their socio/economic/political legacy.... one look at California is all you need... hispanics are overwhelmingly Catholic and pro-Life/family, and they are going to DOMINATE California as well as all of the other border states.... like I always say: those who breed, succeed... they also get to write all of the history books).

For those that would deny this... your explanation is that your guy is dumb... I assure you, he is not... if I were working as one of his strategists, doing anything and everything to keep gasoline prices down until after the election would be job #1. This more than a plausible explanation of Obama's handling of Israel.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Corn Crop at Risk

The USDA, and everybody else, has downgraded the U.S. corn crop.

Inventories were already in horrible shape. In the past, I made the assertion that since so much of the corn crop - and corn is the basis for the poultry, egg, dairy, and meat supply in the U.S. as the system is presently constructed - goes for ethanol that there was little or no chance of a sudden onset food shortage. Perhaps. Then again, perhaps not.

Corn cannot be manufactured. Either it is there at the end of the harvest, or it is not. Yes, we could cut back on ethanol production and divert that material to food production... but the fact is that most of these "brewer's grains" (the material left over after fermenting corn into ethanol) DO MAKE IT back to the feed market... it is not simply "fuel or feed", although the energy in the distilled ethanol certainly came from those grains and is not available in the remaining feedstuffs. Ergo, the supposed "slack" I envisioned isn't there to the magnitude I had suggested. The fact is is that consumption has outstripped production for most of the years in the past decade... it is factual and accurate to say that the U.S. population is at the mercy of the weather for each individual crop from now on, and the weather is simply not cooperating of late.

I would have no idea how to how to assign risk or probability to the issue, but it would seem that the risk is much higher than my previous assessment.

A partial solution will possibly be in the unwinding of the geographical concentration of meat, egg, and milk production... in short, localization would seem to offer some measure of solution, much as it is done in much of the world, even industrialized nations.

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Given the media's fascination with our political leader's lack of self-control... I found this article fascinating.  I love empirical data. One thing none of the studies appeared to have measured was the other side of the equation: How would the subjects respond if the total volume of tempting input was lowered? Is it relative deprivation? Or total?

Since "I've been rich and I've been poor"... I can confidently say that the stress associated with being poor is, to my mind, accurately recounted in the article.
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Oil in much of the world is near $120 per barrel. Libya's supply as been missing for 6 months. Shouldn't that spare capacity everybody speaks of have shown up by now? If it does, Oil prices will fall. If it does not... look for prices to trade from $100 to $150 for Brent, and $90 to $135 for WTI. With Nat Gas futures out on the curve firming, things are looking nothing but good for the Oil patch.

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While I DESPISE the politics of Anthony Weiner, and I don't think much of his decision making, I DO THINK that whether or not he remains seated in the House of Representatives is up to his constituents - not the Democratic Party Establishment, the Media, The Feminists, the Religious Right, etc... America has MANY, MANY cultures... I was born and raised in Metro New York City... people there might just feel differently about just how serious Weiner's transgressions were than people from rural Tennessee.

But look ahead, folks... pretty soon, the media is going to corner some politician over his sex life... and the Pol is going to respond: "Yea? So?"

Hopefully that will be the end of this B.S.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

OPEC

OPEC has decided to leave production quota's unchanged.

Well, whoopty-freaking-do.

OPEC doesn't matter anymore. Only Saudi Arabia matters. OPEC needs to appear to matter a little longer, and for whatever reason, that seems to be OK with KSA. What was OPEC going to do? Announce a 2 million barrel per day increase effective immediately? Then what? Wouldn't they actually have to deliver?

My bet is that there is little to no spare capacity, including KSA.  I didn't say for sure... that's just what I think is the case, and I believe this because prices are high enough to encourage production from any and every quarter... forget WTI, Brent is almost $120.  That is serious incentive. I am long again (actually more short puts than straight long, but I am long, too).

QE3 is not coming anytime soon... Oil production has little left to increase with... but there is certainly a great deal more $100 oil around than we thought in 2005 - 2008 as it turns out.

The Oil slog continues...

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

How the Social Conservatives and the Feminists MIGHT bring down the West

I find it kind amusing, and hugely ironic, that I find myself coming to the rescue of 2 Leftist Jackasses in 1 week.

First, John Edwards... and now Anthony Weiner.

Sexual fidelity should be the ideal. Failing this ideal must not be judged too (or so) harshly.

Before you freak out on me... give me a minute and lend me an open (and un-hypocritical... I know what you have done) ear.

Let me start with my assertion. It is BEYOND un/non P.C. Here it is:

If the Social Conservatives and feminists persist in their criminalization, demonization, and voyeur like outing of sexual transgressions, the result will be that people will stop everything else that society considers positive long before they will stop having sex! Or thinking about sex, or asking members of the opposite sex, or tweeting about sex, or visiting porn sites to watch sex...

They will stop marrying, with all of that outcome's concomitant effects (take the African American population's issues - things like 75% of children being born to unwed mothers and 90% of African American children needing government food assistance at some point in during their childhood - and spread it around to the white/hispanic/asian American communities): They will stop forming committed families, stop having 4th of July BBQ's, stop saving for their children's college, and taking them to little league, etc... BEFORE they would let you force them into not having sex.

If you folks persist at outing people's transgressions... young people WILL RESPOND! (Old people, people over 40, don't grasp this... hey folks, we're done! Stick a fork in us! We are stuck where we are! The young are not). And they won't respond by changing human nature ONE F***ING BIT. They will respond to the OTHER side of the equation! They will not commit to a family unit! Rather than being humiliated and made a spectacle of (much like this generation's response to watching their contemporaries become devastated financially in divorce court) by this unbelievable technology we now have of watching everybody, all day, every day... the next generation will refuse to be drawn in! THEY WILL ARRANGE THEIR LIVES AS FREE AGENTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But they will have sex. And that means babies. And without committed, EVEN IF IMPERFECT, relationships by their parents that means multiple fathers for most mothers, mix and match families, often more grandparents than cousins, and the MAJORITY of children will grow up in America suffering from the same issues now plaguing the African-American minority.

The internet, smart phones, and video technology along with asinine political agendas are going to overwhelm us. In fact, I think they are going to destroy us if you jag-offs keep it up.

People ALWAYS respond. There are ALWAYS unintended consequences. For years now, women have been betraying their lovers and claiming victimhood; today a man rented a billboard to proclaim his ex aborted his child!  You think these are unrelated? You have rocks in your head. Everybody is a victim. And everybody is entitled to shout the most personal information on the Internet (or in this case, a Billboard). We have Reality TV shows that follow cheating spouses and lovers! How much longer before we have a web site detailing your abortions? This does not belong in the public domain... but its impossible to stuff the shaving cream back in the can....

In your battle to scratch each other's eyes out you Social Conservatives and Feminist/Liberals might just bring down the house around the rest of us.

I beg you to stop what you are doing.

Monday, June 6, 2011

Wiener's Frank and Beans

Dear Congressman Anthony Weiner:

I completely forgive you for the photo of your "frank and beans" on Twitter. If a picture of me with plumber's butt taken while I am out milking the cow makes its way onto the web, well, I hope you will forgive me, too.

Look, Congressman, I know the deal... when it comes to sex we are ALL completely full of sh#! You, too. No big deal. You see, I am a thinking man... and I think your policies suck! I think you are a schmuck! But I don't think its any of our business what pictures you send to who. I pray everyday that American's will stop this voyeur "gotcha" B.S..... but think about it, bro. At least half of this is sh#! is your side's fault. Anything for a vote. You guys are the folks that encouraged and pandered to the loonies over at the Church of Oprah. Yea, I know... The Right did the same stuff with those churches down south... the ones where the preacher rails against the "abomination" of homosexuality, and then leaves the service to get serviced by a male masseuse versed in the chapter and verse of the never ending happy ending.

I think its time we all came clean. Or dirty. Your love life is none of my business. You could start by reeling in your Feminazi's. The Right could reciprocate by tucking in their hypocrisies.... but its not going to happen. Nope. We have too large a chunk of the population believing in fairy tales and pixy dust, always insisting on being forgiven, never willing to forgive.

Sincerely yours,


He Who Lives In a Glass House (and who doesn't throw stones because he had more fun than the law allows and people would hate him if they knew just how much fun).

It Just Gets Deeper and Deeper

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong." -- Thomas Sowell

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Regular commenter and fellow curmudgeon (one of my highest compliments) Donal sent this link on the report from the Global Commission on Drug Policy to me recently:

I am sure many of you have seen it. Here is a link to the actual report.

Most thinking people feel that drug use, at the very least, should be decriminalized... so who is it, exactly, that doesn't want to stop accusing individuals of a crime, and arresting them (which often means slamming people's heads on car hoods or the pavement; or pointing guns at people and accidently shooting them.... does anybody besides me think that guns are worse for people than drugs?) and putting them in jail, for drug use?

Cui Bono (who benefits?)

Lawyers: The legal profession would be flat on its back in the absence of drug offenses (including driving while intoxicated, something I am very much in favor of using law enforcement to influence people to not do). For every big time securities lawyer in Manhattan, there are several dozen work-a-day lawyers throughout the country whose bread and butter is minor drug crime (and divorce law).

Law Enforcement: Our drug laws are the "gift that keeps on giving" to Law Enforcement and their budgets. Once someone is labeled a criminal, they find employment more and more difficult to find... almost ensuring their recidivism. While in the poke, these folks tend to congregate, forging lifetime connections us folks on the outside call "Gangs".  Said gangs encourage their members to continue "the life", landing them in prison again and again... one of the unintended consequences of all of this is these people are unable to support their children, and these children grow up in poverty and abuse and anger, to replace their fathers as they themselves enter "criminal menopause". Hell of thing.

Corrections personnel: (No offense, tweel!) Over the past 25 years, California has built 25 new prisons and only 1 new college. Not that we need any more colleges... but something in that data point just jumps out at me.

Judges and Politicians: NO ONE becomes a judge or politician absent an incredible ego... my experience tells me that while people think politicians are the worst offender. I think that that is because they have not watched the nation's judiciary in action.

Organized Crime: The last thing these guys want or need is some nice little old lady growing marijuana next to her petunias. If drugs use was decriminalized the price of illicit drugs would simply implode, overnight. Organized crime would have to go back to prostitution and gambling. Oh, wait! Gambling has been pretty much been legalized... that would leave prostitution... and there's  just not a lot of money there to support our nation's criminal network. (Of course, Law Enforcement can see where this is going, and they are defending their budgets with their own propaganda about human trafficking... and they will get some help, irrespective of the facts, the numbers, or truth itself, from that other SIG (that I detest but shall remain nameless) in this regard. That our politicians refuse to acknowledge the economic reality of this is crime in and of itself.

That these groups will be able to hold back the eventual legalization of drugs is extremely doubtful. In the meantime, they will kill as many non-violent drug users (hey, in the 20's Law Enforcement killed people for consuming alcohol!) as they can and collect as much salary and pension as they can. Just how many young lives need to snuffed out in a hail of gunfire from Law Enforcement before we stop this madness? I don't know, and am saddened that there has not been enough.

I am always extremely doubtful that our Creator would give any leeway on his "Thou Shalt Not Kill" to members of Law Enforcement in connection with these abusive SWAT team tactics that keep killing non-violent individuals involved with illicit drugs. I also think it highly likely that people will start to take matters, and revenge, into their own hands, and that this is exactly what this SIG wants. They need a crisis, or their budgets are going to get cut.

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Nothing much going on in the Oil Patch - for now. I expect that to change relatively soon.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Of Bastards and Cuckholds

People that have sex will invariably become pregnant. Nature cares little for social niceties, legal bindings, and personal conveniences.

As Kathy so rightly points out in a comment in my previous post, it IS a much bigger deal when a child is born to an illicit affair. There is no question about that! If my wife came to me and said she was pregnant with another man's child, I might not remain married to her... but I definitely will not have the blood of that child on MY hands by encouraging her to abort the child.

Both Left and Right, Abortion supporters and foes... need to put their heads around the implications from the advancements in technology... i.e., Photos and commentary on the Internet to spread rumor and innuendo (worse when it is true) and DNA technology to remove all doubt of parentage.

I know this is a touchy subject... but please follow my line of reasoning:

If women and men are brought together they will have sex, irrespective of the time, place, or circumstance.

WHEN, not if, people have sex, pregnancies will result... irrespective of whether one is married, convenience, propriety, etc...

In this era, someone will ALWAYS try to make political hay from this. Feminists, the religious Right, etc... (it is not possible for me to heap enough scorn on these people. They are not just hypocrites... they are sub-human. The worst of the hypocrites? Hollywood and the Media. These people ALWAYS align with Feminist Left - except when the Feminists agenda affects THEM. How so? When Hollywood marries, which is not often, it is NEVER absent a pre-nup... in other words, they support the Women's Movement mandate of terrorist "family law"... except when it has to do with them....  "do as I say, not as I do"... BTW... I am a BIG BELIEVER in pre-nups as they take the government out of your marriage... and contrary to what some might believe.... these agreements have become enshrined in our jurisprudence, and are not often overturned - if ever. That was soooooo 1980's).

Regardless of said political hay, people will continue to have sex (does ANYBODY doubt this?). This is simply an unstoppable fact of our existence.

Therefore, they will continue to get pregnant.

That these children still deserve to live, irrespective of the circumstances of their birth, and that the birth should be allowed to take place and nature to take its course, should STILL be the view of those that respect the sanctity of life.

Supporters of the Pro-Life position should come to the rescue of Mr. Edwards and Mr. Schwarzenegger and their lovers for respecting the sanctity of Life. The sins of sex outside of marriage are venal, and are simply incomparable with the sin of destroying a human life (I use the word "sin" colloquially, as I tend toward the secular). The Pro-Abortion Feminists are welcome to grind at these individuals for embarrassing themselves - and more importantly to this group, their wives - as they see fit (I am a Libertarian; censorship is "not my bag, baby"), and; people like me are permitted to point out the inconsistencies and faults in their reasoning (and make glorious fun of their inability to reason. Its almost not fair, sort of like being in a duel with an unarmed opponent).

The spouses of the cheaters are free to decide whether or not to remain in the marriage, to live their life in perpetual rage or forgiveness as they so choose.

Life is so short... and it seems to me that these forces, the forces to control the reproductive outcomes of people, have been raging since time immemorial - and Nature continues to win the argument.

The idea that one can use FORCE - physical violence or the institutional violence of present day family law - to control the reproductive efforts of other people is inconstant at its base, and in the extreme. Really want a faithful spouse? You'll catch more flies with honey than vinegar... There is no such thing as a "carrot and a stick" when it comes to this subject. It is ALL "carrot". The "stick" simply does not work. Yet the Feminist agenda has been, and continues to be, ALL "STICK" - with all of the attendant outcomes I have mentioned.

Think about it! Is anybody terribly happy with the outcome?  Then somewhere along the line we need to change the equation. In the same way that I reject the use of government force to enforce a ban on abortion, I reject the use of government force to maintain sexual fidelity. Sexual fidelity with your partner is something you must put a great deal of POSITIVE effort into - no amount of violence, physical or institutional, will answer. And when our efforts in this vein fails, punishment, or worse, revenge, will simply not satisfy. I cannot fathom why anyone would want to spend this beautiful yet very short life dwelling on how they might change these natural laws... but they do. (For better or worse, or just because it is... some people absolutely, positively have no reason to expect, and are in NO WAY deserving, of a faithful spouse. Think about that for a moment. There are plenty of circumstances where people are STUCK with lousy/crummy spouses... it is sooooooo easy to pontificate to these unfortunate souls, but for my part I refuse.)

I am merely examining this, and throwing the yellow flag for a foul against  reason. There is no guarantee that the person you love now will always love and want you... or you them. There is absolutely NO DIFFERENCE between John Edwards cheating on his wife and a wife leaving/filing for divorce from a faithful husband. NONE.  Each brought an outsider in in order to destroy their bond (by some miracle the Feminist/Left has convinced people that there is a difference). These are the circumstances of this Life. I simply reject the idea that any child conceived in this drama is any less entitled to Life than you or I. Ergo, I find the behavior of John and Arnold somewhat less reprehensible than members of the "Women's movement" seem to do.

Nobody is perfect... but Life IS good.

Saturday, June 4, 2011

John Edwards cont

In my first post of he series "Feminists vs the Cheaters", I made the assertion, still unchallenged by any rational Lefty, that the reason Edwards and Arnold were being shredded by the Feminist Left was not that they had had affairs... but because they and their lovers did not have abortions.

Elizabeth Edwards stood by her man, and rightly so, when he admitted to the affair. It was months later, when John Edwards' admitted to having fathered a child, that his wife separated from him. I make no criticism of Mrs. Edwards. I am just laying down the time line.

A quote from OpenSecrets.org:


Edwards first acknowledged an extramarital affair with campaign videographer Rielle Hunter in the summer of 2008, months after he pulled out of the presidential race. 
Then in January, after publicly denying it for months, Edwards confirmed that he is the father of Hunter’s young daughter, Quinn. Edwards and his wife Elizabeth, a breast cancer patient who stayed by her husband’s side when he originally acknowledged the affair, have since separated in the wake of this newest development.

Does ANYBODY out there want to counter my assertion that the problem here was not an affair... the problem was the child.

John Edwards and Arnold are no sleezier than Bill Clinton... although Clinton was more judicious in his choice of sexual acts... and certainly not in the same league as Ted Kennedy who f***ing drowned a young woman in a car accident and did not bother to attempt to rescue her... the Feminist Left had no problem doing business with him for decades after that incident... apparently drowning a young woman is somehow less of an offense to these sh*t heads than fathering a child...

Please find a feminist to counter my assertions, or better yet, to have the courage to confirm them.

Let me do some math for you on this subject.

Do you have any idea of how many No Tell/Motel rooms there are in this country? Any idea how many  adult female (and male) sex workers are plying their trade in the U.S.? How many clandestine trysts took place last night? By mathematical necessity, there are an awful lot "cheaters" out there. Are they all sleezeballs? Should we fund an "adultery squad" in every Law Enforcement precinct?

Does anybody read Freud anymore? Anybody wonder what the driving force behind building huge companies, and real estate empires, and recording platinum albums, or making $20 million per film as a movie star, or becoming Governor/Senator/President? Anybody think these guys do this so that they can limit their sexual opportunities?  Really!!??

Men are already refusing to marry, or a marrying very, very late - and with a 95 page pre-nup agreement - and even then they divorcing early. What is it the Feminists/Left hope to accomplish here with John Edwards? In their grab for power they seem oblivious to the very serious unintended consequences of their actions. The marriage market is not a vacuum! For 30 or 40 years, men watched - in horror - the mangling of married men in divorce court... and long before the end of that period the pre-nuptial agreement comes into being. Is that a coincidence? These agreements essentially wound the clock back to the late 19th century as far as the non-asset/non-earning (or lesser earning) spouse was concerned... did the Feminist/Left see that one coming? Nope. Then men decided not to marry at all... What was "gained" by Feminist/Left in the radicalization of family law since the 1960's was literally destroyed in just a few short years by the marketplace... today's women are worse off financially than their mothers and grandmothers, with 3X more of today's 40+ women having ZERO family or husband to turn to than 50 years ago... tell me again how this helped women?

The Edwards thing might go right over the heads of a lot of men... but not those in the economic establishment. They are not as dumb as they look. These men WILL respond. These forces are not released in a vacuum. Nothing will be gained... actually much more will be lost.

And another nail will have been driven into the coffin of the body politic and the Constitution.

Friday, June 3, 2011

Indictment of John Edwards is an OUTRAGE

I despise most of the policies of John Edwards.

Having read the law and the facts, I can only can conclude that his indictment is a f***ing OUTRAGE! He has pissed off TPTB in the Feminist wing of the Democrats. They want their pound of flesh.

I PRAY he does not take a plea... he has a better than 50/50 shot at dismissal at trial, and a 99% chance of reversal of any conviction on appeal.

The sad fact is is that this is a lynching.

This is yet again another GLARING example of how our Grand Jury system is irretrievably broken.  As the saying goes, a prosecutor could get a ham sandwich indicted... so what protection is being offered to the targets of investigations? How can you be nation of laws if the only way to avail yourself of their protection is if you have $5 million for legal fees?

This is an outrage.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Moving Right Along...

When things get slow in the world, along with energy, markets, and the politics of these 2 I can't help but point out the stunning level of propaganda and the sordid attempts by Special Interest Groups to manipulate  and influence the public. It simply boggles the mind. Well, if you think about it does.

Wall Street, Banks, the Military, Feminists, Ethnic Groups, Trade Groups, Municipal Employees, Religious Organizations, the Clergy, Law Enforcement... the freaking list of propagandists seems endless.

No article having to do with government funding, payrolls, or contracts makes its way into the Main Stream Media without sponsorship. Never. Nunca. Not under any circumstance. They are bought and paid for, sometimes with blood money.

There are no sacred cows here at the American Energy Crisis. I am not running for office, so I don't need your vote. I don't need a job, so I don't have to worry about human resources searching me out. 

I have been noodling a few things... stay tuned... in the mean time, here's George Carlin at his best.

Feminists - cont.

Please read this excellent article in Newsweek: The Failure of Feminism.

Now, look at the date the article was written! 1990!!

Given our benefit of hindsight, most of us recognize that the author had only the benefit of half of our experience with the Feminist experiment.

Societies the world over came up with systems for ensuring the successful launch of the next generation. Western Feminism attacked those systems as being incompatible with equality.

Fair enough. Now, shouldn't they need to show the systems that they envisioned would be an improvement for all concerned?

Can any of you point to a system(s) for raising children that has been proposed by the Women's movement/Feminists to replace those that evolved over the eons?

Look, I get it. These individuals felt the system did not serve their needs... but clearly, given their own peculiar demographic, they were NOT considering an offspring generation as one of their needs... it seems that their solution was either a childless competition with men in the Corporate and Government world (the current women on the Supreme Court, and there are 3, are all childless!) or an only child born at an age (the mother's age) advanced enough to require scientific input after excreting in petri dishes... and sans a man in the house.

And for the millions of women who did marry... from my perspective, the "Movement" absolved them of ALL responsibility in keeping their home intact.  For those that doubt this:

What, exactly, are the requirements of a woman in a marriage? I often hear "to be loving". OK WTF does that mean, again EXACTLY? We can see clearly from the Arnold/John Edwards case that men are expected to be sexually faithful to their wives... what are the responsibilities of their wives? Do they have any? Look, show me a bed hopping spouse of either sex... and I will show you a contra party that is simply not taking care of business at home - and "not taking care of business" comes in many, many formats.

Do people have a responsibility to their spouse to reasonably maintain their physical attractiveness? Do we have a responsibility to keep it fun? To fulfill our partner's needs? And do this while working and providing for the children? I think we do, and well, we all know with little doubt what will happen if an individual's needs for food, shelter, sexual gratification et al are not met... the individual will do what needs to be done. For some reason Americans just can't seem to come to grips with this in open dialogue (with the exception of Chris Rock... warning, very UN-pc... yet in his own vulgar way, h captures the truth of it... if you deny this, why does it seem to ring so true to his audience?).

Lastly, and this one is really gonna hurt...

Do we have a responsibility to forgive? To accept human frailties and the various shades of a very, very grey, as opposed to a black and white, world?

Absof**kinlutely.

Is there anything in the Feminists dogma that would lead you to believe the world is anything but black and white, right and wrong... and that they are always right?

Not a f***ing thing.

For better or worse, none of their positions matter in the long run. No one, the Shakers, the Feminists, whoever... can win a multi-generational political battle by not breeding. The danger is that they take a society down in between here and said long run.

The Feminists have left us with 2, rather unpleasant "accomplishments" (their words, not mine) - Divorce (and now a generation of men refusing to marry) and abortion "rights". I say this to the unrepentant Feminist:

In your search for Truth and Beauty in the world... I respectfully submit that neither will be found in a divorce lawyer's office nor the sterile, heartless and cruel environment of an abortion clinic. It is axiomatic that Life is better than Death, Love better than Hate, and Peace of Mind and Heart a damn sight better than a life dedicated to an anger that can never be satiated.

Yours for a better world,

Greg